The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 14 FIRST LOOK December 6, 2016  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 14. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.


QB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ BUFCam Newton (CAR) vs SDTyrod Taylor (BUF) vs PIT
Andy Dalton (CIN) @ CLEKirk Cousins (WSH) @ PHIPhilip Rivers (SD) @ CAR
Matthew Stafford (DET) vs CHIEli Manning (NYG) vs DALMatt Barkley (CHI) vs DET
Andrew Luck (IND) vs HOUTom Brady (NE) vs BALRyan Tannehill (MIA) vs ARI
Carson Palmer (ARI) @ MIATrevor Siemian (DEN) @ TEN
Jameis Winston (TB) vs NOJared Goff (LA) vs ATL
Russell Wilson (SEA) vs GB
Matt Ryan (ATL) @ LA
Dak Prescott (DAL) @ NYG
Joe Flacco (BAL) @ NE

 

– Oh my goodness, what a week we have in front of us right here…and just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Good thing we play DFS where every week is a new beginning and we aren’t stuck with a stud in a garbage matchup. Here is a list of QBs that I won’t touch this week: Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota, Aaron Rodgers, and Dak Prescott (along with the legit bad QBs like Osweiler, who I wouldn’t touch with YOUR team). Normally this is the exact type of week that I’d go all in on Drew Brees – stud QB coming off a bad matchup with another bad matchup. The ownership is going to be low, and I love that. The problem is, I have no faith in Brees to get it done in an outdoors game against an ever-improving Bucs’ defense. I’d much rather spend my money elsewhere. I just don’t want to put my faith in a name-brand QB coming up big in a bad spot. I’d rather spend down or look at other stud QBs instead. For instance, Matthew Stafford has a great matchup at home against a banged up Bears’ secondary, Jameis Winston is playing a terrible New Orleans’ defense at home with a top 5 WR at his disposal, and Andy Dalton gets to face the Browns. I’m comfortable using all three of those guys, with Winston probably at the top of that list. I’ll most likely avoid Ryan and Luck as well, although I’d probably prefer Ryan over Luck.

– It’s early in the week, but I think my favorite QB play this week is going to be Cam Newton. He’s coming off a terrible start in Week 13 and Carolina is holding on to the slimmest of playoff hopes. They are in a great spot against a SD team coming east to play an early game. The total is a nice and high 48 points, and we’ve got a close spread as well. That means lots of opportunity for Cam to put up points. He’ll probably end up a little chalkier than I have him right now, but I’m hoping the general public will shy away from him after his poor game on Sunday night. Eli Manning loves facing Dallas, but you have remember that he’s still Eli Manning and that 4 INT game is always right around the corner.

– With the spread the way it is and the Panthers playing such bad defense, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rivers put up a top 8 week at QB in Week 14. This could be a real shootout. I continue to think that the Cardinals’ defense is exploitable, especially from the WR2 position. That means that Tannehill could have himself a game if he targets an emerging DeVante Parker. If Trevor Siemian is able to play this weekend, he faces a Tennessee team that gives up a ton of passing points. We saw what he can do against a rough secondary when he torched the Chiefs two weeks ago; a similar game could be in the offing against the Titans.


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
LeSean McCoy (BUF) vs PITJonathan Stewart (CAR) vs SDMike Gillislee (BUF) vs PIT
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) @ BUFJeremy Hill (CIN) @ CLEJay Ajayi (MIA) vs ARI
Melvin Gordon (SD) @ CARTheo Riddick (DET) vs CHIDeMarco Murray (TEN) vs DEN
Jordan Howard (CHI) @ DETRobert Kelley (WSH) @ PHITodd Gurley (LA) vs ATL
David Johnson (ARI) @ MIAMatt Forte (NYJ) @ SFRashad Jennings (NYG) vs DAL
Thomas Rawls (SEA) vs GBDevonta Freeman (ATL) @ LAKenneth Dixon (BAL) @ NE
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) @ NYGTerrance West (BAL) @ NELeGarrette Blount (NE) vs BAL
TJ Yeldon (JAX) vs MIN

 

– Who isn’t going to be on Thomas Rawls this weekend? He’s clearly back to full strength and should be able to tear up a Packers’ run defense whose stats mask a very weak unit. He’s priced very well so he doesn’t even need a monster game to pay off for you. He may be really chalk, but that doesn’t mean that I’m doing to fade him. I’ll probably be on McCoy, Bell, Johnson, and Elliott as well because they have been very reliable and I like reliability about my RB position if I’m going to spend up. Johnson is by far my top choice of that group.

– I love Jeremy Hill this weekend. The Browns have a pitiful run defense and Hill is getting all the work for the Bengals. Even with his dreadful YPC last weekend, he still got 23 carries. If he sees that many touches against this weekend, he should be good for 100 yards and a score. I’m hoping confidence is down on him from the general public because I’m sure it won’t be from the sharks. Matt Forte is another RB I’m very high on given his large expected workload against a historically bad 49ers’ rush defense. They just gave up 3 rushing TD’s to Jordan Howard and it wasn’t close to their worst performance of the season. Even the inept Jets should be able to run on them. Devonta Freeman continues to put up RB2 numbers at RB3 levels of ownership.

– Last week I called a good game out of DeAndre Hopkins and this week I’m calling it for Todd Gurley. He’s going to have to break out at some point this year, isn’t he? This is going to be his 100 yard, 2 TD monster game. It’s so sad that this is what it’s come down to with Gurley. On the bright side, he’s stupid cheap against the 2nd worst rush defense in fantasy. Don’t forget about DeMarco Murray this weekend. Denver is not a great rushing D; if Tennessee is going to score any points it’s going to be via the run. Murray should have a heavy workload and is one of my favorite plays of the week due to the contrarian nature of using him. Is TJ Yeldon a thing now? He had 18 touches for 82 yards against DEN last week and faces a Vikings’ D that can be exploited by pass catching RBs. Yeldon averages over three catches a game in limited work this year, so we know he has the potential to do some damage this weekend at a very low price.

 


WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ BUFSammy Watkins (BUF) vs PITTyler Boyd (CIN) @ CLE
Tyrell Williams (SD) @ CARBrandon LaFell (CIN) @ CECameron Meredith (CHI) @ DET
Golden Tate (DET) vs CHITerrelle Pryor (CLE) vs CINAdam Theilen (MIN) @ JAX
T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs HOUDeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ INDDeVante Parker (MIA) vs ARI
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) vs MIADonte Moncrief (IND) vs HOUJamison Crowder (WSH) @ PHI
DeSean Jackson (WSH) @ PHIJarvis Landry (MIA) vs ARIEmmanuel Sanders (DEN) @ TEN
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) @ TENDoug Baldwin (SEA) vs GBQuincy Enunwa (NYJ) @ SF
Brandon Marshall (NYJ) @ SFRandall Cobb (GB) @ SEAMichael Thomas (NO) @ TB
Mike Evans (TB) vs NODez Bryant (DAL) @ NYGTaylor Gabriel (ATL) @ LA
Tyler Lockett (SEA) vs GBJulian Edelman (NE) vs BALKenny Britt (LA) vs ATL
Jordy Nelson (GB) @ SEAMike Wallace (BAL) @ NEBreshad Perriman (BAL) @ NE
Davante Adams (GB) @ SEA
Julio Jones (ATL) @ LA
Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs DAL
Malcolm Mitchell (NE) vs BAL

 

– WR is so hard to peg down. We have to start 3 of them and there are just so many good ones to choose from. From the list of studs out there, I’d say that my two favorite plays are Mike Evans and Odell Beckham. We all know how great Evans is and now he gets to face the piss-poor Saints’ secondary at home. He’s an easy play for me in Week 14. There’s a misguided stigma surrounding OBJ this year that he’s having a bad season. In no way is that correct. The guy is averaging 10 targets and 85 yards per game on the season. He plays better at home (over 100 yards per game and 5 TD in 6 games) and there’s something about the Giants-Cowboys matchup. If his ownership ends up where I hope it does, I’m going to be all over him. I also really like Golden Tate, Tyrell Willams, and Demaryius Thomas this weekend (only if Siemian is starting). Tyler Lockett could be interesting against a bad GB defense but I’ll probably stick to the more reliable Doug Baldwin (or even, more likely, Thomas Rawls). I don’t think I’m going to be paying up for Julio, Brown, or Jordy this weekend. There is a little bit of interest from me in Davante Adams, but only if his ownership is lower than I’d expect.

– It looks like Sammy Watkins didn’t have a great game in Week 13 (and he didn’t)…but he really could have if Tyrod Taylor was a better QB. Watkins was targeted 9 times, but he only was able to haul in 3 passes. If he continues to see that volume of targets, then he’s going to be a productive WR3 for you. Can we get two good weeks in a row out of DeAndre Hopkins? I actually think that we might. I don’t know which CIN pass catcher is going to have a good game, but it’s going to be one of them (watch it be Cody Core).

– DeVante Parker is going to do things for the Dolphins this weekend. I keep talking about it, but #2 WRs for teams continue to do well against the Cardinals. We’ve got three weeks in a row (Theilen, Gabriel, Crowder) of proof to make me think that this is more than a fluke. Parker has slowly started to come on (64 yards or a TD in each of the last 4 weeks) and he should be good for another solid game this weekend. Breshad Perriman has scored a TD in 3 of the last 4 weeks. NE is a tough defense at home but, like Parker, he is slowly becoming a bigger part of this Ravens’ offense. I’m always good to take a look at Crowder and Michael Thomas because of their price/consistency combination.

 


TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Antonio Gates (SD) @ CARLadarius Green (PIT) @ BUFJermaine Gresham (ARI) @ MIA
Tyler Eifert (CIN) @ CLEEric Ebron (DET) vs CHIVance McDonald (SF) vs NYJ
Jordan Reed (WSH) @ PHICameron Brate (TB) vs NOJerell Adams (NYG) vs DAL
Jimmy Graham (SEA) vs GBZach Ertz (PHI) vs WSHDelanie Walker (TEN) vs DEN
Greg Olsen (CAR) vs SDJason Witten (DAL) @ NYG

 

– I don’t ever see the need to spend up on TE again this season. There are just too many decent mid to low priced options out there to choose from to waste money at this position. Yes, Olsen and Eifert and Reed and Graham will put up good number but I just don’t feel the need to spend there when I can do so with a more dynamic position like RB.

– Cameron Brate is a perfect guy to use in your GPP lineups even if he is chalkier than I anticipate. He’s cheap, he’s reliable, and he’s got a great matchup. With all the injuries at WR for the Bucs, he’s the de facto #2 WR for that team. Ladarius Green should also be in play with his ever expanding role in the Steelers’ offense, and his price still well below that of the elite TE tier. Zach Ertz might finally be coming around. He’s a very steady target for Wentz and a safe, if unspectacular, option at the position.

– Give me all the Jermaine Gresham this weekend! Last weekend he was near min-price and he put up a solid 5-52. This weekend he gets a Dolphins’ team that just gave up 9-90-2 to Dennis Pitta (his first 2 TD of the season). Gresham is in for a very nice game this weekend, and I’m going to have him everywhere. Vance McDonald should be able to bounce back against a Jets team that just gave up 3 TD to Dwayne Allen. Something tells me that the Giants are about to involve Jerell Adams in their offense more going forward. He’s a great athlete and he saw 3 targets in Week 13. I’m not sure if I have the stones to use him, but I just can’t shake the feeling that he’s got a 3-40-1 game in him this weekend.  DEN has some serious lockdown corners, but they can be exploited by a good TE. Walker is one of the best. Just keep that in mind if you want to spend up for TE but want to be contrarian as well. I can give that my blessing.

 


DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Cincinnati Bengals @ CLEDetroit Lions vs CHIBuffalo Bills vs PIT
Minnesota Vikings @ JAXDenver Broncos @ TENCarolina Panthers vs SD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs NOArizona Cardinals @ MIA
Tennessee Titans vs DEN
New York Giants vs DAL
Baltimore Ravens vs NE

 

– “Anyone against the Browns”, right? Cincy has a better defense than you realize and they put a hurting on the Eagles. That game was never close and it only looked as close as it did due to a late score that didn’t matter (unless you had the Bengals’ defense…stupid Darren Sproles). I’m good using them again this weekend. MIN should be good for at least one pick six (Bortles throws a few of those) and will put plenty of pressure on Jacksonville. Turnovers and sacks should come in bunches.

– Tampa Bay and Detroit are playing really solid defense right now, and I’m good using either of them. I’d prefer DET because of the opponent but the Bucs are really interesting contrarian option against “Outside” Drew Brees (a very different QB than “Dome” Drew Brees).

– I love some of these HuLo defenses this weekend. The Giants are playing pretty well right now and at some point Dak is going to play like a rookie. This is as good a game as any for that to happen. CAR has the talent on defense, but they’ve been playing so poorly. A west coast team coming east is a great way to get healthy. Big Ben on the road is like Drew Brees outside the dome and Buffalo can get at a QB. The Titans might not be able to stop the long pass, but they sure do get a lot of sacks. I’m probably just going to set it and forget it with MIN or DET but if I want to try to get a little contrarian, those are the teams I’m looking at.


Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

One Response

  1. Mike says:

    I have the Buf Defense on my roster but Det and Tenn are both available on our waiver wire. Would you add and start one of the waiver teams or stick with Buffalo for this week? Thank you.

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