The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 13 FIRST LOOK November 29, 2016  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 13. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.

 


QB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs KCMatt Barkley (CHI) vs SFJoe Flacco (BAL) vs MIA
Colin Kaepernick (SF) @ CHITrevor Siemian (DEN) @ JAXBrock Osweiler (HOU) @ GB
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs HOUDerek Carr (OAK) vs BUFJared Goff (LA) @ NE
Tom Brady (NE) vs LAJameis Winston (TB) @ SDTyrod Taylor (BUF) @ OAK
Matthew Stafford (DET) @ NOPhilip Rivers (SD) vs TBCarson Palmer (ARI) vs WSH
Drew Brees (NO) vs DETRyan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) vs INDCam Newton (CAR) @ SEA
Kirk Cousins (WSH) @ ARI
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs NYG
Eli Manning (NYG) @ PIT
Andrew Luck (IND) @ NYJ

 

-The good thing about doing an update for the weekend is that we should be able to slim this list of chalk QB’s down quite a bit. I mean, you can’t have 10 players that are the actual chalk. If I’m going to take a stab at nailing down the top 6 most widely owned QB’s this weekend I’m going to say that it’ll most likely be Keapernick, Stafford, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and Big Ben. I’d actually be shocked if Kaepernick isn’t the single most owned QB this week and for good reason. His floor is just so high because of his legs, and his upside is, well, look at what he did in Week 12 for his upside. CHI is a great matchup for him, and I expect him to pay off his steadily rising cost easily. The one QB from that list of six that I wouldn’t play this weekend is Brady. I know he had an OK game in Week 12, but he’s a different QB when Gronk isn’t in the lineup; at this point we just can’t trust him to be there for an entire game. My hope is that one of Ben, Brees, or Stafford gets overlooked. I love all three and would roster than even at a high ownership, but if I can get one under 10% owned, that would push him to the top of my list for this week. The best bet for that scenario is Roethlisberger against a “good” Giants defense. I’d love to use Ben because he’s the AFC version of Brees; doesn’t matter who he’s playing as long as he’s at home (337 yards, and 3.75 TD per game at home this year).  I’m also really intrigued by Kirk Cousins. I think he’s got the weapons to overcome a solid Cardinals pass defense.

– There are a lot of great matchups this weekend with high totals and small spreads. There’s really no reason to get cute or to miss at QB in Week 13. Ryan, Brees, Stafford, Cousins, Roethlisberger, Manning, Luck, Carr, Winston, and Rivers are all studs that fall into this category. Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick are less sure things that are involved in those close, high scoring games. You really don’t need to use a Brady (huge spread, low total), Palmer (too inconsistent), Rodgers (HOU pass D is pretty solid), or Newton (at SEA? No thanks). The only QB I’d really consider using that doesn’t fit that type of game is Kaepernick. I suppose that if I was going to get really cute I could consider Barkley or Osweiler, and in other weeks I just might do that, but I’m not even willing to go down to Taylor and Fitzpatrick. That’s basically a lot of rambling to say that there’s really no way that I’d take a huge chance with such uncertainty. I’ll lock in a stud and find my diversification elsewhere.


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Lamar Miller (HOU) @ GBSpencer Ware (KC) @ ATLDevonta Freeman (ATL) vs KC
Devontae Booker (DEN) @ JAXKenneth Dixon (BAL) vs MIAJay Ajayi (MIA) @ BAL
LeGarrette Blount (NE) vs LAJordan Howard (CHI) vs SFCarlos Hyde (SF) @ CHI
Mark Ingram (NO) vs DETDoug Martin (TB) @ SDWendell Smallwood (PHI) @ CIN
Theo Riddick (DET) @ NOMelvin Gordon (SD) vs TBChris Ivory (JAX) vs DEN
LeSean McCoy (BUF) @ OAKJonathan Stewart (CAR) @ SEALatavius Murray (OAK) vs BUF
David Johnson (ARI) vs WSHMatt Forte (NYJ) vs INDRobert Kelley (WSH) @ ARI
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) vs NYGRashad Jennings (NYG) @ PIT
Frank Gore (IND) @ NYJ

 

– I’m never going to tell you to not play Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson, but I just don’t think you need to this week. Both are in line for big games, but I want to spend up this week on QB and WR and I’m going to have to find some place to save. Punting TE and/or DST is just not going to save me the money that I need to make sure I get a top flight QB and a couple big WRs. I don’t love taking mid-range players with high ownership, but the price on a guy like Theo Riddick, given his matchup, might be too much to resist. I would love to get Shady McCoy at a discount, but that’s not happening either.

– I’m going to try to find some value with guys that the pros love but who might not be on the tip of the average player’s tongue. One of my favorite targets this weekend is Doug Martin. He gets to take on a weak SD run defense, and his price is nowhere near his talent level. He’s actually cheaper than Theo Riddck on some sites. Given the choice of the two, I’d much rather use Martin and his near guarantee of 20 touches. If you can find a site that has lowered the price on Melvin Gordon a little bit, I’d love to use him as a value play. He hasn’t done a ton over the last few weeks but the Bucs aren’t a great defense (despite their stellar last two weeks), and he should get back on track in Week 13. Jordan Howard wins the “who plays the 49ers this week” sweepstakes. I love how CHI uses Howard, although his price has come up quite a bit. Kenneth Dixon is about to take over the starting RB gig in BAL. He out-snapped Terrance West last week and has seen an increase in usage every game he’s played this year. MIA has been getting run all over despite their winning streak, and this could be a breakout game for Dixon. The matchup isn’t great, but Jonathan Stewart does get volume for a low price.

– The Bears have a surprisingly stout run defense, but that’s not going to stop me from looking at Hyde in the lineups where I don’t use Kaepernick. He’s priced so low and has such a high ceiling. If he can get 20 touches this weekend he’ll surely pay off his cost. I also won’t shy away from Freeman and Gore because of their TD upside. The matchups are tough, but nobody is going to own either of them. Latavius Murray keeps getting carries near the goal line so I’m more than happy to spend down to use him if I needed to save the cap space. Denver is a worse run defense than you realize; if Jacksonville has any hope of staying close in this game they are going to have to run the ball with Ivory. He looked good prior to getting injured on Sunday, so if he’s able to hobble back out this weekend, I’d take a shot on him as an RB punt.

 


WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Julio Jones (ATL) vs KCMike Wallace (BAL) vs MIADorial Green-Beckham (PHI) @ CIN
Taylor Gabriel (ATL) vs KCMarquess Wilson (CHI) vs SFRandall Cobb (GB) vs HOU
Devante Adams (GB) vs HOUJordy Nelson (GB) vs HOUDeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ GB
Julian Edelman (NE) vs LAMalcolm Mitchell (NE) vs LABrandin Cooks (NO) vs DET
Michael Thomas (NO) vs DETKenny Britt (LA) @ NEMarvin Jones (DET) @ NO
Golden Tate (DET) @ NOWillie Snead (NO) vs DETAmari Cooper (OAK) vs BUF
Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs BUFAnquan Boldin (DET) @ NODeSean Jackson (WSH) @ ARI
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) vs WSHSammy Watkins (BUF) @ OAKSterling Shepard (NYG) @ PIT
Jamison Crowder (WSH) @ ARIDontrelle Inman (SD) vs TBTed Ginn Jr (CAR) @ SEA
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs NYGDoug Baldwin (SEA) vs CARDemaryius Thomas (DEN) @ JAX
Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) @ PITDonte Moncrief (IND) @ NYJQuincy Enunwa (NYJ) vs IND
Mike Evans (TB) @ SDBrandon Marshall (NYJ) vs IND
Tyrell Williams (SD) vs TBMarqise Lee (JAX) vs DEN
T.Y. Hilton (IND) @ NYJ
Tyreek Hill (KC) @ ATL
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) @ JAX

 

– There are just too many WRs to even really nail down a favorite few this early in the week. That said, I’m targeting a lot of the big boys this weekend: Julio, AB, OBJ, and Evans are at the top of my list.  All of them have great matchups and all can be stacked with the QB for some hookup goodness.  A little further down in cost I also like Tyrell Williams and Jamison Crowder (assuming he avoids Patrick Peterson). Those are the studs that I’ll be focusing on this week most likely. If I can get any of them at a low ownership…bonus!

– I really like Sammy Watkins this weekend. He came out strong last week and this weekend gets the anemic Raiders’ secondary. It’s not a lock that he will break a long TD, but his odds are surely increased given the matchup. Malcolm Mitchell seems to be quickly gaining the trust of Tom Brady. He has 12 targets and 3 TD’s over the last two weeks. For a guy that’s nearly min-priced, you kind of have to consider him if you want to spend down at WR. Kenny Britt just keeps on rolling and now he appears to have a competent QB throwing to him. That works for me.  I don’t know how good Marquess Wilson is in the long term, but I do know that Matt Barkley seems to like him (8-125-1 last week) and SF is about as bad of a pass defense as the Titans are. Andrew Luck loves him some Moncrief, and the Jets can’t stop anyone deep. I can surely see a TD going Moncrief’s way, as it does most times he and Luck are in the lineup together. Denver has a great pass defense, but if they are focused on Allen Robinson, it’ll be Lee that benefits. Over the last 3 weeks he’s received 20 targets and scored 2 TD’s.  Brandon Marshall could have a monster last few weeks of the season. He and Fitz are in sync right now and the matchup is gold.

– The DET/NO game should provide some fireworks. After the total shutout from Brandin Cooks last week, I’m hoping that people have lost faith in him. I’m going all in on him. There’s no way that Brees lets the kid go without a target again this week. I’m predicting 10+ targets and a monster game from Cooks. He might be my #1 overall play this weekend. Another guy from that game that I’m looking to snag on the sly is Marvin Jones. He’s been awful for the last 6+ weeks but he’s slowly coming around and a game against the Saints is always a good thing. With defenses having to worry about Tate, Ebron, and Riddick, it could be Jones that has a big day.

– If DeAndre Hopkins is ever going to have a good game this year, it’ll be this week in Green Bay. I’m not sure it’ll happen, but if I’m using multiple lineups he’s going to have to be in at least one of them.

 


TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs PHITravis Kelce (KC) @ ATLVance McDonald (SF) @ CHI
Jordan Reed (WSH) @ ARIEric Ebron (DET) @ NOJared Cook (GB) vs HOU
Hunter Henry (SD) vs TBLadarius Green (PIT) vs NYGLance Kendricks (LA) @ NE
Greg Olsen (CAR) @ SEAAntonio Gates (SD) vs TBCameron Brate (TB) @ SD
Jimmy Graham (SEA) vs CARJermaine Gresham (ARI) vs WSH
Vernon Davis (WSH) @ ARI

 

– To address the elephant in the room, no, I won’t even consider Gronk at this point. He’s just too much of a risk to get pulled early in the game if he even plays. I’d rather spend my money on a guy like Tyler Eifert. That guy is a monster; all he does is hit value every time he takes the field. CIN has nobody else to throw to so you know that he’s going to get targets. The Eagles are really good at home (Monday notwithstanding), but they aren’t the same on the road and I expect Cincy to be able to put up some points in this game. If that’s the case, Eifert is sure to be involved. I probably won’t risk using Jordan Reed even if he ends up starting this week. He’s banged up and WSH is going to be careful with him.

– There’s no way that Ebron and Gates both go catchless again in Week 13. Their QBs are going to make special effort to get these guys the ball. Both have good matchups and are reasonably priced. They are definitely in consideration for me. It was only 3 targets, but Ladarius Green looked good on Thanksgiving. He was moving down the field nicely, and most linebackers are not going to be able to keep up with him. Pittsburgh is going to score a lot in this game. Green should be more involved as he’s now had another 10 days to get back to 100%. He’s super cheap and will be in a lot of my lineups.

– All hail Vance McDonald! Colin Kaepernick loves his big TE, and I love him, too. He has another solid game in Week 12 (4-60) to make it five good games in a row. He’s still really cheap and I will surely have exposure to him to help me go big at WR. Kendricks is another cheap TE that just keeps chugging along. He’s seen 7 targets each of the last two weeks and now has a solid-ish QB throwing to him. Jermaine Gresham has scored in back-to-back weeks. He had 10 targets in Week 12. He’s not safe at all, but we’ve seen that the guy can be productive at this position. All it takes is Bruce Arians ditching his anti-TE mantra and Gresham could be a guy that crushes value.

 


DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Baltimore Ravens vs MIAPhiladelphia Eagles @ CINSan Francisco 49ers @ CHI
Denver Broncos @ JAXSeattle Seahawks vs CARCincinnati Bengals vs PHI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ SDNew England Patriots vs LA
Oakland Raiders vs BUF

 

– The Ravens don’t really do it for me, but they are cheap enough that they are worth a shot against an overrated Miami offense. If I’m playing a public defense I’d rather just spend all the way up and get the Broncos against Blake Bortles. You know he’s throwing two picks so it’s really just a matter of if Denver can house one or not to crush value. A pissed off Seattle at home is never a bad idea, even against Cam Newton.

– The two defenses that I’m mostly looking at this week are the Bengals and Raiders. Neither are fantastic, but both are incredibly cheap, face mediocre (at best) offenses, and have major playmakers that can dominate a game (Burfict for CIN and Mack for OAK). I’m really looking to punt defense this week so I can spend up at QB/WR, so I’ll grasp at anything that will make me like one of those defenses (and I do like both of them). If I was choosing between my two punt plays, I’d just take the cheaper one. That’s kind of where I’m at with defense this week.

 


Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

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