The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 11 WEEKEND UPDATE November 21, 2015  |  Doug Shain


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the WEEKEND UPDATE of the Hail Mary (NFL DFS). All new thoughts and information are in bolded italics.

Welcome to the Hail Mary where I’ve got your FIRST LOOK at Week 11 NFL DFS. There are a lot of big name players on a bye this week, which leaves the door open for some interesting plays. Let’s get to it!

To take a look at a list of “musts” when building my GPP lineup, click here. Best of luck this week!

 

The Depth Chart – The Plays of the Week

I’m going to list 3 groups of players for each position (except K). These groups are going to be PUBLIC plays, EXPERT plays, and HuLo plays. For an explanation of what those plays mean, click here. They are not ranked in any order. I’ll give a little analysis after each position section, but I won’t necessarily give a narrative about each player.

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Tom Brady – NE Philip Rivers – SD Marcus Mariota – TEN
Aaron Rodgers – GB Jay Cutler – CHI Mark Sanchez – PHI
Matt Ryan – ATL Cam Newton – CAR Case Keenum – STL
Tony Romo – DAL Carson Palmer – ARI Tyrod Taylor – BUF
Blake Bortles – JAX Derek Carr- OAK
Matthew Stafford – DET Alex Smith – KC
Brock Osweiler – DEN

 

– Happy Tony Romo week!! Yay! Let him be someone else’s issue. I don’t trust him right away. If I’m paying up it’s for one of the other three top guns. Ryan has the best matchup by far, but you can never count out Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. If you go with Tom Terrific or ARod be ready to differentiate your lineup elsewhere since they’ll be highly owned on name recognition alone.

– A lot of people are actually counting Aaron Rodgers out this week against Minnesota (only 1% owned in many big Thursday tourneys….1/3 of the ownership of Case Keenum). Aaron Rodgers loves to prove people wrong. The matchup isn’t good at all, but if you told me that I could get Aaron Rodgers at <3% ownership, then I’d have to at least consider running a few lineups out there with him in it.

– Jay Cutler is on one heck of a run right now and would appear to have a tough matchup against the Broncos this week. You did see what KC just did in Denver, right? I kind of like Cutler as a semi-contrarian, super cheap play. Rivers should be able to go bombs away this weekend again. It’s not like they run the ball in SD. Cam is always in play and he’s still not appreciated like he should be. Bortles is a pretty good play on Thursday night though his ownership will be inflated just because he’s playing on Thursday night.

– Carson Palmer doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would be motivated by something stupid (like Tom Brady), but he was fined this week for basically celebrating too much last week in the win against Seattle. I know Brady would come out after something dumb like that and just annihilate his opponent the next week. Does Carson Palmer have that kind of cocky streak in him? Even if he doesn’t, isn’t he still a pretty good play against an average — at best — Bengals passing D?

– Much like Bortles, you’re probably going to see Mariota owned a lot more than he should because he plays Thursday night. The whole point of using a guy like Mariota is to get a big game out of a 3% guy, not out of a 10% guy. Of all the HuLo plays I’m most interested in Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford (lord help me), and Derek Carr. All have matchups against bottom 10 pass defenses.

– Tyrod Taylor has a pretty high floor due to his running ability and he handled the Patriots pretty well earlier in the year, but don’t you think that Belichick has learned from that and will contain Taylor this week? The Pats love to play in primetime, and I just don’t see how Taylor is going to come close to replicating his numbers against NE from earlier in the year.

– I’m not sure I want to be the guy taking a chance that Brock Osweiler is the second coming when I can get a Mark Sanchez or Jay Cutler for essentially the same price. You know who else I’d play above Osweiler? Case Keenum against the awful Ravens pass defense. I wouldn’t put him on my main team, but he’ll definitely find a way onto a secondary roster with Tavon Austin.

My guys: Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Mark Sanchez, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Case Keenum

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Todd Gurley – STL Latavius Murray – OAK Darren McFadden – DAL/Robert Turbin- DAL
Adrian Peterson – MIN Christopher Ivory – NYJ CJ Anderson – DEN
Devonta Freeman – ATL Charcandrick West – KC David Cobb – TEN
Marshawn Lynch – SEA/Thomas Rawls – SEA Lamar Miller – MIA Giovani Bernard – CIN
Jeremy Langford – CHI James Starks – GB DeMarco Murray – PHI
Matt Jones – WSH LeSean McCoy – BUF Jay Ajayi – MIA
Frank Gore – IND

 

– If Matt Forte is out again I expect Jeremy Langford to be the highest owned player of the week. In 2 weeks he’s proven that he can handle the load when fed. His price is so low that it’d be insane to bench him. Of course, for me, he’s a clear fade. I’d rather pay up and get a potentially underowned AP, Lynch, or Gurley and go higher risk at WR.

– I really love the matchup for Lynch this week, but he’s once against listed as questionable. If he doesn’t go then Rawls gets that juicy matchup against the 49ers. It wouldn’t make Rawls an RB1, but it would make him a great play for very cheap.

– If I didn’t want to spend up at RB then I’m all about the trio of Latavius, Charcandrick, and Lamar (they sound like a 70’s R&B group). West is facing the worst run defense in football and has been producing like an RB1 for three weeks now (300+ total yards and 4 TD) even though he’s priced like an RB3 (at least on DK, where his price is just stupid low). Miller is on a similar tear with 7 TD since Dan Campbell took over as head coach. As a nice bonus he’s averaging 6 catches a game over his last 3 games.

– 11 carries in 2 games. That’s been the workload that everyone is going ga-ga over for Jay Ajayi. The kid has some talent and with 15 carries he’d be interesting. He’s not getting 15 carries because Lamar Miller is the man right now in Miami. Don’t fall for the “shiny new toy” trap.

– If Ryan Mathews doesn’t pass the concussion protocol then more carries should come DeMarco’s way. That’s a good thing and worth keeping an eye on. Nothing to keep an eye on now; Mathews officially declared OUT for the week. DeMarco becomes a very solid play. DMC is averaging 23 carries a game over his last four and faces the 2nd worst run defense in the league this week. Dallas’ offense is about to get a lot more dynamic with Tony Romo back under center which means defenses are going to have to respect the pass. This is a major plus for McFadden. What’s not a plus is his Questionable designation. If for some reason DMC can’t go, then Robert Turbin most likely becomes the starter. This is Turbin’s third team of the season, but he’s had some big games in the past. If he gets the start he’s definitely in the conversation as a punt play.

– With Andrew Luck not playing, Frank Gore might be asked to shoulder the load for Indy today. He’s carried the ball 50 times over his last two games. If he can get to that 25 average today then he’s a good bet to hit 100 yards and a TD. He is an extremely boring play, but he’s also cheap, getting carries, and productive. For what you have to pay to roster him he can boring, yet still worth it.

My guys: Adrian Peterson, Charcandrick West, Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Demarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Devonta Freeman

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Mike Evans – TB Danny Amendola – NE Davante Adams – GB
Calvin Johnson – DET Alshon Jeffery – CHI Brandon Lafell – NE
DeAndre Hopkins – HOU Randall Cobb – GB Sammy Watkins – BUF
Larry Fitzgerald – ARI Allen Robinson – JAX Stefon Diggs – MIN
Dez Bryant – DAL Jordan Matthews – PHI DeSean Jackson – WSH
Amari Cooper – OAK Michael Crabtree – OAK Doug Baldwin – SEA
A.J. Green – CIN Michael Floyd – ARI Eric Decker – NYJ
Demaryius Thomas – DEN Stevie Johnson – SD Allen Hurns – JAX
Julio Jones – ATL Jarvis Landry – MIA Tavon Austin – STL
Jamison Crowder – WSH

 

While I’m not terribly interested in playing Tony Romo this week, I’m all aboard the Dez Train. Dallas is going to make it a point to get their stud WR the ball — and Romo actually has the talent to do it. I expect Dez to have a huge game this week. I also really like the matchups for Mike Evans and Amari Cooper. The more I think about the matchup in Detroit the more I like both Amari Cooper and Calvin Johnson. That game could be one of those wild Detroit shootouts. DeAndre and Julio are always in play even though they face two of the best CB in the league (Revis and Vontae Davis, respectively).

– The emergence of Michael Floyd has actually been a huge benefit for Larry Fitzgerald. He’s got 19 catches over his last two weeks and is seeing slightly easier coverage because of Floyd’s downfield ability. Both make really interesting plays this week against a suspect Cincy pass D. Keep an eye on Floyd’s status for the game because he hasn’t practiced all week due to a tweaked hammy. If he can’t go then John Brown becomes a decent play.

– Alshon Jeffery is questionable this week and might not play. If he’s out then I’m not sure I like anyone on Chicago. If he plays then I’m a fan of the entire Bears offense. Definitely pay attention to his status.

– Danny Amendola should get a lot of the work that Julian Edelman was getting. I won’t say a 1:1 correlation of stats, but if he’s 80% of Edelman then Amendola is worth rostering. Alshon Jeffery should be low-owned due to a matchup with Denver, but I think he’s going to do a lot better than expected. Denver is in trouble right now and they have had a couple of bad games in a row. Cobb, Landry, and JMatt are three other guys I will have on a lot of teams this week. Matthews, in particular, should benefit from the change at QB in Philly. His biggest production last year came with Sanchez at the helm.

– Don’t look now, but Davante Adams has been the top WR in GB the last few weeks. Rodgers has been targeting him a lot and if he could get in the end zone his good weeks would be huge weeks. Tavon Austin should unload against the Ravens defense. He’s so dynamic and their defense is so bad.

– Hurns and Decker are exactly the same player. They go 6-75-1 every single week. Why are you not putting them on your roster? For their low price they are insta-clicks into your lineup for a sure 15 points.

– Over his last 7 games Jamison Crowder is averaging a stat line of around 6-60. That’s not huge in and of itself, but if you added a touchdown to a line like that then we’re talking a very productive game for a very low price. With Josh Norman most likely shadowing DJax this week, Crowder could become a bigger part of the passing game for the Redskins.

My guys: Amari Cooper, Jordan Matthews, Eric Decker, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Davante Adams, Dez Bryant, Tavon Austin, Jarvis Landry, Danny Amendola

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski – NE Travis Kelce – KC Jason Witten – DAL
Greg Olsen – CAR Jordan Reed – WSH Jacob Tamme – ATL
Tyler Eifert – CIN Antonio Gates – SD Eric Ebron – DET
Zach Ertz – PHI Crockett Gillmore – BAL

 

– Oh goodness, Gronk went full Gronk on the Giants. The Bills are not a great defensive team and I expect to see another full Gronking this week once again. He’s so, so expensive but when he goes off you have such a huge advantage over everyone else who didn’t put him in their lineup.

– Jordan Reed is quickly becoming an every week stud. Kirk Cousins loves him and he’s cheap enough that he can be a fixture in your lineup until he gets hurt. Zach Ertz should see an uptick in his production with Mark Sanchez as the new Eagles QB. Sanchez loves him some Ertz.

– Romo’s back, so Witten is a viable play once again. The Colts defend the TE poorly so I’m expecting a nice game from the de facto #2 pass catcher for Atlanta, Jacob Tamme. Did you see what Zach Miller did last week to the Rams? This week it’s Gillmore’s turn. Oakland can’t defend the TE either, which means you should take a long look at Eric Ebron.

My guys: Rob Gronkowski, Jacob Tamme, Jordan Reed, Crockett Gillmore, Eric Ebron, Antonio Gates

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Philadelphia Eagles
Saint Louis Rams Atlanta Falcons Jacksonville Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks Kansas City Chiefs Chicago Bears

 

– This is the week I finally pass on the Denver defense. Seattle, on the other hand, is finally back in my favor with a great matchup against the 49ers.

– I don’t know why Carolina doesn’t get more love, but their defense is great and the Redskins are mistake prone when they aren’t facing a bottom 3 pass defense. Atlanta at home is a different beast than Atlanta on the road and they are facing Matt Hasselbeck, not Andrew Luck.

– Philly is ALWAYS in play. Fade them at your own peril. Chicago might not be such a bad play against a weakened Denver offense.

My guys: Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles

Check out the Fake Football Cheat Sheets for my sample lineups. I do the DraftKings section, but the process of selecting the lineups is the same on all the sites.

Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 and good luck with your Hail Mary!

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