The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 11 WEEKEND UPDATE
November 18, 2016 | Doug Shain
The Huddle – Opening Statement
Welcome to the Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at our GPP plays for NFL Week 11. I’ll be using ownership data from the Fantasy Aces Thursday slate to help me determine public and HuLo plays. Public plays will be the players who were 10% owned or more on those slates unless otherwise noted. These have been pretty accurate over the last few weeks and have gone a long way in helping to find value we might not have realized existed.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Tom Brady (NE) @ SF||Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ CLE||Russell Wilson (SEA) vs PHI|
|Kirk Cousins (WSH) vs GB||Tyrod Taylor (BUF) @ CIN||Jameis Winston (TB) @ KC|
|Blake Bortles (JAX) @ DET||Matthew Stafford (DET) vs JAX||Eli Manning (NYG) vs CHI|
|Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ IND||Colin Kaepernick (SF) vs NE||Dak Prescott (DAL) vs BAL|
|Andrew Luck (IND) vs TEN||Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ WSH|
– For the first time in a long time, I’m 100% on board with every one of the public plays at QB. I think Brady probably has the most upside as he has the potential to into full on Angry Brady Mode, putting a game of 400 yards and 4 TD well within reason. I think he’s going to be one of the two chalkier QB’s when all is said and done (along with Mariota). I was high on both of these guys coming into this weekend, and while I still love both players, they have moved down my ranks solely because of ownership concerns. I was shocked when I saw how much love the Redskins were getting on the Thursday slate. I know that Cousins has 350 yard, 3 TD upside, but he’s by no means a sure thing and he’s being owned as if he were. I’m actually going to move all my Cousins love to Aaron Rodgers and his much lower ownership/much higher ceiling. Bortles and Luck both have great matchups and should put up stellar numbers, but, once again, I’m probably going to shift a lot of my love to some overlooked QB’s.
– When all is said and done, it’s quite possible that Roethlisberger is going to be a very public play. The only thing that may scare people off are the high winds projected in Cleveland for Sunday. Rain and snow are overrated weather factors, but high winds are vastly underrated as a problem for offenses. Given those two concerns, I’m kind of off of him for a GPP. A player I will be owning quite a bit of is Aaron Rodgers. People seem to equate the Packers losing with Rodgers having a bad fantasy season. People are dead wrong. He has had 4 incredible weeks in a row and he’s going to have to throw it 45+ times again this weekend as a road dog in Washington. I don’t trust Kaepernick but his rushing totals do give him a high floor and “people in the know” are pushing him as a GPP play with upside. I totally see their point…but it’s Kaepernick.
– If Aaron Rodgers isn’t my favorite GPP quarterback this weekend then Russell Wilson very well may be. This is right around that time that we start to see Seattle starting to wing it out each year. With C.J. Prosise in the backfield, Wilson has another weapon he can use along with Graham, Baldwin, and Lockett. Look at what Wilson did in New England on Sunday night for an idea of his upside. At his price, that’s an upside I’m willing to chase. I also am starting to come around on Eli and Jameis, as well. The Bears are terrible so Eli has to be in play, and if Marcus Peters really is out for the Chiefs then Winston can fire away at will on the KC secondary.
My guys: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Le'Veon Bell (PIT) @ CLE||James Starks (GB) @ WSH||Chris Ivory (JAX) @ DET|
|DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ IND||Robert Kelley (WSH) vs GB||Jordan Howard (CHI) @ NYG|
|Frank Gore (IND) vs TEN||Doug Martin (TB) @ KC||Rashad Jennings (NYG) vs CHI|
|LeSean McCoy (BUF) @ CIN||Jay Ajayi (MIA) @ LA||Todd Gurley (LA) vs MIA|
|LeGarrette Blount (NE) @ SF||Carlos Hyde (SF) vs NE|
|C.J. Prosise (SEA) vs PHI||Lamar Miller (HOU) vs OAK|
|Theo Riddick (DET) vs JAX||David Johnson (ARI) @ MIN|
|Latavius Murray (OAK) vs HOU||Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs BAL|
|Isaiah Crowell (CLE) vs PIT|
|Spencer Ware (KC) vs TB|
– It’s nearly impossible to avoid the chalk this weekend with such a specific group of RB being highly owned. When everything shakes out on Sunday, I think the true chalk is going to end up being Bell, Crowell, Blount, Riddick, Ware, Prosise, and DeMarco Murray. I can’t get on board with Riddick or Crowell. They are too inconsistent for me, and I can get similar players that I’m more comfortable with at a lower ownership. We can let them be someone else’s problem in Week 11. I’m probably not going to have a lot of Le’Veon Bell this week either due to his price. I don’t want to spend too far down at other positions just to afford him. I’m just as happy to save a little bit of cap space and use DeMarco Murray, among public plays. If I want to get a little more creative I can look at Ezekiel Elliott (underowned once again) and David Johnson (the MIN matchup is not as scary as people would lead you to believe). Blount is a great option in the mid-tier, but I’m very afraid of him; both to use him and to not use him. If Belichick just wants to throw and pile up points, Blount could be virtually useless. On the other hand, if Blount terrorizes the 49ers defense like every other RB has this year, I’m going to look pretty dumb for fading him. It’s a quandary, but I lean towards playing him. Frank Gore is another interesting player in that he’s so boring, but he’s been so consistently good. He’s a top 10 RB this season in PPR scoring. TEN is a great matchup for him, and he’s not expensive at all. I’ll probably have more Gore than I want this week, begrudgingly. Prosise is one of a handful of cheap RB that I’ll be considering.
– Another cheap RB that I like this week is Robert Kelley. The Packers’ run defense is vastly overrated, and there’s no reason to avoid this bruiser at all. He’s a 20 carry, 90 yard type of RB with TD upside. With all the love for the WSH passing game, it’s quite possible that Kelley becomes one of the bigger steals of the weekend if he can get into the end zone. I know that my fellow TFF writer Ian Goldsmith really likes James Starks this weekend, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why. GB is going to throw a lot and Starks is no sure thing for touches. If I was going to punt RB then I’d rather look at Rashad Jennings as a guy that I can trust to get me 15+ touches in a good matchup. Feel free to ask Ian about his Starks love @ianrgold on Twitter.
– As usual, my favorite tier is the HuLo plays. If we can really get Ezekiel Elliott or David Johnson for under 10%, with their upside, we have to attack that. That’s kind of how you win a GPP; find the stud that everyone is scared to play and watch them go off. It’s a lot harder to do than it is to say, but we always have to keep an eye out for situation like that. I think that when push comes to shove, Johnson is going to be that guy this week. I’ve already spoken about my preference of Rashad Jennings over James Starks, but I can’t stress enough how much more I like Jennings. He’s so inexpensive for a guy who should get you the touches you need for him to make value. And, as always, I’m still on the Todd Gurley train. He’s too talented to not break out at some point this year.
My guys: DeMarco Murray, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Prosise, LeGarrette Blount, Frank Gore, Robert Kelley, Todd Gurley
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Donte Moncrief (IND) vs TEN||Julian Edelman (NE) @ SF||Eli Rogers (PIT) @ CLE|
|Terrelle Pryor (CLE) vs PIT||Quinton Patton (SF) vs NE||Mike Evans (TB) @ KC|
|TY Hilton (IND) vs TEN||Golden Tate (DET) vs JAX||Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ MIN|
|Tyreek Hill (KC) vs TB||Doug Baldwin (SEA) vs PHI||Marvin Jones (DET) vs JAX|
|Jamison Crowder (WSH) vs GB||Davante Adams (GB) @ WSH||Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs CHI|
|Cameron Meredith (CHI) @ NYG||Stefon Diggs (MIN) vs ARI||AJ Green (CIN) vs BUF|
|Steve Smith (BAL) @ DAL||Antonio Brown (PIT) @ CLE|
|Dez Bryant (DAL) vs BAL|
|Allen Robinson (JAX) @ DET|
|Jordy Nelson (GB) @ WSH|
|Breshad Perriman (BAL) @ DAL|
– I don’t understand the ownership percentages AT ALL from the Thursday slate over at Fantasy Aces. I get that people want to save some cap space at WR, but when I look at some of the chalk RB/TE I just don’t see where that money is being spent. I get the T.Y. Hilton thing; I get the Moncrief thing; I even get the Tyreek Hill and Cameron Meredith thing; but I don’t get the Steve Smith thing at all. He’s getting some targets, sure, but it’s not like Dallas is a pushover on defense, and the Ravens spread the ball with Wallace and Perriman in the mix as well. If I’m targeting a BAL WR this weekend, it’s going to be Perriman. He’s considerably cheaper than Smitty and has a higher ceiling. If I’m going to go boom or bust, and I think all BAL players are in that category this weekend, I’d rather do so with the younger, more dynamic, and cheaper player. The only player on the public list that I had any interest in was Moncrief, but he’s out now that his ownership is going to be so high. I’d rather spend a bit more and get some tasty plays with a lower ownership. When the games kick off on Sunday, it wouldn’t shock me to see Antonio Brown, Mike Evans (if Peters is out), and OBJ near the top of the ownership ranks. Of those three, I’ll be targeting Evans for my team.
– All I’ve been hearing on SXM this week is the name Julian Edelman. For some reason that station is gung ho about using him. I don’t see it. Edelman hasn’t done much this year, he’s banged up, and his upside is limited. It think it’s far more likely that Bennett goes off rather than Edelman. My favorite WR plays this weekend are Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Both have upped their games in recent weeks and their price tags haven’t come up to match. It’s very likely that my Yahoo Cup lineup is going to feature both of these WRs (stacking Baldwin with Wilson for a cheap play with massive upside). There are very few lineups that I’d produce that don’t have at least one of those two players, and more than likely both. On Tuesday I wrote about Stefon Diggs and how he’ll be avoiding Patrick Peterson and that was not entirely true. Peterson will shadow the slot quite a bit, but we should still see Diggs avoiding Peterson on about 20% of his routes. With his target share for MIN, that’s actually a number I am comfortable with. With Josh Norman covering Jordy Nelson, I may actually like Davante Adams more for a little cheaper of a price. I will definitely have a Rodgers stack with one of his WR, and it’s looking more likely every day that the WR is going to be Adams. Patton is averaging 9 targets a game over his last two games. If he can up his catch percentage to two-thirds instead of one-half, he could be in for a big week.
– Look at all the big names that are going underowned. Like I said above, I doubt that things stay this way. Removing Brown, OBJ, and Evans from the list, I think the big name players that I’m interested in as contrarian plays are A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, and Larry Fitzgerald (probably in that order unless you’re using Bortles, then I’d definitely use ARob with him). Robinson is going to see a lot of Darrius Slay, but when he’s in the slot he’ll avoid him and that’s when he’s going to get fed. If I’m trying to save some cap space I’ll probably focus my attention Eli Rogers first and then Perriman second. Rogers is a lot safer than Perriman, but Perriman has the talent and upside to put up a big game.
My guys: Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Eli Rogers, Mike Evans, Breshad Periman, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Zach Miller (CHI) @ NYG||Eric Ebron (DET) vs JAX||Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs BUF|
|Delanie Walker (TEN) @ IND||Jimmy Graham (SEA) vs PHI||Vernon Davis (WSH) vs GB|
|Jordan Reed (WSH) vs GB||Julius Thomas (JAX) @ DET||Cameron Brate (TB) @ KC|
|Martellus Bennett (NE) @ SF||Ladarius Green (PIT) @ CLE|
– I suspect Bennett will be the chalk at TE for Week 11. He was producing even with Gronk in the lineup so he should be even better as the sole TE target for Tom Brady in a very tasty matchup. I don’t mind using him even as the chalk since I think his floor is really high relative to his affordable price. If I’m looking to move off Bennett then I’ll probably look to either Delanie Walker or outside the public plays altogether.
– Green was active for the first time all year in Week 10, but he wasn’t a huge part of the game plan. He was only on the field for 16% of the plays for PIT, but I think we can expect to see that number double or even triple in Week 11. Jesse James is still there to steal some of the snaps from Green, but a matchup against CLE is just too good to pass up. You know that Roethlisberger loves to use his TE in the red zone, and Green was brought in for just that purpose. I don’t call TD’s, but if I did I’d call one for him this weekend. Over the last 4 weeks Vernon Davis has averaged 4.5 targets and over 70 yards per game. Jordan Reed was active and playing for two of those games. This tells me that the Redskins are actively looking to keep Davis involved. He’s not going to win you any weeks, but at his low cost, he doesn’t need to. You can do a lot with your lineups if you use Davis at your TE position. The matchup against GB is outstanding and there is plenty of room for both TEs on this team to be productive (look at what Fasano and Walker did last week for TEN in the same matchup). Unless I’m reading things wrong, Tyler Eifert was barely owned on the Thursday slates. I must be reading things wrong because that’s insane if he was. I love Eifert this and every week, and if you can get him at a low ownership then you have to at least consider it if you have the cap space.
My guys: Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert, Vernon Davis, Ladarius Green
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Kansas City Chiefs vs TB||Seattle Seahawks vs PHI||Dallas Cowboys vs BAL|
|New York Giants vs CHI||Oakland Raiders vs HOU||Arizona Cardinals vs MIN|
|Minnesota Vikings vs ARI||LA Rams vs MIA||New England Patriots @ SF|
|Miami Dolphins @ LA||Detroit Lions vs JAX||Pittsburgh Steelers @ CLE|
|Houston Texans vs OAK|
– Right after I posted the FIRST LOOK on Tuesday, it was announced that Jared Goff would be the QB for the LA Rams. When I saw that I knew that my first move for the update was to move Miami into the top spot for defense. I don’t care what their ownership percentage is, they have the best matchup and they save you a ton of money. I’m very invested in the Dolphins’ defense. The other defense I’ve found myself leaning towards is the Giants. It’s all about the LOL Cutler. He’s just so bad.
– Seattle at home in the cold against a rookie QB? Yeah, I’m down with that. I don’t know what the altitude is going to do to OAK or HOU, so I’m speculating a little bit with their defenses. Bortles is good for 2 picks and 3 sacks every time he goes on the road so that puts DET very much in play.
– NE and PIT not being two of the most widely owned defenses shocked me. I didn’t love either of them, but I assumed the public would target CLE and SF. Once again, kudos to the public for playing it smart. Arizona is a really interesting play against a struggling Vikings team, and Houston has some players on their defense that could make life tough for Derek Carr and company.
My guys: Miami, New York, Seattle, Arizona
Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments. I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.