The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 11 FIRST LOOK November 18, 2015  |  Doug Shain


 

 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the Hail Mary where I’ve got your FIRST LOOK at Week 11 NFL DFS. There are a lot of big name players on a bye this week, which leaves the door open for some interesting plays. Let’s get to it!

To take a look at a list of “musts” when building my GPP lineup, click here. Best of luck this week!

 

The Depth Chart – The Plays of the Week

I’m going to list 3 groups of players for each position (except K). These groups are going to be PUBLIC plays, EXPERT plays, and HuLo plays. For an explanation of what those plays mean, click here. They are not ranked in any order. I’ll give a little analysis after each position section, but I won’t necessarily give a narrative about each.

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Tom Brady – NE Philip Rivers – SD Marcus Mariota – TEN
Aaron Rodgers – GB Jay Cutler – CHI Mark Sanchez – PHI
Matt Ryan – ATL Cam Newton – CAR Case Keenum – STL
Tony Romo – DAL Carson Palmer – ARI Tyrod Taylor – BUF
Blake Bortles – JAX Derek Carr- OAK
Matthew Stafford – DET Alex Smith – KC
Brock Osweiler – DEN

 

– Happy Tony Romo week!! Yay! Let him be someone else’s issue. I don’t trust him right away. If I’m paying up it’s for one of the other three top guns. Ryan has the best matchup by far, but you can never count out Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. If you go with Tom Terrific or ARod be ready to differentiate your lineup elsewhere since they’ll be highly owned on name recognition alone.

– Jay Cutler is on one heck of a run right now and would appear to have a tough matchup against the Broncos this week. You did see what KC just did in Denver, right? I kind of like Cutler as a semi-contrarian, super cheap play. Rivers should be able to go bombs away this weekend again. It’s not like they run the ball in SD. Cam is always in play and he’s still not appreciated like he should be. Bortles is a pretty good play on Thursday night, though his ownership will be inflated just because he’s playing on Thursday night.

– Much like Bortles, you’re probably going to see Mariota owned a lot more than he should because he plays Thursday night. The whole point of using a guy like Mariota is to get a big game out of a 3% guy, not out of a 10% guy. Of all the HuLo plays, I’m most interested in Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford (lord help me), and Derek Carr. All have matchups against bottom 10 pass defenses.

– I’m not sure I want to be the guy taking a chance that Brock Osweiler is the second coming when I can get a Mark Sanchez or Jay Cutler for essentially the same price. You know who else I’d play above Osweiler? Case Keenum against the awful Ravens pass defense. I wouldn’t put him on my main team, but he’ll definitely find a way onto a secondary roster with Tavon Austin.

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Todd Gurley – STL Latavius Murray – OAK Darren McFadden – DAL
Adrian Peterson – MIN Christopher Ivory – NYJ CJ Anderson – DEN
Devonta Freeman – ATL Charcandrick West – KC David Cobb – TEN
Marshawn Lynch – SEA Lamar Miller – MIA Giovani Bernard – CIN
Jeremy Langford – CHI James Starks – GB DeMarco Murray – PHI
Matt Jones – WSH LeSean McCoy – BUF

 

– If Matt Forte is out again I expect Jeremy Langford to be the highest owned player of the week. In 2 weeks he’s proven that he can handle the load when fed. His price is so low that it’d be insane to bench him. Of course, for me, he’s a clear fade. I’d rather pay up and get a potentially underowned AP, Lynch, or Gurley and go higher risk at WR.

– If I didn’t want to spend up at RB then I’m all about the trio of Latavius, Charcandrick, and Lamar (they sound like a 70’s R&B group). West is facing the worst run defense in football and has been producing like an RB1 for three weeks now (300+ total yards and 4 TD) even though he’s priced like an RB3. Miller is on a similar tear with 7 TD since Dan Campbell took over as head coach. As a nice bonus, he’s averaging 6 catches a game over his last 3 games.

– If Ryan Mathews doesn’t pass the concussion protocol then more carries should come DeMarco’s way. That’s a good thing and worth keeping an eye on. DMC is averaging 23 carries a game over his last four and faces the 2nd worst run defense in the league this week. Dallas’ offense is about to get a lot more dynamic with Tony Romo back under center, which means defenses are going to have to respect the pass. This is a major plus for McFadden.

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Mike Evans – TB Danny Amendola – NE Davante Adams – GB
Calvin Johnson – DET Alshon Jeffery – CHI Brandon Lafell – NE
DeAndre Hopkins – HOU Randall Cobb – GB Sammy Watkins – BUF
Larry Fitzgerald – ARI Allen Robinson – JAX Stefon Diggs – MIN
Dez Bryant – DAL Jordan Matthews – PHI DeSean Jackson – WSH
Amari Cooper – OAK Michael Crabtree – OAK Doug Baldwin – SEA
A.J. Green – CIN Michael Floyd – ARI Eric Decker – NYJ
Demaryius Thomas – DEN Stevie Johnson – SD Allen Hurns – JAX
Julio Jones – ATL Jarvis Landry – MIA Tavon Austin – STL

 

While I’m not terribly interested in playing Tony Romo this week, I’m all aboard the Dez Train. Dallas is going to make it a point to get their stud WR the ball and Romo actually has the talent to do it. I expect Dez to have a huge game this week. I also really like the matchups for Mike Evans and Amari Cooper. DeAndre and Julio are always in play.

– Danny Amendola should get a lot of the work that Julian Edelman was getting. I won’t say a 1:1 correlation of stats, but if he’s 80% of Edelman then Amendola is worth rostering. Alshon Jeffery should be low-owned due to a matchup with Denver, but I think he’s going to do a lot better than expected. Denver is in trouble right now and they have had a couple of bad games in a row. Cobb, Landry, and JMatt are three other guys I will have on a lot of teams this week. Matthews, in particular, should benefit from the change at QB in Philly.

– Don’t look now, but Davante Adams has been the top WR in GB the last few weeks. Rodgers has been targeting him a lot, and if he could get in the end zone his good weeks would be huge weeks. Tavon Austin should unload against the Ravens’ defense. He’s so dynamic and their defense is so bad.

– Hurns and Decker are exactly the same player. They go 6-75-1 every single week. Why are you not putting them on your roster? For their low price they are insta-clicks into your lineup for a sure 15 points.

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski – NE Travis Kelce – KC Jason Witten – DAL
Greg Olsen – CAR Jordan Reed – WSH Jacob Tamme – ATL
Tyler Eifert – CIN Antonio Gates – SD Eric Ebron – DET
Zach Ertz – PHI Crockett Gillmore – BAL

 

– Oh goodness, Gronk went full Gronk on the Giants. The Bills are not a great defensive team, and I expect to see another full Gronking this week once again. He’s so, so expensive, but when he goes off you have such a huge advantage over everyone else who didn’t put him in their lineup.

– Jordan Reed is quickly becoming an every week stud. Kirk Cousins loves him and he’s cheap enough that he can be a fixture in your lineup until he gets hurt. Zach Ertz should see an uptick in his production with Mark Sanchez as the new Eagles QB. Sanchez loves him some Ertz.

– Romo’s back, so Witten is a viable play once again. The Colts defend the TE poorly so I’m expecting a nice game from the de facto #2 pass catcher for Atlanta, Jacob Tamme. Did you see what Zach Miller did last week to the Rams? This week it’s Gillmore’s turn. Oakland can’t defend the TE either and that means you should take a long look at Eric Ebron.

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Philadelphia Eagles
Saint Louis Rams Atlanta Falcons Jacksonville Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks Kansas City Chiefs Chicago Bears

 

– This is the week I finally pass on the Denver defense. Seattle, on the other hand, is finally back in my favor with a great matchup against the 49ers.

– I don’t know why Carolina doesn’t get more love, but their defense is great and the Redskins are mistake prone when they aren’t facing a bottom 3 pass defense. Atlanta at home is a different beast than Atlanta on the road, and they are facing Matt Hasselbeck, not Andrew Luck.

– Philly is ALWAYS in play. Fade them at your own peril. Chicago might not be such a bad play against a weakened Denver offense.

Make sure to check back on Saturday morning for my WEEKEND UPDATE.

Check out the Fake Football Cheat Sheets for my sample lineups. I do the DraftKings section, but the process of selecting the lineups is the same on all the sites.

Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 and good luck with your Hail Mary!

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