The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 10 WEEKEND UPDATE November 14, 2015  |  Doug Shain


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

The weekend is upon us so that must mean it’s time for our Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE. Things are actually pretty status quo this week so the new stuff will be limited. I’ll make sure to add in a “my guys” section for each position so you know who I’d choose my roster of players from. All new information and thoughts will be in bolded italics.

Welcome to the Hail Mary where I’ve got your FIRST LOOK at Week 10 NFL DFS. We are in a really trying time right now in the DFS industry, but let’s try to put that out of our minds and enjoy a little NFL. Even if you’re in a state that can’t play DFS, I hope you find this article useful for your seasonal leagues (or at least passes the time while you’re involved in your morning constitutional). Enjoy!

To take a look at a list of “musts” when building my GPP lineup, click here. Best of luck this week!

 

The Depth Chart – The Plays of the Week

I’m going to list 3 groups of players for each position (except K). These groups are going to be PUBLIC plays, EXPERT plays, and HuLo plays. For an explanation of what those plays mean, click here. They are not ranked in any order. I’ll give a little analysis after each position section, but I won’t necessarily give a narrative about each player.

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Tom Brady – NE Cam Newton – CAR Kirk Cousins – WSH
Aaron Rodgers – GB Andy Dalton – CIN Carson Palmer – ARI
Drew Brees – NO Derek Carr – OAK Peyton Manning – DEN
Marcus Mariota – TEN Tyrod Taylor – BUF Sam Bradford – PHI
Blake Bortles – JAX Landry Jones – PIT
Joe Flacco – BAL
Teddy Bridgewater – MIN

 

– After his huge game against New Orleans I think people are going to put their trust in Mariota this week. If I’m going low at QB I’d rather not chase the points and instead roll out the guy facing the same terrible N.O. secondary that Mariota just torched (Kirk Cousins). Cousins has been relatively productive this year but he excels against bad defenses (317-3 against TB). Brady and Rodgers make for really good cash game plays but should be very highly owned in a GPP. I’m not saying you shouldn’t play them; just know that if you do you’d better be able to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup. I’m not going to be playing Brady at all even with his prime matchup. He’s just too darn expensive and you should be able to find a QB that can get you value at a much less significant hit to your cap.

– Cam Newton doesn’t get nearly enough fantasy love but he’s one of the safest plays every week. He’s running a lot more this year and that keeps his floor very high. Carolina has a great matchup against Tennessee and Cam is in play in all formats. Another underappreciated QB has been Blake Bortles. He’s prone to a lot of mistakes (17 picks on the year), but he’s got a fantastic set of WRs that have helped him average over 300 yards per game with 12 TD over his last 5 games. He’s got the pathetic Ravens defense this week, and he should feast.

– Joe Flacco has no weapons, but that shouldn’t stop him from chucking it in a potential shootout with Jacksonville (that felt weird to write). Peyton Manning isn’t the same guy we’ve known for the last 17 years, but KC has one of the worst passing D’s in the league and even old Noodle Arm should be able to go 250+ with 3 TD. Landry Jones? You could do worse than taking a flier on him against Cleveland as long as he’s throwing to Antonio Brown and Randy Moss Jr (Martavis Bryant). Big Ben might play, huh? Don’t believe the hype. I’d still bet on Jones getting the start.

– Teddy B is not going to blow up, but Oakland’s pass defense is pretty bad. He shouldn’t kill your chances of making some money if the rest of your lineup is on point.

My guys: Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Todd Gurley – STL Mark Ingram – NO Duke Johnson – CLE
Adrian Peterson – MIN Christopher Ivory – NYJ Justin Forsett – BAL
DeAngelo Williams – PIT Darren McFadden – DAL Doug Martin – TB
Lamar Miller – MIA LeGarrette Blount – NE TJ Yeldon – JAX
James Starks – GB DeMarco Murray – PHI Charcandrick West – KC
Marshawn Lynch – SEA Karlos Williams – BUF Giovani Bernard – CIN
Jeremy Langford – CHI Chris Johnson – ARI

 

– Once again, RB is weak this week. Going forward I think this is going to be a theme with all the injuries and so few established RBs.

– The best plays for this week from the highly public plays should be AP and DeAngelo Williams. Both have great matchups and are a solid bet for a majority of their team’s carries. Gurley is in that mix as well, though I do think his ownership will still be sky high.

– It looks like Matt Forte won’t play again this week. If that’s the case then Langford is somewhat in play. He’ll get all the carries, but those carries will be against the Rams’ solid defensive front.

– If Shady McCoy is out this week then Karlos Williams is definitely in play. The Jets have a great run D but Williams looks explosive and the Bills seem to trust him an awful lot. The same can be said for Mark Ingram who has settled nicely into the featured back role for New Orleans. Blount and Murray both have matchups that they should be able to handle, but who knows how their coaches are going to use them. They are talented, but risky. I LOVE Murray, but Chip Kelly scares me to death. I’d play him but not have a ton of exposure his way.

– Duke Johnson is not a high volume guy, but he’s an RB that can catch the ball very effectively. The Steelers can’t stop anyone on defense. He’s a super high risk, high reward play based on his matchup. Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Charcandrick West are all lead backs with tough matchups. That should keep the ownership low on all three. They are risky but all that opportunity could lead to something. I’ll probably pass on Lynch now with his tough matchup and injury designation. No need to consider Thomas Rawls either. Gio is now the flavor of the week for the Bengals and Houston shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge for him.

My guys: Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Todd Gurley, James Starks, DeMarco Murray, Duke Johnson, Justin Forsett, Darren McFadden

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Antonio Brown – PIT Emmanuel Sanders – DEN Davante Adams – GB
Odell Beckham – NYG Alshon Jeffery – CHI Brandon Lafell – NE
DeAndre Hopkins – HOU Randall Cobb – GB Michael Floyd – ARI
Julian Edelman – NE Allen Robinson – JAX Bryan Walters – JAX
Dez Bryant – DAL Allen Hurns – JAX Jordan Matthews – PHI
Amari Cooper – OAK Brandin Cooks – NO Michael Crabtree – OAK
A.J. Green – CIN Stefon Diggs – MIN Eric Decker – NYJ
Demaryius Thomas – DEN Larry Fitzgerald – ARI Kamar Aiken – BAL
Calvin Johnson – DET Wes Welker – STL
Bennie Fowler – DEN

 

– Denver has a great matchup this week and that puts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders near the top of the WR rankings. They are priced so low compared to their history, potential, and matchup. I don’t normally stack two WR from the same team, but doing just that with Peyton Manning could be a great way to move up the leaderboard in a GPP. Don’t stack all 3. Just go with a Noodle Arm/DT stack and be happy. Sanders’ injury worries me. On the off chance Sanders is inactive, Fowler has been gaining Peyton’s trust. He’s a huge risk but could be interesting if he gets increased snaps.

– The Packers’ secondary is pretty weak right now. Everyone is underestimating Megatron. A low-owned Calvin Johnson? Yes, please.

– I don’t care who the QB is (as long as it’s not Mike Vick), I’m going to have some exposure to Antonio Brown. He’s just too explosive to pass up. Other high end plays I like include Edelman, Dez, and Hopkins.

– Jeffery is giving WR1 numbers for WR2 prices. I don’t care the matchup, he’s in play.

– One of the best matchups of the day from a fantasy perspective is Jax/Balt. Both offenses should have a field day against the terrible defenses on the field. I have no problem with any of the 3 Jags WRs (ARob, Hurns, Walters) or Kamar Aiken from the Ravens. I’ll have exposure to all of them. Maybe I won’t. Hurns worries me. If I’m not going ARob then I’m going to roll out Walters. Brandin Cooks is playing great right now and should continue to do well as he and Brees continue to build a rapport.

– Brandon Lafell seems to have overcome his dropsies and will be relied on more now that Dion Lewis is out for the season. The Giants’ D is terrible and Lafell makes a nice pivot off of Edelman if you want to save some cap space. Michael Crabtree is becoming more and more reliable and is entering into a zone where you shouldn’t ever be faulted for playing him. Jordan Matthews may have turned a corner with that overtime TD against Dallas. I like Rodgers. I think he and Cobb are going to have a big week. Cobb is still pretty cheap. That’s a good combo.

– What is Eric Decker going to have to do to get some fantasy love? Are 6 TD in 7 games not enough? He’s a great cash game play but he’s also a guy to target in a GPP due to a low expected ownership and his inexpensive price tag. Seriously! How is he not 100% owned?? Low price tag + TD every week = a perfect source of cap relief. Guess who’s already penciled into my Week 11 preview?

My guys: Eric Decker (too late?? Meh, I still love him!), Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Bryan Walters, Randall Cobb, Brandon Lafell, Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, Stefon Diggs, Kamar Aiken, Jordan Matthews, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski – NE Delanie Walker – TEN Travis Kelce – KC
Greg Olsen – CAR Julius Thomas – JAX Jordan Reed – WSH
Tyler Eifert – CIN Martellus Bennett – CHI Kyle Rudolph – MIN
Gary Barnidge – CLE Owen Daniels – DEN Crockett Gillmore – BAL
  Vernon Davis – DEN

 

– Maybe Gronk ain’t gonna Gronk? Nah, this week against the Giants Gronk gonna Gronk. I’m not paying for him because if he doesn’t Gronk, you’re kind of up a creek.

– Manziel is starting, so Barnidge is off my radar.

– “Always play your TE against the Raiders” is a thing again and this week it’s Kyle Rudolph who gets the benefit of this matchup. I wouldn’t expect a ton of catches, but a 3-30-1 for what he costs actually hits value.

– Eifert has quickly become the elite TE in all of football and you’re getting him much cheaper than Gronk. If you want to go high end at this position, he’s the play.

– Of course Daniels had a big week the week Vernon Davis joins the team. This could be the week Davis breaks out.

– It’s gotten to the point where it’s never a bad idea to play Walker. He’s so consistent and cheap. That’s a great combination. What’s best is that he has the ability to break out for a big game like he did this past week as he’s got WR skills at the TE position. Jordan Reed is becoming a solid weekly play as well and the matchup this week against the Saints is great. I love a Cousins/Reed HuLo stack.

My guys: Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Denver Broncos Cincinnati Bengals Philadelphia Eagles
Saint Louis Rams Green Bay Packers New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals New York Jets

 

– Denver had an off week against Indy, but they should get right back to form against the Chiefs this week. Carolina and the Rams both have really nice matchups as well.

– Green Bay and Cincy both should dominate their opponents and have a ton of upside defensively.

– The Eagles are always in play. They get at the QB and force turnovers. I love that from my DFS defense.

My guys: Eagles, Denver, Carolina, Rams, Bengals

Check out the Fake Football Cheat Sheets for my sample lineups. I do the DraftKings section, but the process of selecting the lineups is the same on all the sites.

Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 and good luck with your Hail Mary!

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