The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 10 FIRST LOOK November 11, 2015  |  Doug Shain


 

 

 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the Hail Mary where I’ve got your FIRST LOOK at Week 10 NFL DFS. We are in a really trying time right now in the DFS industry, but let’s try to put that out of our minds and enjoy a little NFL. Even if you’re in a state that can’t play DFS, I hope you find this article useful for your seasonal leagues (or at least passes the time while you’re involved in your morning constitutional). Enjoy!

To take a look at a list of “musts” when building my GPP lineup, click here. Best of luck this week!

 

The Depth Chart – The Plays of the Week

I’m going to list 3 groups of players for each position (except K). These groups are going to be PUBLIC plays, EXPERT plays, and HuLo plays. For an explanation of what those plays mean, click here. They are not ranked in any order. I’ll give a little analysis after each position section, but I won’t necessarily give a narrative about each player.

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Tom Brady – NE Cam Newton – CAR Kirk Cousins – WSH
Aaron Rodgers – GB Andy Dalton – CIN Carson Palmer – ARI
Drew Brees – NO Derek Carr – OAK Peyton Manning – DEN
Marcus Mariota – TEN Tyrod Taylor – BUF Sam Bradford – PHI
Blake Bortles – JAX Landry Jones – PIT
Joe Flacco – BAL

 

– After his huge game against New Orleans I think people are going to put their trust in Mariota this week. If I’m going low at QB I’d rather not chase the points and instead roll out the guy facing the same terrible N.O. secondary that Mariota just torched — Kirk Cousins. Cousins has been relatively productive this year, but he excels against bad defenses (317-3 against TB). Brady and Rodgers make for really good cash game plays, but should be very highly owned in a GPP. I’m not saying you shouldn’t play them; just know that if you do you’d better be able to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup.

– Cam Newton doesn’t get nearly enough fantasy love, but he’s one of the safest plays every week. He’s running a lot more this year and that keeps his floor very high. Carolina has a great matchup against Tennessee and Cam is in play in all formats. Another under-appreciated QB has been Blake Bortles. He’s prone to a lot of mistakes (10 picks on the year), but he’s got a fantastic set of WRs that have helped him average over 300 yards per game with 12 TD over his last 5 games. He’s got the pathetic Ravens defense this week, and he should feast.

– Joe Flacco has no weapons, but that shouldn’t stop him from chucking it in a potential shootout with Jacksonville (that felt weird to write). Peyton Manning isn’t the same guy we’ve known for the last 17 years, but KC has one of the worst passing D’s in the league and even old Noodle Arm should be able to go 250+ with 3 TD. Landry Jones? Against Cleveland, you could do worse than taking a flier as long as he’s throwing to Antonio Brown and Randy Moss Jr (Martavis Bryant).

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Todd Gurley – STL Mark Ingram – NO Duke Johnson – CLE
Adrian Peterson – MIN Christopher Ivory – NYJ Justin Forsett – BAL
DeAngelo Williams – PIT Darren McFadden – DAL Doug Martin – TB
Lamar Miller – MIA LeGarrette Blount – NE TJ Yeldon – JAX
James Starks – GB DeMarco Murray – PHI Charcandrick West – KC
Marshawn Lynch – SEA Karlos Williams – BUF Giovani Bernard – CIN
Jeremy Langford – CHI Chris Johnson – ARI

 

– Once again, RB is weak this week. Going forward I think this is going to be a theme with all the injuries and so few established RB.

– The best plays for this week from the highly public plays should be AP and DeAngelo Williams. Both have great matchups and are a solid bet for a majority of their team’s carries. Gurley is in that mix as well, though I do think his ownership will still be sky high.

– If Shady McCoy is out this week then Karlos Williams is definitely in play. The Jets have a great run D, but Williams looks explosive and the Bills seem to trust him an awful lot. The same can be said for Mark Ingram who has settled nicely into the featured back role for New Orleans. Blount and Murray both have matchups that they should be able to handle, but who knows how their coaches are going to use them. They are talented but risky.

– Duke Johnson is not a high volume guy, but he’s an RB that can catch the ball very effectively. The Steelers can’t stop anyone on defense. He’s a super high risk, high reward play based on his matchup. Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Charcandrick West are all lead backs with tough matchups. That should keep the ownership low on all three. They are risky but all that opportunity could lead to something. Gio is now the flavor of the week for the Bengals and Houston shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge for him.

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Antonio Brown – PIT Emmanuel Sanders – DEN Davante Adams – GB
Odell Beckham – NYG Alshon Jeffery – CHI Brandon Lafell – NE
DeAndre Hopkins – HOU Randall Cobb – GB Michael Floyd – ARI
Julian Edelman – NE Allen Robinson – JAX Bryan Walters – JAX
Dez Bryant – DAL Allen Hurns – JAX Jordan Matthews – PHI
Amari Cooper – OAK Brandin Cooks – NO Michael Crabtree – OAK
A.J. Green – CIN Stefon Diggs – MIN Eric Decker – NYJ
Demaryius Thomas – DEN Larry Fitzgerald – ARI Kamar Aiken – BAL
Calvin Johnson – DET Wes Welker – STL

 

– Denver has a great matchup this week and that puts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders near the top of the WR rankings. They are priced so low compared to their history, potential, and matchup. I don’t normally stack two WR from the same team, but doing just that with Peyton Manning could be a great way to move up the leaderboard in a GPP.

– I don’t care who the QB is (as long as it’s not Mike Vick), I’m going to have some exposure to Antonio Brown. He’s just too explosive to pass up. Other high end plays I like include Edelman, Dez, and Hopkins.

– One of the best matchups of the day from a fantasy perspective is Jax/Balt. Both offenses should have a field day against the terrible defenses on the field. I have no problem with any of the 3 Jags WR (ARob, Hurns, Walters) or Kamar Aiken from the Ravens. I’ll have exposure to all of them. Brandin Cooks is playing great right now and should continue to do well as he and Brees continue to build a rapport.

– Brandon Lafell seems to have overcome his dropsies and will be relied on more now that Dion Lewis is out for the season. The Giants D is terrible;  Lafell makes a nice pivot off of Edelman if you want to save some cap space. Michael Crabtree is becoming more and more reliable and is entering into a zone where you shouldn’t ever be faulted for playing him. Jordan Matthews may have turned a corner with that overtime TD against Dallas.

– What is Eric Decker going to have to do to get some fantasy love? Are 6 TD in 7 games not enough? He’s a great cash game play, but he’s also a guy to target in a GPP due to a low expected ownership and his inexpensive price tag.

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski – NE Delanie Walker – TEN Travis Kelce – KC
Greg Olsen – CAR Julius Thomas – JAX Jordan Reed – WSH
Tyler Eifert – CIN Martellus Bennett – CHI Kyle Rudolph – MIN
Gary Barnidge – CLE Owen Daniels – DEN Crockett Gillmore – BAL

 

– Maybe Gronk ain’t gonna Gronk? Nah, this week against the Giants Gronk gonna Gronk. I’m not paying for him because if he doesn’t Gronk, you’re kind of up a creek.

– “Always play your TE against the Raiders” is a thing again and this week it’s Kyle Rudolph who gets the benefit of this matchup. I wouldn’t expect a ton of catches, but a 3-30-1 for what he costs actually hits value.

– Eifert has quickly become the elite TE in all of football and you’re getting him much cheaper than Gronk. If you want to go high end at this position, he’s the play.

– It’s gotten to the point where it’s never a bad idea to play Walker. He’s so consistent and cheap. That’s a great combination. What’s best is that he has the ability to break out for a big game like he did this past week, as he’s got WR skills at the TE position. Jordan Reed is becoming a solid weekly play as well and the matchup this week against the Saints is great. I love a Cousins/Reed HuLo stack.

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Denver Broncos Cincinnati Bengals Philadelphia Eagles
Saint Louis Rams Green Bay Packers New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals New York Jets

 

– Denver had an off week against Indy, but they should get right back to form against the Chiefs this week. Carolina and the Rams both have really nice matchups as well.

– Green Bay and Cincy both should dominate their opponents and have a ton of upside defensively.

– The Eagles are always in play. They get to the QB and force turnovers. I love that from my DFS defense.

Make sure to check back on Saturday morning for my WEEKEND UPDATE.

Check out the Fake Football Cheat Sheets for my sample lineups. I do the DraftKings section, but the process of selecting the lineups is the same on all the sites.

Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 and good luck with your Hail Mary!

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