The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 10 WEEKEND UPDATE November 11, 2016  |  Doug Shain


 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at our GPP plays for NFL Week 10. You can check out my First Look article to see what I was thinking on Tuesday night, but this is my most up to date thoughts on the weekend slate. I’ll be using ownership data from the Fantasy Aces Thursday slate to help me determine public and HuLo plays. Public plays will be the players who were 10% owned or more on those slates unless otherwise noted. These have been pretty accurate over the last few weeks and have gone a long way in helping to find value we might not have realized existed.


QB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Jay Cutler (CHI) @ TBCase Keenum (LA) @ NYJKirk Cousins (WSH) vs MIN
Carson Palmer (ARI) vs SFEli Manning (NYG) vs CINJameis Winston (TB) vs CHI
Carson Wentz (PHI) vs ATLPhilip Rivers (SD) vs MIACam Newton (CAR) vs KC
Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs GBAaron Rodgers (GB) @ TENDrew Brees (NO) vs DEN
Tom Brady (NE) vs SEA
Dak Prescott (DAL) @ PIT
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs DAL

 

– Maybe I’m a hater, but I hate it when the public plays this game intelligently. I was so excited to use guys like Carlson Palmer and Jay Cutler as HuLo plays this weekend, but then they have to show up among the most widely owned plays on the Thursday slates. Now, it’s possible that these Thursday slates are littered with experts, or that the public is the reason guys like Joe Flacco and Cody Kessler had a sizable ownership, but in general the DFS community is getting smarter. With that said, I’m not moving off Cutler, Mariota, or Roethlisberger. The matchups are there and they (and their stackmates) are priced well enough for me to execute my strategy of loading up on high end RB.  Roethlisberger is especially appealing as I don’t think you’re going to see him this cheap again at any point this season. The one guy I’m probably going to change my mind on is Carson Palmer. I liked him as a HuLo play; not so much as a guy with a 10%+ ownership. I’d rather just go with David Johnson and not get cute with Palmer. I can see why people are flocking to Wentz (ATL’s terrible pass defense), but he’s looking very much like a rookie and I don’t want to count on him to lead my GPP squad to glory. I’d much rather use Cutler in that spot.

– So Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to be that popular of a play, huh?  I guess that makes me like him even more. The worries of his demise are WAY out of control and total uninformed. Yes, he’s got no running game to speak of. Yes, he’s struggling to win games. No, he’s not a bad fantasy QB. He’s averaged 280+ yards, 3+ TD, and 40+ rushing yards over the last three weeks. Explain to me again how that’s bad? I’m more than happy to pay up for him in a game that he’s going to have to score in to keep up with the (shockingly) high-powered Titans.

– If I’m not going to use Palmer, who do I replace him with as a HuLo play? If you know me at all, then you know I love to target big name QB’s that are in rough matchups and underowned. This week that boils down to Drew Brees and Cam Newton. I’m more than happy to fire up either of these guys in a GPP. Kansas City is not nearly as good on defense as their reputation would lead you to believe. They’ve given up solid games to QB’s in 3 of the last 4 weekends and this weekend will be 4 out of 5 with Carolina starting to round into shape. If I can get Cam at 5% or less owned, at a discount, then I’m going to be all over that. As for Brees, I don’t care who he plays as long as he’s in a dome. Perhaps we can’t expect 400 yards and 5 TD against Denver, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we get 300 yards and 3 TD. He is definitely in my QB rotation. Kirk Cousins continues to put up yards and I actually like the Redskins offense better without DeSean Jackson in it. This will limit the shots Cousins is taking downfield and allow him to focus more on his best shot game playmakers: Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed.

My guys: Jay Cutler, Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Drew Brees


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ PHIPaul Perkins (NYG) vs CINJonathan Stewart (CAR) vs KC
Darren Sproles (PHI) vs ATLMark Ingram (NO) vs DENKapri Bibbs (DEN) @ NO
Jordan Howard (CHI) @ TBRobert Kelley (WSH) vs MINEzekiel Elliott (DAL) @ PIT
Jay Ajayi (MIA) @ SDDevontae Booker (DEN) @ NOChris Ivory (JAX) vs HOU
Melvin Gordon (SD) vs MIALamar Miller (HOU) @ JAXSpencer Ware (KC) @ CAR
David Johnson (ARI) vs SFDeMarco Murray (TEN) vs GB
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) vs DALMatt Forte (NYJ) vs LA

– Wow, this is the most loaded RB week I can remember in a long time. I’m all over the big names this weekend and will spend down at other positions to make sure I get at least 2, but up to 4, top end RBs if I can. Miller, Murray, Johnson, Elliott, and Bell are all in great positions to have huge games. At this point I think we have to accept that Ajayi and Gordon are high end RB1 as well and they’re right in there for me this week, too.  Obviously my top play is David Johnson, and he’s going to be maybe the most highly owned player of the season in Week 10. Normally I avoid guys that are that highly owned, but I see no way I can avoid DJ this weekend. I’ll make it work with him. As for Ezekiel Elliott, I’m shocked that he was under 10% owned, and I’m actually not hearing anything about him from the sharks. That means that, once again, he’s going be underappreciated. I will take him every single time if nobody else wants him. The kid is matchup-proof and you can very easily fit him, Johnson, and Ajayi in a lineup with the value that’s out there at WR, TE, and D/ST. As much as I’ve been a proponent for using pass-catching RB against the Falcons, I just can’t go there anymore with Darren Sproles. Let him be someone else’s problem.

– Devontae Booker is an interesting case in that he has a great matchup, but I’m not sure he’s not going to lose carries to Kapri Bibbs. As a matter of fact, if I need to save some money to make sure I get David Johnson into my lineups it’s going to be with a very cheap Bibbs. He only had 3 touches in Week 10 but that late TD catch and run was electric, and it’s not like Booker did anything to impress (10 carries for 22 yards). Robert Kelley has a really tough matchup, but I think he gets the carries going forward for the Redskins. I won’t use him personally, but he’s being talked up as a fairly cheap option if you need it.

– KC can be run on (Ivory just went over 100 yards) and JStew is a big part of the CAR offense. Nobody is going to own him and he’s capable of a 2 TD game any time. It’s finally happened; the Jags have finally realized that Chris Ivory is their best RB. Good for JAX and good for Ivory. He’s a very sneaky play against a run defense that’s not as good as you think.

– Mark Ingram had a monster week in Week 9, but apparently that wasn’t enough for people to jump back on his bandwagon.  DEN has a much worse rushing D than you realize, and I’m going to be more than happy to pick on them with Ingram and his newfound confidence. My mind is blown at how low the Thursday ownership is on DeMarco Murray. His worst game of the season was 60 yards and a TD. He’s a huge part of the TEN offense and they are going to score plenty in Week 10. He was already a guy I was targeting, but I’m going to try to get even more shares of him now that I know I’ll win the ownership game by using him.

My guys: David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Mark Ingram, Kapri Bibbs, DeMarco Murray

 


WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
J.J. Nelson (ARI) vs SFKelvin Benjamin (CAR) vs KCDemaryius Thomas (DEN) @ NO
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) @ TBMichael Thomas (NO) v DENJordy Nelson (GB) @ TEN
Tyrell Williams (SD) vs MIAKenny Britt (LA) @ NYJBrandon Marshall (NYJ) vs LA
Mike Evans (TB) vs CHIStefon Diggs (MIN) @ WSHAlbert Wilson (KC) @ CAR
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) vs SFJordan Matthews (PHI) vs ATLEli Rodgers (PIT) vs DAL
Tyreek Hill (KC) @ CARJamison Crowder (WSH) vs MINDez Bryant (DAL) @ PIT
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs DALRishard Matthews (TEN) vs GB
Julio Jones (ATL) @ PHI
Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs CIN
A.J. Green (CIN) @ NYG

 

– Who isn’t going to own Mike Evans this week? The guy is a monster, and nobody on the Bears is going to be able to stop him. He’s very pricey and using him will prohibit you from going too big at RB, but his upside is incredible. The Steelers play a lot better at home than they do on the road, and I expect AB to come through with a big game against Dallas. Everyone seems to want J.J. Nelson this weekend. I was so hoping to get him as a HuLo play, but he’s one of the three most widely owned WR on the Thursday slate, and with good reason. Over his last two games he’s averaged 9.5 targets and 80 yards per game. He’s clearly passed Michael Floyd on the depth chart for ARI, and a matchup against SF shouldn’t hurt his numbers. What is hurt is my interest in Nelson. If I’m going to go cheap I want it to be with a guy nobody owns.

– DEN is not a good matchup for anyone, but Brees in the Dome is a monster. I don’t think NO goes off for a huge game but when they throw it’s going to be away from DEN’s solid coverage and more likely towards Michael Thomas. Thomas has been looking like a WR1 recently, and Brees’ trust in him grows weekly. He’ very much in play this week for me. One of my top WR targets in Week 10 is going to be Alshon Jeffery. Big things are coming for him and Cutler against the Buccaneers. They have given up the fourth most points to opposing WR, and the Bears duo has a special connection. Kenny Britt has been the best WR for LA all season long (6+ targets in all but one game this season), and the Jets have a terrible secondary. The only way LA stays in this game is via the pass, and Britt is the main man there. He’s going to be a guy I own a lot of this weekend. Jordan Matthews hasn’t put up monster numbers the last two weeks (an average of 8-75), but he has put up monster target numbers (24 total in those two weeks). This week he’s facing the 2nd most generous defense to opposing WR; plus, he’s pretty cheap. You can comfortably fit him into a lineup as your WR1 and go huge at RB.

– Rishard Matthews has a TD in 4 of his last 5 games (5 TD total). He’s also averaging 5.6 targets per game over that time span. The GB secondary is banged up and exploitable. I think this game is a shootout and wouldn’t be surprised to see another good game from Matthews. He’s exactly the type of WR you want if you’re going to load up at RB. As it’s been the last few weeks, you can get a ton of stud WRs at a low ownership: Julio, AJ Green, OBJ, Demaryius Thomas, Dez, and Jordy Nelson are front and center. I probably won’t own any of them since I want to save my money for high end RB. A few cheaper options that I am coming around on and will have exposure to are Eli Rogers and Albert Wilson. Both should see an uptick in targets with the various injuries facing their WR teammates. Rogers looked like he gained some trust from Big Ben with a huge week last weekend, and Wilson is just a much safer option for KC than Tyreek Hill is. They are both risky plays, but at their prices they are risks that are worth taking.

My guys: Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Thomas, Kenny Britt, Jordan Matthews, Eli Rogers, Rishard Matthews, Albert Wilson

 


TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) @ JAXTyler Eifert (CIN) @ NYGGreg Olsen (CAR) vs KC
Lance Kendricks (LA) @ NYJZach Ertz (PHI) vs ATLJimmy Graham (SEA) @ NE
Zach Miller (CHI) @ TBRob Gronkowski (NE) vs SEAVance McDonald (SF) @ ARI
Antonio Gates (SD) vs MIARichard Rodgers (GB) @ TENCameron Brate (TB) vs CHI
Jordan Reed (WSH) vs MIN
Travis Kelce (KC) @ CAR
Delanie Walker (TEN) vs GB
Austin Hooper (ATL) @ PHI

 

–  The public knows what I was hoping only we would know: you don’t need an expensive TE in Week 10. There are a lot of solid, cheap options on the board although it would appear that the majority of them are going to be very popular plays. I’m not going to be scared away by this and will still feel very comfortable using Fiedorowicz and Gates. Both have been getting a lot of targets over the last 4 weeks or so and provide a nice return for a small price. If anything, the high ownership might push me to choose Brate over Fiedorowicz if the rest of my lineups are pretty chalky.

– Hmmm, you can get Gronk as a relatively low-owned player in Week 10. That’s a really interesting proposition. If you wanted to get uber-contrarian, you could pay up for TE and try to find value at RB (or in your Flex spot). You could use a high-end TE like Jordan Reed or Greg Olsen in your Flex along with Gronk in your TE spot and totally throw chalk out the window. It’s not a route I’m going to take, but if you want your lineup to be truly unique there are players in the right spots to make it happen.

– I’ve already expressed my appreciation for Brate this week (TD in 2 straight weeks), but I also have no issue targeting Austin Hooper as a value TE either. He was heavily involved in Week 9 and should continue to be a big part of the Falcons offense going forward. Travis Kelce could be another high end TE to consider given the fact that Jeremy Maclin won’t be playing in Week 10.

My guys: Cameron Brate, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Antonio Gates, Austin Hooper, Jordan Reed

 


DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Los Angeles Rams @ NYJHouston Texans @ JAXMinnesota Vikings @ WSH
Washington Redskins vs MINNew York Jets vs LAPhiladelphia Eagles vs ATL
Arizona Cardinals vs SFCarolina Panthers vs KCNew England Patriots vs SEA
San Diego Chargers vs MIA

 

– With all the good offensive matchups, it’s a rough week to pick a defense. For my money, I’m all about the Jets and Cardinals. The 49ers put on a show against the Saints, but that was at home…and it was against the Saints. ARI should be able to put a hurt on Kaepernick, and I have no problem paying up for them. The Rams are a bad offense to begin with and now they’re going all the way east for an early game. This could be a big time get well game for New York.

– Houston should be able to put contain the Jaguars and get to Bortles, although I’m a little worried that the garbage time warrior will hurt the Texans’ point total with a couple of late TDs. That said, if I can get a few sacks and turnovers, I’ll be happy either way. Despite all the points the Chargers gave up against the Titans, they still pressured Mariota all day and came up with 2 pick sixes. Tannehill is nowhere near as good as Mariota. I’m not calling another defensive TD, but with Bosa doing his thing SD is no longer a defense to overlook.

– Seattle’s offense looked great on Monday night and that might scare people off the Patriots. For the season the Seahawks have been pedestrian, and on the road they’ve been worse than that. NE always gets up for prime time games; you know Belichick is going to have something up his sleeves in this one. The Falcons are yet to have a truly awful game this season, but they surely have one in them. The Eagles can get to the QB and have the ability to score both on defense and special teams.

My guys: Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets


 

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

3 Responses

  1. Doug says:

    I’d go Brees and Cutler. Dalton just doesn’t do it for me

  2. mike says:

    Season Long, 2 QB league. 6 points passing td, 3 point bonus for 300 yards. I have Brees, Dalton, Sieman with Cutler available. Leaning Brees and Dalton. Any ideas? Thanks

Leave a Reply

2016 DFS

The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Divisional Round WEEKEND UPDATE

Follow @Bankster17 The Huddle – Opening Statement Welcome to the WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at your GPP plays for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here. Very little has changed since Monday when I ...

READ MORE

Mitigating Risk: Divisional DraftKings Cash Game Plays

Follow @Justin_Redwards The time to grind is here, boys and girls. While we throw our hard-earned money at DFS and hope to become the next Milly Maker, it is prudent for us to allocate a good amount of that into “safe” (or at least much ‘safer’) Cash Games. You can portion ...

READ MORE

Divisional Round DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)

Welcome to The Fake Football Divisional Round FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet! . With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for ...

READ MORE