The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 10 FIRST LOOK November 7, 2016  |  Doug Shain


 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 10. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.

 


QB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Drew Brees (NO) vs DENCam Newton (CAR) vs KCBlake Bortles (JAX) vs HOU
Matt Ryan (ATL) @ PHITrevor Siemian (DEN) @ NOCase Keenum (LA) @ NYJ
Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ TENJameis Winston (TB) vs CHIJay Cutler (CHI) @ TB
Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs GBKirk Cousins (WSH) vs MINColin Kaepernick (SF) @ ARI
Philip Rivers (SD) vs MIARussell Wilson (SEA) @ NE
Dak Prescott (DAL) @ PITCarson Palmer (ARI) vs SF
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs DAL
Tom Brady (NE) vs SEA

 

– Everyone is going a little crazy about how bad the Packers offense has been, but I’m perfectly happy with the numbers Aaron Rodgers is putting up. He’s put up 10 TD and nearly 280 yards per game over his last 3 starts (ever since they ran out of RB to use). This is a great offense for passing, and I’m more than happy to jump right back on ARod and the gang in Tennessee this weekend. I’ll also happily be back on the Mariota train as he’s been stellar for the last 4 weeks, and Green Bay has shown very little defensively. If the TEN coach can get his head out of his Mularkey and just let Mariota run some more, he’s going to be elite for a long time. 250 yard and 3 total touchdowns is a good starting point for him this weekend. Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Philip Rivers are all in play for me as well this weekend. I’m not totally sure I want to use Prescott in PIT (they are a different team at home), nor do I feel like I need to spend up for Tom Brady or Drew Brees in less than optimal matchups.

– Reputation is going to keep Carson Palmer from being low-owned, but he should be in line for a huge game against the 49ers. I guess it’s reasonable to think that people will shy away from him because they expect David Johnson to blow up as well, but I think there is plenty of room for this entire offense to pop off (just look at what Dallas did last weekend as a blueprint). Jameis Winston will always be in play for me when he’s at home, and Kirk Cousins is a 300+ yard guy every week. Even a matchup against MIN doesn’t scare me all that much as they’ve slowed down quite a bit over the last four weeks. He does come with some extra risk this weekend, but in the end he should be OK.

– At what point to we just accept that Blake Bortles is going to look like crap for 3 quarters and then hit his numbers anyway? I mean, he’s done this every week for the past two seasons. He’s got 5 multi-TD games this year and 5 games over 250 yards. Given his ever decreasing price, these are usable numbers. I think Houston wins this game easily but Bortles gets to 250-2 by the end of the game somehow. Jay Cutler might be the sneakiest QB to use this weekend. TB gives up a ton of passing yards (look what Ryan/Julio and Carr/Cooper did the last two weeks against them) and Cutler loves to chuck it up to Jeffery. They are going to be one of my GPP stacks for sure. I’m way, way off Kaepernick this week. A game in Arizona is very different than a home game against the Saints.


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Lamar Miller (HOU) @ JAXChris Ivory (JAX) vs HOUJonathan Stewart (CAR) vs KC
Devontae Booker (DEN) @ NOTy Montgomery (GB) @ TENKapri Bibbs (DEN) @ NO
Matt Forte (NYJ) vs LARobert Kelley (WSH) vs MINDarren Sproles (PHI) vs ATL
DeMarco Murray (TEN) vs GBJordan Howard (CHI) @ TBChris Thompson (WSH) vs MIN
Jay Ajayi (MIA) @ SDSpencer Ware (KC) @ CARDevonta Freeman (ATL) @ PHI
Melvin Gordon (SD) vs MIA
David Johnson (ARI) vs SF
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) @ PIT
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) vs DAL
Mark Ingram (NO) vs DEN

 

– Wow, this is the most loaded RB week I can remember in a long time. I’m all over the big names this weekend and will spend down at other positions to make sure I get 2 (3 in Flex leagues) top end RBs if I can. Miller, Murray, Johnson, Elliott, and Bell are all in great positions to have huge games. At this point I think we have to accept that Ajayi and Gordon are high end RB1 as well and they’re right in there for me this week, too.  Obviously my top play is David Johnson, and he’s going to be maybe the most highly owned player of the season in Week 10. Normally I avoid guys that are that highly owned, but I see no way I can avoid DJ this weekend. I’ll make it work with him. Devontae Booker is an interesting case in that he has a great matchup, but I’m not sure he’s not going to lose carries to Kapri Bibbs. As a matter of fact, if I need to save some money to make sure I get David Johnson into my lineups it’s going to be with a very cheap Bibbs. He only had 3 touches in Week 10 but that late TD catch and run was electric, and it’s not like Booker did anything to impress (10 carries for 22 yards). Mark Ingram had a monster week and that may very well put people back on him. I’m one of those people. DEN has a much worse rushing D than you realize, and I’m going to be more than happy to pick on them with Ingram and his new-found confidence.

– It’s finally happened; the Jags have finally realized that Chris Ivory is their best RB. Good for JAX and good for Ivory. He’s a very sneaky play against a run defense that’s not as good as you think. Robert Kelley has a really tough matchup, but I think he gets the carries going forward for the Redskins. I won’t use him, but he’s a fairly cheap option if you need it. Spencer Ware should be inserted right back into the starting lineup if he’s healthy this weekend. CAR isn’t the best matchup, but Ware can get you points through the air as well and that makes him pretty valuable. Jordan Howard reemerged two weeks ago and it looks like he’s the no doubt lead back for the Bears. If you’re not stacking Cutler/Jeffery, he’s a guy you can use.

– I love Bibbs a little too much this weekend. We will see on the Weekend Update if I’ve come to my senses or have gone all in.  Until then, he’s an interesting punt play for your Thursday slate lineups. ATL can’t defend RBs coming out of the backfield. Few are better at that than Sproles. KC can be run on (Ivory just went over 100 yards) and JStew is a big part of the CAR offense. Nobody is going to own him and he’s capable of a 2 TD game any time.

 


WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) @ NOKelvin Benjamin (CAR) vs KCDeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ JAX
Brandin Cooks (NO) vs DENMichael Thomas (NO) v DENAllen Robinson (JAX) vs HOU
Julio Jones (ATL) @ PHIKenny Britt (LA) @ NYJBrandon Marshall (NYJ) vs LA
Mike Evans (TB) vs CHIMohamed Sanu (ATL) @ PHITavon Austin (LA) @ NYJ
Jordy Nelson (GB) @ TENAlshon Jeffery (CHI) @ TBJordan Matthews (PHI) vs ATL
Stefon Diggs (MIN) @ WSHJamison Crowder (WSH) vs MINRandall Cobb (GB) @ TEN
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) vs SFJarvis Landry (MIA) @ SDRishard Matthews (TEN) vs GB
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs DALJohn Brown (ARI) vs SFJ.J. Nelson (ARI) vs SF
Dez Bryant (DAL) @ PITCole Beasley (DAL) @ PITDoug Baldwin (SEA) @ NE
Julian Edelman (NE) vs SEAChris Hogan (NE) vs SEA

 

– Who isn’t going to own Mike Evans this week? The guy is a monster and nobody on the Bears is going to be able to stop him. He’s very pricey and using him will prohibit you from going too big at RB, but his upside is incredible. The Steelers play a lot better at home than they do on the road; I expect AB to come through with a big game against Dallas. Jordy finally looks like his old self, and Rodgers is targeting him a lot. He’s a TD machine, and TEN has been giving up big scores weekly. This game is going to be a shootout. Jordy should be a big part of it. Another target machine is Stefon Diggs. He was kind of disappointing with his sub-8 yard per reception on Sunday, but if he keeps getting 10+ targets he’s going to turn them into big games quickly.

– DEN is not a good matchup for anyone, but Brees in the Dome is a monster. I don’t think NO goes off for a huge game, but when they throw it’s going to be away from DEN’s solid coverage and more likely towards Michael Thomas. Thomas has been looking like a WR1 recently and Brees’ trust in him grows weekly. He’s very much in play this week for me. One of my top WR targets in Week 10 is going to be Alshon Jeffery. Big things are coming for him and Cutler against the Buccaneers. They have given up the fourth most points to opposing WR, and the Bears duo has a special connection. Kenny Britt has been the best WR for LA all season long (6+ targets in all but one game this season) and the Jets have a terrible secondary. The only way LA stays in this game is via the pass, and Britt is the main man there. He’s going to be a guy I own a lot of this weekend. Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley have limited upside but really nice floors. Both are safe guys to use if you’re going a little more risky with your other picks. Mohamed Sanu has come on quite a bit lately and gives you a nice matchup without the high cost of Julio Jones.

– Rishard Matthews has a TD in 4 of his last 5 games (5 TD total). He’s also averaging 5.6 targets per game over that time span. The GB secondary is banged up and exploitable. I think this game is a shootout; I wouldn’t be surprised to see another good game from Matthews. He’s exactly the type of WR you want if you’re going to load up at RB. Another WR I want in that situation is J.J. Nelson. Over his last two games he’s averaged 9.5 targets and 80 yards per game. He’s clearly passed Michael Floyd on the depth chart for ARI and a matchup against SF shouldn’t hurt his numbers. Jordan Matthews hasn’t put up monster numbers the last two weeks (an average of 8-75), but he has put up monster target numbers (24 total in those two weeks). This week he’s facing the 2nd most generous defense to opposing WR and he’s pretty cheap. You can comfortably fit him into a lineup as your WR1 and go huge at RB.

 


TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs SEATravis Kelce (KC) @ CARZach Miller (CHI) @ TB
Greg Olsen (CAR) vs KCC.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) @ JAXKyle Rudolph (MIN) @ WSH
Jordan Reed (WSH) vs MINCameron Brate (TB) vs CHIVance McDonald (SF) @ ARI
Delanie Walker (TEN) vs GBRichard Rodgers (GB) @ TENLadarius Green (PIT) vs DAL
Antonio Gates (SD) vs MIA
Jimmy Graham (SEA) @ NE
Jason Witten (DAL) @ PIT
Austin Hooper (ATL) @ PHI

 

–  There are so many awesome choices at TE this weekend. I think Gronk, Graham, and Walker will end up the most popular so I’ll most likely not be using them. You know me, can’t be a lemming. If I’m looking at the public picks I’ll probably end up going with my old standby, Antonio Gates. He’s been great since returning to the lineup and he’s still really cheap. I see no reason to not use him right now. Austin Hooper is also in the discussion as long as I know he’s going to get the reps. I won’t be touching Jason Witten. He’s only had one good game all year…last week, which was more of a mirage than anything. I’ll let him be everyone else’s problem.

– It a little early to know for sure, but there’s a really good chance that Cameron Brate is going to be my most highly owned TE. He’s had 11 targets and 2 TD over his last two weeks and remains incredibly cheap. I’m more than happy to save up at the TE position so I can spend up elsewhere (top end RB seems to be where that money is going). I think the cat is out of the bag about C.J. Fiedorowicz, but that won’t stop me from looking his way since he’s become a favorite target of Osweiler. He’s had 7 or more targets in each of his last 4 weeks; you can’t ask for much more than that from a low-end TE.

– I like Miller a lot more with Cutler in the fold, and TB isn’t great defensively at all. They just gave up a big game to Austin Hooper and Miller will be the de facto WR2 for CHI this weekend. If Ladarius Green finally makes his return this weekend I’ll be sure to use him. PIT needs someone to help this offense and maybe a big pass-catching TE is just what the doctor ordered.

 


DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Carolina Panthers vs KCHouston Texans @ JAXLos Angeles Rams @ NYJ
New York Jets vs LASan Diego Chargers vs MIATennessee Titans vs GB
Arizona Cardinals vs SFWashington Redskins vs MIN
New England Patriots vs SEA

 

– With all the good offensive matchups, it’s a rough week to pick a defense. For my money, I’m all about the Jets and Cardinals if I’m going with the public. The 49ers put on a show against the Saints, but that was at home…and it was against the Saints. ARI should be able to put a hurt on Kaepernick, and I have no problem paying up for them. The Rams are a bad offense to begin with, and now they’re going all the way east for an early game. This could be a big time get well game for New York.

– Houston should be able to contain the Jaguars and get to Bortles, although I’m a little worried that the garbage time warrior will hurt the Texans’ point total with a couple of late TDs. That said, if I can get a few sacks and turnovers I’ll be happy either way. Despite all the points the Chargers gave up against the Titans, they still pressured Mariota all day and came up with 2 pick sixes. Tannehill is nowhere near as good as Mariota. I’m not calling another defensive TD, but with Bosa doing his thing SD is no longer a defense to overlook.

– Seattle’s offense looked great on Monday night, which might scare people off the Patriots. For the season the Seahawks have been pedestrian, and on the road they’ve been worse than that. NE always gets pumped up for prime time games, and you know Belichick is going to have something up his sleeves in this one. While I don’t love the Rams offense this week, their defense does get to face the human interception machine, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tennessee gets a lot of sacks, and the GB offense is a little off right now. I wouldn’t consider them at Lambeau, but in Music City? Why not?


 

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

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