The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Divisional Round FIRST LOOK January 10, 2017  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

ranked in my order of preference for a GPP.

 

 

 


QB

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ DALDak Prescott (DAL) vs GBBrock Osweiler (HOU) @ NE
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs SEARussell Wilson (SEA) @ ATLBen Roethlisberger (PIT) @ KC
Tom Brady (NE) vs HOUAlex Smith (KC) vs PIT

– I could very realistically see all three of the public QB’s at 30% or higher in a GPP. Ryan at home is gold, while Brady is a 16 point favorite and it matchup-proof. Nobody is playing better than Rodgers and if I wasn’t worried about ownership he’d be my hands down top play of the week. With such a short slate I’m still going to be using Rodgers and Ryan but I won’t put all my eggs in that basket. Brady, on the other hand, is a full fade for me since I think this game gets out of hand fast and Brady’s upside is very limited.

– Unfortunately, we do have to worry about ownership so I’m going to take a look at two QB’s that I think may go under the radar. The first guy is Dak Prescott against a sad Packers secondary. Make no mistake about it, the Pack looked like garbage against the Giants on defense. It’s just that the Giants dropped multiple passes that could have kept that game close. The Cowboys just don’t make mistakes like that and Prescott is more than capable of getting the ball to the open players. The other guy I’m going to look at, and look at a lot, is Big Ben. He’s hurt, he’s on the road, and he’s an underdog. That’s going to keep his ownership down and if I can get any edge on a four game slate, I’m going to take it. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs earlier this year, albeit at home, so we know he’s capable of putting up a big game. He’s not my top QB play for the week, I don’t think, but he’s surely in the mix.

 

 

 


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Thomas Rawls (SEA) @ ATLTy Montgomery (GB) @ DALChristine Michael (GB) @ DAL
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs GBDevonta Freeman (ATL) vs SEATevin Coleman (ATL) vs SEA
LeVeon Bell (PIT) @ KCLeGarrette Blount (NE) vs HOULamar Miller (HOU) @ NE
Spencer Ware (KC) vs PITDion Lewis (NE) vs HOU
Charcandrick West (KC) vs PIT

– The most common RB duo this weekend is going to be some combination of Thomas Rawls along with Elliott or Bell. All three are capable of huge games but, wow, they are going to be hella chalky. I’m going to probably look to use only one of the two on a site like Fanduel, while I’ll probably use two of them on a site with a Flex position but no way do I touch all three. I need some differentiation.

– I think that Devonta Freeman is going to go criminally underowned this week. I don’t have much to go on at this moment but that’s a feeling I’m getting right now. I plan on using his for sure at his reasonable price and very high ceiling. Seattle has been susceptible against the run recently and if ATL finds it difficult to pass, then it could be on the RB’s to move the ball. This is not an unrealistic scenario at all. I also can see LeGarrette Blount having a big day once the Pats get up 21-0 early in the 2nd quarter against an overmatched Texans team. There’s no way that Belichick is going to rub it in against his buddy, Bill O’Brien.

– The only way that Houston can keep things close against the Pats is if they control the clock. They’ll try to do that with short passes to CJF and a heavy dose of Lamar Miller. It won’t work most likely, but on the off chance that it does you have to at least think about using Miller. If my thought process about the Falcons/Seahawks game is correct, then it would make sense to think that Tevin Coleman is a viable play as a flex this weekend. I wouldn’t use him on Fanduel.  Christine Michael looked really good against the Giants, for at least one drive, and at some point the Packers are going to give carries to an actual RB. This could be that week.

 

 

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WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ KCMohamed Sanu (ATL) vs SEATerrance Williams (DAL) vs GB
Randall Cobb (GB) @ DALDeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ NEJermaine Kearse (SEA) @ ATL
Davante Adams (GB) @ DALJulian Edelman (NE) vs HOUJustin Hardy (ATL) vs SEA
Doug Baldwin (SEA) @ ATLEli Rogers (PIT) @ KCMichael Floyd (NE) vs HOU
Paul Richardson (SEA) @ ATLJeremy Maclin (KC) vs PIT
Julio Jones (ATL) vs SEADarius Heyward-Bey (PIT) @ KC
Tyreek Hill (KC) vs PIT

– As usual, the WR position is the most loaded on this slate. We’ve got very good matchups for Antonio Brown, Julio Jones (when he’s at home, every matchup is good), Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Doug Baldwin. Narrowing down your choices is going to be tough. The one thing that might work in your favor with these high end WR is that people are going to spend up on RB so if you want to be contrarian, there’s going to be an opportunity to do so by spending down at RB and up at WR. This is a unique case of being contrarian with high end plays. I love when I can do that because these big boy WR can put up even bigger numbers than their RB counterparts, they just do so less consistently.  I really like the idea of using Julio Jones as people might be scared off because of the Seattle secondary. Give me a low owned Julio at home all day long. I’m probably going to fade last week’s golden boy, Paul Richardson, while I’ll most likely have shares of Mr. Boom or Bust, Tyreek Hill.

– Someone on New England is going to have themselves a day but I’m just not sure who. I think Blount should be just fine, and I like Marty B a lot at TE, but one of these WR is going to pop off. Julian Edelman is going to be the more popular play among the Pats WR but for my money I’m going to take a chance on Michael Floyd. I like how he looked in Week 17 and now Brady has had two more weeks to build a rapport with him. He’s a head case, for sure, but he’s so talented that if he can keep his head on straight he can’t help but be successful. As for some longer shots at WR, I kind of dig Justin Hardy (if you’re fading Julio Jones) and DHB for the Steelers (for that long ball opportunity). I also can see Russell Wilson making an effort to get the ball to Jermaine Kearse after Doug Balwin bogarted his TD last weekend. Terrance Williams is quickly becoming a favorite target for Dak Prescott and he has a knack for getting open long.

 

 

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TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
CJ Fiedorowicz (HOU) @ NEJason Witten (DAL) vs GBJared Cook (GB) @ DAL
Jimmy Graham (SEA) @ ATLJesse James (PIT) @ KC
Travis Kelce (KC) vs PIT
Martellus Bennett (NE) vs HOU

– TE is actually a pretty loaded position this weekend, all things considered. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are the most talented TE on the slate and should be owned if you’re looking for safety with some upside. I think Kelce is going to be the most widely owned TE but with his upside, it’s worth considering anyway. The one player from the public list who may see his ownership drop a little is Martellus Bennett. He’s the guy I’m going to target in a great matchup against the Texans. He’s a lot cheaper than Kelce or Graham and he has insanely more upside than Fiedorowicz. To me, CJF is more of a cash game play than anything.

– I don’t know how much action there’s going to be past the top 4 TE but if I’m going to look anywhere else it’ll either be Witten (for safety) or Cook (for upside). I really do like the idea of using Witten if you’re going to use a riskier lineup because, while he won’t win you a GPP, he surely won’t lose it for you either. He’s like a much cheaper version of Fiedorowicz. Cook is so hit or miss that he’s the TE you’re going to use if the rest of your lineups is pretty safe.

 

 

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DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
New England Patriots vs HOUKansas City Chiefs vs PITSeattle Seahawks @ ATL
Atlanta Falcons vs SEAPittsburgh Steelers @ KC

– I’m not going to lie, defense is really ugly this weekend. It makes sense, we’ve got the best of the best playing (and Houston) so it’s not a surprise that you’re not going to want to play anyone against these offense. Wait, what was that?? I said “and Houston”?  Yeah, you pretty much want the Patriots this weekend but in a GPP is that the best decision? New England defense is the chalkiest chalk that ever did chalk and I’m going to try to work my way around having to use them. The team that I can see myself using more than New England is the Steelers. They have looked pretty good defensively the last few weeks and KC is the weakest non-Houston offense left. It’s a risky move to use Pittsburgh on the road against a team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes but there aren’t really many other places to go. The only other team I can see myself warming up to is the Falcons against a Seattle team that isn’t great on the road.  Like I said, defense is ugly.

 

 

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Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

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