My Guys: ADP 1-75 August 19, 2014  |  Chet


 

Cheat Sheet Creator – Draft Analyzer – Draft Assistant – Auction Calculator

Get our DFS Cheat Sheets  free just by signing up and depositing at DraftDay or Fantasy Elite!

 
Good day and or evening Fake Footballers. (Yes, we have readers on the other side of the Earth, so it can be or!) Below I’ve started my short series on players I like this season compared to their ADP. For reference I’m using FantasyPros ADP which smushes together ADP’s from around the internets. For this article I’ve looked at ADP 1 through 75, well 2 through 75 because you can’t like a guy more than most out of every human. So without further ado:

 

Montee Ball – ADP: RB 9, Overall 17 – I believe Ball is worth a first round pick this season, but his ADP puts him in the second round. Of course he has yet to prove himself, so the first round is risky, but he’s shown me enough to believe he will be the lead back in Denver and we know what that means for offensive opportunities. Last season Knowshon Moreno won the starting job and finished as the fifth best fantasy back. Ball had to have his appendix chopped out but is already back to doing drills and is a steal in the second round.

 

Antonio Brown – ADP: WR 8, Overall 26 – Brown finished last season as the sixth best fantasy wide receiver in Non-PPR leagues and the third best in one-point PPR leagues. He caught 67% of all his targets and was second in total receptions and receiving yards. The only thing to keep him from a huge fantasy season was his eight total touchdowns. He may never have the upside for 15 touchdowns, but he does have upside for 10-12 and the Steelers will continue to throw the ball. Brown is the #1 receiver in a pass happy offense. He should be going in the second round at the very least.

 

Rob Gronkowski – ADP: TE 3, Overall 30 – Gronk is risky, there’s no way around that, but his upside is insanely high. In 2011 he scored 18 touchdowns in the regular season. For his career he has 43 touchdowns in just 50 regular season games. And I’m starting to worry less about him not playing the first game of the season now that he’s been cleared for contact in practice. Tom Brady still doesn’t have a go-to receiver other than Gronk and if he can stay healthy I have no doubt he competes for the league lead in touchdown receptions, even against wide receivers. He’s a difference maker that can win your league nearly single-handedly and those are hard to come by.

 

Torrey Smith – ADP: WR 24, Overall 65 – I’ve come around to Smith this season after taking a look at Gary Kubiak’s tendencies to target one receiver and a host of tight ends. Smith is a good to great receiver, but has had Joe Flacco instead of Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball and not throwing him the ball as much as other #1 receivers. I think Kubiak fixes that last part and Flacco does have one of the best deep ball arms in the league. Smith’s upside is very close to top 10 and he’s going nowhere near that right now.

 

Ben Tate – ADP: RB 26, Overall 66 – Tate has flashed ability in the zone-blocking scheme and Browns’ offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan knows all about that scheme having grown up with it. Tate’s injury-prone tag and the threat of Terrance West has kept drafters at bay, but he is going much too late for my liking. We saw what Shanahan was able to do with Alfred Morris in Washington and even last season when they won a total of three games, Morris was able to put up 1275 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, making him the 14th best fantasy back. The Browns will run the ball and they have one of the best offensive lines in the league. His upside if healthy is top 10.

 

Joique Bell — ADP: RB 28, Overall 70 — I will probably own Bell on every team this season based on where he’s getting drafted. In the first half of last season Reggie Bush averaged 21 touches to Bell’s 11. In the second half those touches evened out to 18 for Bush and 17 for Bell, while Bell averaged slightly more fantasy points per game in the second half. If he had held that pace since game one he would have been sitting right at the edge of top-10 production, but even with the early season usage, he still finished as the 16th best fantasy back in standard leagues. And now he is going off the board as the 28th? That seems odd.

The Lions do have a new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi who comes from the Saints way of doing business. When we think of the Saints running backs we often get sad and mad and a little vomity, but I feel good about Bell in this new system. First off, he’s a good goal line back. Last season he rushed 12 times inside the opponent’s 5-yard line and scored seven times. That TD percentage ranks third for all running backs with 10 or more attempts in that same situation last year. He also caught 53 passes (averaging slightly more yards than Bush per reception). Last season the Saints gave two running backs 70+ receptions each! Bell is set up to at the very least see equal time with Bush, up his receptions and continue as the goal line back.

You can look at the Saints running backs last season and lament the fact that they spread the ball around too much. This is true, and if the Lions liked Mikel LeShoure I’d be worried, but they don’t and the only two other running backs to take away looks are Bush, who I believe will be more of the Darren Sproles player and Theo Riddick. Now I love Riddick this season, but his best role is as a pass catcher and I think Bush will block him for the most part. While Bell is a pass catcher and can work in short yardage and early downs. And even if all of this is blowing smoke, he’s still too low!

11 Responses

  1. Tyrell says:

    Nice article! So Im in a keeper league with a WR corp that consists of Crabtree and B Marsh so I took M. Wallace over Brandin Cooks and E. Sanders who were my other top options. I think Wallace will have a bounce back year in that new offense and the combination of having the #1 SOS in regards to WRs. Thoughts?

  2. Josh says:

    Howdy Chet, wanted your take on a keeper decision I have to make. 12-team $200 standard league, everybody gets one keeper. Which one guy do you like best between Forte for $44, Graham for $32 or Gronk for $14? Thanks man!

  3. JC says:

    Why isn’t C. Clay getting any love from the experts. Improved offense line, won’t need to help with blocking. If you make the eagles connection with the new OC, their two tight combined for 900 yards and 9 tds. And Tannehill is going to throw him the ball. Now my draft question, do I keep Lacy with a second round costs or do I keep Antiono Brown with a 8 round cost. I have the third overall pick, it’s a 12 man league , 7 rbs will be kept with 2 to 5 round value. I’ll get either JC, AP or Mccoy with my first pick. Thanks for the advice. JC

  4. herschel says:

    @Doc (old school): 12 team PPR. we are allowed one keeper taken in the 6th round or later and lose the round pick the keeper was taken. worth keeping TY Hilton in the 6th or just go no keeper?

    • Chet says:

      Hey man, how goes?! I’ve been going back and forth on Hilton, but I think you’re getting a little value there with him in the 6th. I’d make that pick in draft if he fell to me, so I could see doing it.

  5. Norman says:

    12 Team PPR, drafting 9th, just did a mock draft, in order of draft #:
    1.Lacy, 2. Antonio Brown, 3.Joique, 4. Roddy, 5. Jordan Reed, 6. Wayne, 7. Toby Gerhart, 8. Luck, 9. Pierce, 10. Shorts, 11. McCluster, 12. Justin Hunter, 13. Dunbar, 14. James Jones, 15. Houston D, 16. Dawson.

  6. Justin says:

    Read my mind on Tate. I understand the risk but feel people are placing way to much emphasis on a possible injury. He fits the system, is a good north and south runner and is running behind one of the stronger o-lines in the league. He could eat and smash his ADP.

  7. ric says:

    What do you think of leagues that don’t have weekly head to head machups but rather each week the top 6 in points get a win the bottom 6 get a loss.

    • Chet says:

      I like trying to make it fairer, but if you are going to do that you might as well just make it a total points league and the most fantasy points at the end of the season wins.

  8. Ric Flair says:

    Like this article mostly because I’m high on most of these guy too.

    What do you think of leagues that don’t play weekly head to head machups but rather each week the top 6 in points get a win the bottom 6 get a loss?

Leave a Reply

2014 Fantasy Football

2014 Fantasy Running Back Review

  The fantasy football offseason is slowly moving along with shuttle runs, forty times, and broad jumps just around the corner. To help pass time over the cold , cold winter months, your pals at The Fake Football will be providing mountains of fantasy coverage on the upcoming season. But before ...

READ MORE

2014 Fantasy Quarterback Review

  Welcome, fake footballers. By this early point in the offseason, you have probably dusted and shined your new league championship trophy for the 73rd time, and hopefully you’ve spent most of January crafting winning DFS lineups with the help of the wizardry that is our weekly DFS cheat sheet. Now, Danny Tanner, ...

READ MORE

Conference Championship DFS: It’s A Trap!

  Check out The Fake Football’s Conference Championship DFS Cheat Sheet!   One last trap for one last weekend of NFL DFS. Some would probably argue that just playing this slate is the trap. Ignoring that possibility, we have two great games on tap Sunday. Four great offenses (all top 10 except NE ...

READ MORE