2012 Fantasy Football

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Fake Football Matchups: A Prelude To Statistical Strategery

posted by Chet

If you know me from my Razzball days, you’ll know that I love stats and especially matchups stats. So while working on The Fake Basketball I discovered the stat EFF. There’s no reason to go in detail, but it shows how good a defense is and can be broken down to show how good that defense is against each position. And then came in Excel wiz Rob Deka to make my life much easier!

He put together an Excel document that allowed me to just input the EFF stats for each position, and wha-la! it would then feed those stats into the magic machine and crap out each player from each position and show us how tough their matchup was going to be statistically. Here’s what I posted at The Fake Basketball for every set of games.

I thought to myself, self, that would be pretty cool to do for Fake Football as well. So I called up Guru Rob and he performed his magic once again!

So this season my Statistical Strategery posts are going to be a little more detailed and easier for me to kajigger!

Instead of the NBA’s stat EFF, I’ve come up with some of my own stats. Well, I just took run of the mill stats and smushed them together.

For quarterbacks I took the rankings from each of these stats — The Football Outsiders DVOA number against the pass, pass yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, completion % allowed, and fantasy points allowed to QBs. I then averaged each of those rankings into one overall ranking to come up with one supreme and powerful ranking!

I did similar rankings averages for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. For defenses and kickers I went solely with fantasy points allowed to D/STs and kickers.

To start the season we will of course be using statistics from last season, but of course those stats don’t take into account a bunch of off-season changes, so at the NFL’s earliest convenience we will be using new stats for our strategery.

So here’s a first look at our new and improved strategery numbers!

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Chet has written for the N.Y. Times: Fifth Down Blog, Rotoworld, Fanduel Insider and Razzball. He is extremely/obsessively active on Twitter and likes cottage cheese.
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  • Is there a move i should make? i also drafted Britt, Benie Wells,Kendall Hunter and TB Mike Williams. Should i stand pat or try to make a move, or hope that Gonzo does his part or go after someone.

  • Dope Freshness Chet! 10 team league yahoo

    RB-Chris Johnson
    RB-Marshawn Lynch

    I was about to get filthy hands on Julio Jones then auto picked Issah Pead, in the 3rd round, do you think i should make any moves? it’s a 10 team league.

    • Looks good for taking Pead in the 3rd! I think your starting lineup is strong.

  • Good stuff but I think the TE rankings are borked. Looking forward to using this during the season.

    • Thanks. Fixed.

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