All the various Internets are abuzz with overreaction to last night’s NFL preseason games. Fantasy football Jesus, Julio Jones, continues his ascent toward — and sometimes, into — the first round. Matt Ryan has completed 79 percent of his passes in two preseason games, effectively murdering his sleeper status. And after a nice little game against Green Bay, people now know Greg Little as more than the big man with small hands.
But let’s all just calm down and take a look at the day’s most important fantasy tidbits. Many of you are holding your drafts this weekend, so pay close attention or your whole damn season will burn in hellfire until Christmas, when you’re chugging eggnog to numb the pain of drafting Micheal Turner as an RB1 and taking Randy Moss in the fifth round.
- Ryan Mathews, out with a broken clavicle, told XTRA Sports 1560 that there’s “no doubt” he’ll be suited up for the Chargers season opener. Neil Ghodadra, the team doctor for the Chicago Bulls and Chicago White Sox who knows something about how broken human bones heal, said it takes the average NFL player 8.8 weeks to recover from a fractured clavicle. I tend to believe Dr. Doom here. I’m drafting Mathews as if he’s going to miss the season’s first three games, making his debut Sept. 30 at Kansas City. Adjust accordingly, and run far, far away from the Chargers’ committee backfield like the hoard of fantasy zombies they are.
- 49ers receiver Randy Moss is, once again, a reformed man. Just like he was in the late-2000s with the Patriots before Darth Vader unceremoniously cut bait and traded the walking locker room tumor. Adding to the multitude of reasons not to draft Moss at his current 10th round ADP was Mike Sando’s Camp Confidential report saying a “rotational role for Moss appears likely.” Moss, part of the 49ers’ WR phalanx, is going to come in an out of games until further notice. Scratch his name from your sleeper list. In fact, just pour acid over his name. Chet will pay for the damages to your office desk.
- You don’t want to rely on the health of Ahmad Bradshaw’s oft-injured feet. His current mid-third round ADP is way too high. And even if you can deal with the Bradshaw’s footpocalypse, there’s news today that little-used running back D.J. Ware could serve as the goal line bowling ball for Big Blue. In fact, the Newark Star Ledger says Ware is ready for a “breakout” year. Whatever. The point here is to leave Bradshaw to some poor schmuck in your league who thinks of Bradshaw as an every down foundation back. He’s not. And don’t forget about rookie David Wilson, who could wreak fantasy havoc on Bradshaw’s production in 2012.
- Matt Ryan isn’t our little secret anymore. Even the non-obsessives among us have seen the light shining from Ryan’s glorious, Schick-shaven face, as his ADP has jumped from 7.1 on Aug. 6 to 5.9 today. See my blubbering love from Matty Ice here and take a look at a couple fantasy tidbits dug up by the master of numbers, Fantasy Douche: In quarters where Ryan targeted Julio Jones at least three times, Ryan had a pace of 23 fantasy points per game. When Julio was targeted four or more times, Ryan’s pace spiked to 29 fantasy points per game, which would almost match Matt Stafford’s 2011 production.
Feel free to flood my Twitter account with important fantasy links I missed and/or hateful diatribes @CDCarter13. And look for my updates from Fantasy Football Fest in Atlantic City this weekend, where Fantasy Geek Nation will discuss and debate the latest ways to over-think draft decisions, trades, and waiver wire pickups. If you’re in attendance and would like to kick me in the gut for some piece of god awful advice I’ve given you, I look like this.