Experts Mock Draft: Second Round
July 2, 2013 | Chet
Welcome to the second round of our Experts Mock. The first round may be found by hovering and clicking here.
Draftmaster’s are played out without the draftees involvement. Mr. Jim Day organizes them and he’s up to about 1.2 billion at this point. If you want to get in on one you should tweet him –> @FantasyTaz.
The league settings are 4 points per TD pass, .5 PPR — 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D, 1 K, 6 bench players.
13. @CDCarter13 — David Wilson — At this writing Wilson’s ADP is 35th overall and 20th for running backs. Would Mr. Carter have been able to get him his next pick at 36? Not likely. So this is a situation where you have to make a clear choice. Often when I have a player ranked much better than his ADP I will do my best to wait on him until the last possible pick I think I can get him. That was this pick for Mr. Carter. Wilson’s upside is huge. His biggest obstacle right now is losing goal line looks to Andre Brown. How much will that hurt him? Wilson has the upside of a CJ Spiller from last season, but of course his downside is pretty far down if he doesn’t break many 10+ yard touchdowns. It’s too early for me, but I also say to grab “your” guys so you won’t be kicking yourself all season if they blow up and Wilson surely has blow up potential.
14. @Chet_G –Dez Bryant — I was surprised to see Bryant’s ADP sitting right at 14th overall. I thought the jury was still out for some, but it looks like you are going to have to pay to get him, which I don’t mind doing. I have him as my second ranked receiver to Calvin Johnson with the upside to meet Johnson’s numbers. I really like Green, Jones and Thomas this season, but I feel that Bryant has that extra ability that will set him apart. His second half numbers last season were astonishing and I think he’ll build on those. I usually go running back/running back in drafts, but Bryant and Johnson may be my exception in 3 wide receiver leagues this year.
15. @RotoPat — Alfred Morris — I do have Morris ranked ahead of Dez in non PPR this season and thought long and hard about taking him at 14, but the .5 PPR and 3 starting receivers tipped the scale for me. Morris is rock solid and even though he doesn’t get receptions, his team is committed to him and the run. The fact that Robert Griffin III keeps defenses off-balance makes his job even easier.
16. @KyleWachtel — Jimmy Graham — With Aaron Hernandez in jail and Rob Gronkowski nursing a back injury, Graham has become the clear frontrunner in the tight end race and all the other contenders can’t really compare, especially in PPR leagues where Witten and Gonzalez are the only other tight ends with 90+ reception potential. His ADP is actually 18th overall right now, but it will be difficult finding him there from here on out.
17. @SchaufDS — AJ Green — Green is currently the second wide receiver going off draft boards and this is a good spot for him. Last season he was second in red zone targets with 26 and that isn’t going to change. He was also hurting in the second half of the season, so his upside is even higher than his 1350/11 season last year. I am not an Andy Dalton fan, but he know who is bringing home the bacon (pigskin).
18. @FantasyDouche – Juli0 Jones — Jones is a top 5 talent, but unfortunately he was the 19th most targeted receiver last season while Roddy White was targeted the 10th most. Of course Jones beat him out in fantasy points by a slim margin ranking them as the 9th and 10th best fantasy receivers respectively, but his inconsistency can hurt in head to head leagues. How much will that change this season? Much depends on Jones staying on the field. He didn’t miss any games last season, but was slowed down by injuries. If he can stay healthy, we’ll see his targets rise along with his production.
19. @AlexMiglio – Chris Johnson — What to do with CJ? Last season he had 9 top 25 running back fantasy weeks, 3 top 5 and 2 below the top 51. So he was only “startable” in 9 of his 16 starts. There were 15 running backs ahead of him in that stat. He has all the skill in the world, but some weeks it’s just not there. The big question is, will his strengthened offensive line help him this year? It very may well, but with his ADP at 20th overall, I think I’ll probably let someone else find out.
20. @LordReebs — Brandon Marshall — Last season Marshall almost beat out Calvin Johnson as the #1 fantasy wide receiver and that’s saying a lot when Megatron broke the record for mast receiving yards. Marshall had absolutely no competition for targets last season and was force-fed the ball 192 times (3rd in the league) and this is a team who ranked 27th in total passes. With Marc Trestman now at the helm you can count on the Bears not ranking 27th in pass attempts. Hopefully for the Bears sake they won’t have to give Marshall 40% of their targets with Martellus Bennett in the fold and Alshon Jeffery and Earl Bennett maybe not continuously hurt. But he could still a huge number of targets with a little more room to catch said targets. I’m high on Marshall this season an the new offense.
21. @davidgonos — Steven Ridley —Earlier in the year I was pretty scared of Shane Vereen, who I think is a better pure runner than Ridley, but with the Patriots woes this off-season, I believe they will rely on the run even more than they did last season and that was quite a bit. Last year they were 2nd in rushing attempts to the Seahawks and there’s no reason that number couldn’t go up this year. There will plenty of red zone and goal line looks for Ridley, which is where us fake players make the big bucks.
22. @LateRoundQB — Darren Sproles — Sproles is always undervalued in fantasy for some reason, so I’m not against grabbing him before his ADP of 40, but I do think JJ could have still gotten him at pick 27 and grabbed someone like Demaryius Thomas or Larry Fitzgerald at this slot. I love Sproles, so it’s hard for me to say this is a bad pick, I just might have gone that direction.
Eric_Edholm — Maurice Jones-Drew — I thought that MJD had fallen in this draft, but it looks like this is right where his ADP is at the moment, which is probably going to be too high for me. I don’t hate this pick late in the second, but I would probably have to wait until the third. When news of him practicing and “looking good” starts to hit, his ADP will probably head closer to the early 2nd round where I won’t have anything to do with him.
24. @FantasyTaz — Larry Fitzgerald — I am all aboard the Fitzwagon as I think Taz is as well. Here is an interesting stat by Doug Farrar:
In 2012, no Cardinals QB had a positive DVOA on any down, in the red zone, in or out of shotgun. Carson Palmer will look like Brady to them.
— SC_DougFarrar (@SC_DougFarrar) June 29, 2013
I’ve beat this horse many times, but Fitz had TWO catchable passes over 20 yards last season. TWO! He’ll be better this season without any doubt, but he’s too good not to be great.