Dynasty: Mocking a Startup January 11, 2014  |  Chad Scott


Mock drafting is an essential tool for any avid fantasy footballer.  Interpreting where the value at each position lies is key to success, whether it be in redraft or dynasty.  Despite what most think, it’s never too early to begin mocking your next dynasty team.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I’ll be holding mock drafts each month during the off-season courtesy of thefakefootball.com, with our gracious host, myfantasyleague.com.  If you’re ever feeling the itch to jump into one, follow Rich or me on Twitter for future openings.

Our first mock draft began on December 13th with 11 other dynasty degenerates.  Looking back at 2013 ADPs from Ryan McDowell’s (dynastyleaguefootball.com) mock drafts from January through August, the landscape of dynasty sure has changed.  It’s fun to see players you drafted in the fifth or sixth rounds of startups last season, make their way up towards first and second round status this season.

If you’re new to the dynasty, you’ll probably scratch your head at some of the picks made early on, in the middle and perhaps, the end, but rest assured, all these dynasty sharks know what they’re doing – mostly.

Without further ado, I give to you the first Fake Football Dynasty Mock of the season:

 

Round

Player

Position

Age

1.01

A.J. Green

WR

25

1.02

Josh Gordon

WR

22

1.03

Calvin Johnson

WR

28

1.04

Dez Bryant

WR

25

1.05

Julio Jones

WR

24

1.06

Demaryius Thomas

WR

26

1.07

Lesean McCoy

RB

25

1.08

Jimmy Graham

TE

27

1.09

Jamaal Charles

RB

27

1.10

Giovani Bernard

RB

22

1.11

Alshon Jeffery

WR

23

1.12

Matt Forte

RB

28

 

Last year, Calvin Johnson was the clear-cut #1 overall pick amongst dynasty circles – rightfully so.  As you see in our first mock, he was taken with the 1.03 pick.  Josh Gordon is a guy who did nothing but make himself untouchable in dynasty and will be most people’s #1 or #2 overall player heading into their drafts.  It’s almost a lock any combination of the top six wide receivers are off the board with the first six or seven picks.  Wide receivers have the longest shelf life and given it’s a passing league, it makes sense to snatch a top wide out whenever possible.  Since 2010, the amount of 300-plus point receivers has grown in each season.  Roddy White was the lone 300-pointer in 2010, followed up by Calvin and Wes Welker in 2011.  2012 saw four wide receivers hit the mark (Calvin, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant), while 2013 saw its most ever with an unprecedented SIX receivers obtaining legit-status (Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Green, Calvin and Antonio Brown).  Only three running backs hit the 300-point target in 2013 (the three backs you see above, with the exception of Giovani Bernard) – and therein lies the problem with full point PPR scoring for all positions – but that’s an entirely different conversation.  Jimmy Graham is the clear choice for #1 tight end, given the mounting injuries Rob Gronkowski has endured these past two seasons.  Graham scored 87 more points than runner-up, Tony Gonzalez in what looks to be his last season in the NFL.  The most surprising picks may be Bernard at 1.10 as the RB4 off the board and Alshon Jeffery as the WR7 at pick 1.11.  Given their age (22 and 23, respectively), I have zero issue with either pick.  ‘Twas an interesting start to the draft, for sure.

Favorite pick: Jamaal Charles (I still heart you, Gordon)

Getting Charles at the 1.09 slot is thievery.  He led all of fake football in fake points by a skilled position player with 379.3 whilst sitting out the final regular season game of 2013.  If I don’t get one of the top six wide receivers, Jamaal CharlesCharles is the guy I’m targeting.  He’s approaching that age where the wheels fall off (27), but keep in mind, he has almost 200 less touches than Lesean McCoy in one more season (Note: was lost for almost the entire 2011 season after suffering a knee injury in week two).  He just turned 27 at the end of December and McCoy will be 26 when the 2014 season hits.  I’ll take either, please and thank you.

Least favorite pick: Matt Forte

Forte had a 2013 season for the ages.  Everything C.D.Carter and Rich Hribar said about the Marc Trestman offense came to fruition as he was the second-best fantasy running back.  But for me, taking a 28-year old running back with your first overall pick is a cardinal sin.  No doubt he has at least one, maybe two years left of top-five ability, but I’m looking for at least three years at running back, if not more.  A slippery slope when I just touted Charles as my favorite pick and truth be told, any one of these players can find a spot on my teams, but I had to pick one.

 

Round

Player

Position

Age

2.01

Shane Vereen

RB

24

2.02

Keenan Allen

WR

21

2.03

Andrew Luck

QB

24

2.04

Brandon Marshall

WR

29

2.05

Randall Cobb

WR

23

2.06

Eddie Lacy

RB

22

2.07

Doug Martin

RB

24

2.08

C.J. Spiller

RB

26

2.09

Adrian Peterson

RB

28

2.10

Jordy Nelson

WR

28

2.11

Michael Floyd

WR

24

2.12

Cam Newton

QB

24

 

Running backs got some love this round and we see our first quarterback selections as well.  Shane Vereen at 2.01 screams either insanity or ingenious – I haven’t figured out which one yet.  Grandpas – Brandon Marshall and Adrian Peterson – make their cases for elite status despite their aging bodies.  What’s interesting is three Green Bay Packers were taken this round and none of them was Aaron Rodgers – my #1 quarterback.  After two rounds, 12 wide receivers have been selected, nine running backs, two quarterbacks and one tight end.  Get your wide receiver whenever possible – he won’t make it back to you.

Favorite pick: Randall Cobb

To be honest, I’m not in love with any of the second round guys this season.  It’s a tier of players that just doesn’t excite me quite yet.  Cobb is only 23 and in a prolific offense with an elite quarterback.  The injury he suffered this season surely dropped his stock and whoever gets him in early startups will get a steal – especially if you’re in a return yards league.

Least favorite pick: Andrew Luck

I’m not into taking quarterbacks early in redraft or dynasty and Luck at 2.03 is just too steep for me.  I get the ideology behind it, but with legit skill players left on the board, not to mention Mr. Rodgers, I’m not into it.  Not sure what happens to Pep Hamilton, but hopefully something to get him and his HB Blast playbook out of Indy.  If I knew the Colts would let Luck ball out like he does when they’re 21 points down, I’m all for it, but until then, the price is wrong, b****.  Ah, the beauty of dynasty….

 

Round

Player

Position

Age

3.01

Jordan Cameron

TE

25

3.02

Rob Gronkowski

TE

24

3.03

Antonio Brown

WR

25

3.04

Victor Cruz

WR

27

3.05

Percy Harvin

WR

25

3.06

Justin Blackmon

WR

23

3.07

Aaron Rodgers

QB

30

3.08

Le’Veon Bell

RB

21

3.09

Alfred Morris

RB

25

3.10

Trent Richardson

RB

22

3.11

DeMarco Murray

RB

25

3.12

Cordarrelle Patterson

WR

22

 

Round three was a fun and filled with players that I’ll be very curious about as we get deeper into the off-season.  Jordan Cameron was taken just ahead of Rob Gronkowski, the dudes who took Percy Harvin and Justin Blackmon threw caution to the wind while someone else threw up in their mouths when they took Trent Richardson at 3.10.  Wide receivers are still the cat’s meow and have made up 17 of the 36 total selections thus far.  I see a trend forming…

Favorite pick: Corderrelle Patterson

I’m a sucker for this guy and would take him at 3.05 if I could do it over again (yes, that was me being a homer and taking Harvin).  The raw talent Patterson wields on a football field is fantastical.  Once he actually figures out how to play football, he’s going to be an unstoppable force.  Depending on what the Vikings do at quarterback via the draft, Patterson is going to be in the WR10 to WR15 range, if not sooner, in most drafts.  There will be plenty of write-ups on the legend that will be CP in dynasty so if you’re thinking of trying to acquire his service, the time is nigh.

Least favorite pick: Jordan Cameron

The Cameron pick was made before we knew Chud and Norval were out the door – whether or not his success was tied to their offensive approach remains to be seen.  For me, if I’m taking a tight end this early and Gronk is staring at me in the face, I’m making my move.  I love Cameron as a top five option, just not at this price.  Hopefully, Brian Hoyer gets a legitimate shot at being the team’s starter in 2014.  If he is, this pick could be justified as the duo connect on 15 of 20 targets for 146 yards and three touchdowns in the two games Hoyer started and finished.

Next week, we’ll cover at least the next five rounds, if not more… I tend to get a bit wordy when talking about the elite wide receivers.  Who were your favorite and least favorite picks of these three rounds?  Who did we miss?

The more interaction, the better prepared you’ll be once you dive into the dynasty life.  I’ll take your answers off the air.

One Response

  1. Fry says:

    Wait, taking a 27 year old running back you are totally OK with but selecting a 28 year old running back who also had a great season is a “cardinal sin”? Do I really want that 27 yr old as my 1st pick when the next season he would considered a sin to take so early? I am not sure about Jamaal Charles so early. He is due for some regression and getting old especially considering what you said about Forte.

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