Dynasty Hot Reads
September 20, 2015 | Kevin O'Brien
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When a quarterback comes to the line, he takes a look across the defense and tries to anticipate how the original play called with unfold. Sometimes, the response is for the quarterback to stay the course, other times he may read that the defense is stacking the line. After processing this, the quarterback might decide to make a hot read, which is a quick signal to his fellow teammates that he is deciding to change the play at the line. In dynasty, we also have to make hot reads after each week in-season that determines how we might react to what we’ve observed. Just like a quarterback, we may or may not decide to change the original play. Just like a quarterback has multiple options, so do we. We can make little changes, we can make big changes, or maybe no changes at all. However, no quarterback would simply refuse to make an attempt to read the defense, because it was just one play. Nor should we refuse to make observations because it’s only one week.
Every dynasty roster is in a very specific set of circumstances, from construction, personality of the owner, to the league setup. Given these circumstances, you have to be able to make decisions with all of these aspects in context. After week 1, we saw many highly touted dynasty players have underwhelming performances. Below is a list of the week 1 top 15 performers, along with their consensus dynasty rank from FantasyPros.com.
Only 4 of the top 15 were ranked in the top 12 of wide receivers, with four of them ranked above 100th of the wide receivers. While the leaders in analyzing and ranking the top wide receivers could be wrong, I simply cannot resign myself to think that this week is representative of the coming season. The difficulty is the decisions to act or don’t act upon what we are seeing. How do we know what is actionable Intel?
Generally speaking, I prefer to look at the glass half full, where some of your late round bottom of the roster, flyers are providing potentially valuable depth more than you could’ve expected. There are players like A.J. Green, Odell Beckham, Calvin Johnson, and others that will surely improve upon their lack luster week 1 performance.
Is there such thing as a healthy over-reaction?
Under the context of one week and individual player’s performances will in all likely recover, however, I always recommend making your reads and then deciding whether a hot read needs to be made. This can come in the simplest form as an injury taking place or an unexpected lack of usage. The Dolphins acquired wide receiver Kenny Stills in a trade with the Saints, but in week 1 was 4th in snaps among the Dolphins wide receivers. Selected 14th overall in the NFL draft, DeVante Parker saw just 1 snap. These situations can have numerous interpretations, however if you were planning on getting even flex starts from Parker you might need to acquire a stop gap while Parker’s role in the Dolphins offense expands.
Fantasy football can be extremely competitive. There are few ways to gain an edge over your league mates. Making hot reads and putting emphasis on every aspect of your roster, in every week is just one of those many ways.
I will leave you with a quote from Theodore Roosevelt.
“In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing. The worst thing you can do is nothing.”