Dynasty Draft Profile: Wide Receiver Leftovers April 29, 2015  |  Rich Hribar


 

We have covered 38 individual prospects and the entire quarterback position so far in these dynasty profiles leading up to the draft kicking off this Thursday. In case we missed highlighting one of your favorite players by chance, we still want to run through the remaining players available at each position since there are still so many left that you may need to keep a pulse on this weekend and down the line.  To start that off, I’m going to delve into the rest of the wide receiver position while displaying their workout and final season numbers.

As I did with the quarterbacks, I wanted to highlight the importance of draft capital invested into a player and the correlation that has with future fantasy success. In large part, that is opportunity driven, but the players selected in early rounds this weekend will be afforded a longer leash early in their careers than later selections. Wide receivers selected in the first round account for nearly 44 percent of every top-10 scoring PPR season ever while an undrafted deeper dig has a longer road to fantasy relevancy.

 

WRDRAFT

 

Intriguing Options

 

PlayerSchoolFY AgeHtWt40YDVertBroad20YS3CREC/GmYDS/GmTD/GmMS YD
Tony LippettMichigan State22.5741924.61361144.136.925.092.20.8535%
Dezmin LewisCentral Arkansas22.1762144.5833.51194.287.115.378.80.7528%
Bud SasserMissouri22.6742194.5334.51264.316.865.571.60.8638%
Antwan GoodleyBaylor23.3702094.44351274.387.196.083.00.6017%
Jordan TaylorRice22.9762094.5236.51224.466.695.484.20.7028%

*MS YD = Percentage of Team’s Passing Yardage

 

Bud Sasser is my Jaelen Strong and Devante Davis arbitrage play. But unlike Strong, he has outstanding agility to go with much of the same physical overlap.  The hang-up from a production sense is that he  was an extremely late bloomer, buried on the depth chart behind Dorial Green-Beckham and L’ Damian Washington in 2013 and had just 73 total targets prior to his senior season. But this past year he racked up 32 percent of the Mizzou targets, scored in eight of 14 games, four with multiple scores.  He’s a big red zone target and outside the numbers target for a team available late.

Jordan Taylor ranks mostly just under the thresholds I look for in a receiver athletically, but not so far off that I’d run completely away.  He also has three nearly identical seasons of production with no real breakouts, having the same target share, reception and yardage totals all three years, which are kind of telling that he’s possibly a peaked commodity. He attacks the ball like you’d expect a guy with his size to do and uses his frame naturally well.

Dezmin Lewis is packaged in a physical frame that I like to target as a later round flyer or pick up and the best parts of his game suit that frame. He has good body control and tracks the deep ball better than a lot of receivers in this class. The short end is that he’s still a very green player, limited in just about every other area of his game, especially in on-field strength. He’s going to be more of a project than a day one contributor, so he’s going to require eating a roster spot early on his career, but is a player to track on day three for destination.

Antwan Goodley is on my radar late because he has a strong season of production under his belt while at Baylor and a unique physical profile. He has a stellar speed and explosion profile as he’s built more like a running back and it shows as the best aspect of his game is when he has the football in his hands. He projects to be better as an interior receiver in the NFL as Baylor used him more outside this past season and his production took a big hit. On just one fewer target (109) than he had in his 2013 breakout, Goodley had his catch rate (66.1 percent in ’13 to 55.6 percent in ’14) and yards per target (12.4 to 7.7) plummet.

Not much unlike Sasser, Tony Lippett was a late bloomer in terms of production and usage. He was no better than the third most targeted player in the Michigan State offense during his first three seasons before being targeted on 27 percent of their throws this season as he rewarded their faith by posting a 65/1,198/11 total line with 11.4 yards per target (18th of all receivers with 50 or more targets). He also played both ways at time this past season at cornerback, displaying his overall versatility despite not much athleticism showing up in his measurable physical profile.

 

Dynasty Draft Profile: Amari Cooper

Dynasty Draft Profile: Devin Funchess

Dynasty Draft Profile: Tyler Lockett

Dynasty Draft Profile: Tre McBride

Dynasty Draft Profile: Kevin White

Dynasty Draft Profile: Jaelen Strong

Dynasty Draft Profile: Nelson Agholor

Dynasty Draft Profile: Dorial Green-Beckham

Dynasty Draft Profile: Breshad Perriman

Dynasty Draft Profile: Sammie Coates vs Chris Conley 

Dynasty Draft Profile: DeVante Parker 

Dynasty Draft Profile: Rashad Greene

Dynasty Draft Profile: Ty Montgomery

Dynasty Draft Profile: Phillip Dorsett

Dynasty Draft Profile: Darren Waller/DeAndre Smelter

Dynasty Draft Profile: Justin Hardy 

Dynasty Draft Profile: Geremy Davis

Dynasty Draft Profile: Devin Smith

Dynasty Draft Profile: Devante Davis

Dynasty Draft Profile: Kenny Bell

 

Conundrum Crowd

 

PlayerSchoolFY AgeHtWt40YDVertBroad20YS3CREC/GmYDS/GmTD/GmMS YD
Stefon DiggsMaryland21.1721954.46351154.327.036.279.20.5028%
Austin HillArizona23.5742144.5936.51244.176.723.545.40.2916%
Deontay GreenberryHouston20.8732114.5035.51164.317.235.564.70.4628%
Vince MayleWashington State23.6742244.6735.51174.136.938.8123.60.7526%
Dres AndersonUtah22.373187n/an/an/an/an/a4.483.50.5835%

 

Austin Hill is interesting because he has a solid frame and had a massive sophomore season in 2012 in which he had 1,364 yards and 11 scores. Then he tore his ACL, missed 2013 and looked like a shell of himself this past season. I was really ready to write him off completely because of that declination and his lack of a combine invite, but then he ripped up his pro day, showing great measured agility for a receiver his size. Another dart in his overall profile is that he’s also going to turn 24 this July, so that puts a lot of red on his ledger to overcome altogether. What once seemed promising for him, now feels like a long play, but there is still a little light left in the tunnel due to his physical profile and young breakout.

Stefon Diggs began his college career with a stellar season for a 19 year old, amassing 848 receiving yards, 114 rushing yards while being one of the best kick returners in the country. Unfortunately, he never built on that initial success and he closed his career at Maryland with lows in yards per catch (12.8) and yards per target (8.4). A large part of that could be from the lack of measurable athleticism he has, posting really subpar marks in terms of explosion and agility for his size. Without the requisite long speed and explosion in his game, he’s very likely going to be limited to a slot option only at the next level and may be a player you have to inevitably manufacture touches for.

Vince Mayle is older and his raw final season totals were anchored by his attachment to one of the pass happiest offenses in the country at Washington State, as evidence by his market share totals. He projects to be strictly a possession guy at the next level despite frequent drops, as he has great awareness in zones and in the intermediate route tree. He also has outstanding measured agility for a 224 pound receiver and subpar explosion and lack of any gear in the speed department. With his size and ability to get natural yards after the catch with his frame, he could be reliant on a team not miscasting him from the start as a strict outside the numbers player given his stature and uses his interior strengths as the forefront of his game.

If you’ve caught the theme of this group, you’ve noticed that these are all players that have done something noteworthy at some point and Deontay Greenberry is no different. After a big 2013 season in which he posted 1,203 yards and 11 scores, he followed that up with 10 fewer receptions, 362 yards and five less scores on just one less target (132) this past season.  He failed to rehabilitate any of his stock at his pro day either. Adding up his declination in production, lack of measured physical tools and failing to garner a combine invite, he faces a long road back to being on the radar.

I almost put Dres Anderson into the top group as I am still intrigued by him to a degree, but there’s not much to go off of at this point due to the knee injury that forced him to miss the back half of 2014 and offseason workouts.  Even before that injury, he was pacing to perform well under his 2013 breakout and doesn’t bring the size I look for in my late targets to the table.  He played much bigger than his size in 2013, but still has issues with drops and creating consistent separation which will undoubtedly be compromised further by his injury.

 

Visit The Fake Football Dynasty Headquarters for Rookie Rankings and Previous Dynasty Profiles

 

The Fake Football Pre-Draft Rookie Mock

 

Physical Limitations

 

PlayerSchoolFY AgeHtWt40YDVertBroad20YS3CREC/GmYDS/GmTD/GmMS YD
Titus DavisCentral Michigan21.9731964.5132.51194.287.146.098.51.3031%
Josh HarperFresno State23.1731914.64321084.367.156.478.40.5035%
Jamison CrowderDuke21.5681854.56371154.327.176.580.30.4637%
Andre DavisSouth Florida21.3722114.6032.51184.337.064.574.30.8825%

 

This group is littered with players who will very likely be drafted in round five and beyond. Each has a solid production profile, but also fall well below the thresholds of athleticism that are required to be successful in the NFL. While their production profiles are solid, they were more accumulated as each are capped commodities who evened out and/or declined as their careers progressed. I still anticipate all of them to receive an opportunity which could give them a chance to turn into the cliché “better real player than a fantasy player,” but all fall into the bucket of peaked assets upon entering the league with little upside on my end.

 

Small Ponds

 

PlayerSchoolFY AgeHtWt40YDVertBroad20YS3CREC/GmYDS/GmTD/GmMS YD
DeAndre CarterSacramento State21.7681924.4438.51263.86.648.3110.11.4236%
Darius DavisHenderson State100712264.6437.51174.447.285.1114.61.6432%
Gavin LutmanPittsburgh State23.8752144.46361254.096.655.492.01.0030%
R.J. HarrisNew Hampshire22.6722004.5537.51274.27.237.1110.81.0741%
Tyrell WilliamsWestern Oregon22.9752044.3839.51274.226.535.695.00.8028%
Cameron MeredithIllinois State22.3752074.42391264.176.764.775.80.6432%
Neal SterlingMonmouth23.0752384.6335.51164.257.075.590.50.6033%
Rasheed BaileyDelaware Valley21.4722054.58331184.287.057.3155.21.7353%
Damarr AultmanMaine22.9712024.4840.51283.946.654.445.30.1830%

 

I love small school prospects and this is one of the better crops of incoming talent at the position than I can recall. It remains to be seen if the overall depth of this class limits the opportunities some of these players will receive, but it’s a very good group. There’s really nobody here that you need to target investing rookie draft capital into if you’re in a standard, 12 team, four round rookie draft, but they are names to monitor late in the draft this weekend and where they end going as undrafted free agents for possible pickups in season or in year two if they have cracked depth charts.

DeAndre Carter has arguably the best blend of athleticism and production and is still younger, which is an added bonus that most small school players enter the league with and affords him some longevity in stashing and I’d give him the best odds on being a true draft selection from this group.

Rasheed Bailey has good size and put up crazy numbers at Delaware State this past season. Whereas a prospect like Tre McBride kind of had pedestrian production for his profile, Bailey wrecked his competition. He’s also versatile and moves around the offense, but is a stiffer athlete; especially changing direction and his workout numbers confirm those limitations.

Like Bailey, Darius Davis has an extremely impressive production resume, especially when it comes to finding the paint. He has the best touchdown rate in this draft class (26.6 percent), scoring 42 times in 34 games at Henderson State with 18 of those this past season. His physical profile is lacking the backbone for that production translating completely over, but at 226 pounds, I’ll be sticking a pin in that touchdown upside.

Neal Sterling is my Devin Funchess arbitrage play. He’s a monster from Monmouth, and while he has limited explosion on the perimeter, he has good straight line speed for his size and outstanding agility. Teams are already whispering about moving him to a flex/move tight end position, so I’ll be monitoring his fantasy availability position wise and if he slides into the draft late for a team.

R.J. Harris from New Hampshire is a guy I’m definitely kind of crushing on. He his subpar agility shows up in his game but is a contested catch machine which matches his explosion profile and he has amazing hands. He lead the FCS in receiving yardage in 2014, was second with 100 receptions and 5th with 15 scores. It was his third consecutive 1,000 yard season with 75 or more receptions. He also ran for 400 yards in college.

Damarr Aultman, Gavin Lutman, Cameron Meredith and Tyrell Williams each have outstanding to amazing physical profiles, but each also come with limited overall production for players with those profiles facing the competition level they did. For longer plays, I’d prefer to see more measured production from such athletes, but that rare athleticism will at least have me checking the pulse on their early careers and will be grabbing them on available waiver wires when their opportunity comes along due to that measured athleticism just in case.

 

The Rest

 

I apologize if I missed a blurb here on anyone that was a specific target for anyone. As much as I’d like to do another 25 notes or so, there’s just not enough time and space. Plus, the remaining group all show to have very long odds at fantasy relevancy, though some do have support out there. I’ve listed the remaining prospects at the receiver position below with their measurable physical profiles and final season production marks. For sorting purposes, I had to label all unavailable info with a zero or 100 depending on the measure. Feel free to sort and search away on the rest of the receivers.

 

PlayerSchoolFY AgeHtWt40YDVertBroad20YS3CREC/GmYDS/GmTD/GmMS YD
Chandler WorthyTroy22.0681764.3439.51364.046.943.735.70.2518%
Nigel KingKansas22.2742144.5539.51284.36100.002.748.80.0922%
Cam WorthyEast Carolina22.774211100.000.000.00100.00100.005.092.40.3621%
Rannell HallUCF21.9721984.60411324.156.864.950.00.0016%
Keith MumpheryMichigan State22.6722154.5432.51214.257.072.241.30.2514%
Da'Ron BrownNo. Illinois23.3722054.54371204.117.044.976.10.4340%
Mario AlfordWest Virginia21.9681804.43341214.076.645.072.70.8523%
Levi NorwoodBaylor22.5721974.5734.51234.196.783.531.90.207%
Devin GardnerMichigan23.0752174.6235.51174.386.960.00.00.000%
Jake KumerowWisc.-Whitewater22.9762094.54311134.266.966.0101.51.2728%
Davaris DanielsNotre Dame22.0732014.62371224.356.813.857.30.5422%
Deon LongMaryland21.5721924.51341204.276.984.347.90.1720%
Kaelin ClayUtah22.9701954.51331134.266.973.340.20.3120%
JJ NelsonUAB22.7701564.28361274.157.022.954.60.3325%
Jaxon ShipleyTexas22.5721924.58351204.46.934.948.10.0822%
Matt MillerBoise State23.7742204.79341144.357.135.692.20.6032%
Chris HarperCalifornia21.1701824.52351204.367.034.352.80.5015%
Chris JonesAlabama100701824.6332.51194.196.911.520.30.087%
Donatella LuckettHarding23.9722114.65341184.57.512.360.20.5058%
Ezell RuffinSan Diego State22.8722184.6827.51104.587.353.760.30.2918%
Jameon LewisMississippi State23.1681884.65291104.437.213.642.20.2210%
John HarrisTexas100742134.5933.51184.456.825.280.80.5440%
Shane WynnIndiana22.1661674.34361204.256.894.759.00.2542%
George FarmerUSC21.5722134.4034.51234.277.002.328.50.368%
Jordan LeslieBYU23.2732044.44361304.086.874.2359.920.4622%

 

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