Dynasty Draft Profile: Phillip Dorsett May 1, 2015  |  Rich Hribar


 

Measurables

 

FY AgeHeightWeightArmHand
21.97018530 1/49 3/8
40YDVertBroad20YSS3Cone
4.33371224.116.7

Career Production

 

YearAgeGmRecReYdsReTDMSYD%
201118.9121414715%
201219.91258842424%
201320.9613272216%
201421.913368711029%

*MSYD = % of Team Receiving Yardage

 

Phillip Dorsett is every bit the speeding bullet he’s labeled as, but we really want to know if there’s more to him than that. Through three and a half college seasons (he had a partially torn MCL in 2013), he never crossed the 30 percent market share yardage threshold I look for in production from a receiver and he’s never even posted a big raw yardage season. Outside of his double digit touchdown production as a senior, there’s really not a lot on his production resume to hang a hat on.

In 2014, Dorsett led the Hurricanes with 19.1 percent of the team targets (71 total) and was 7th in the country in yards per target (12.3 yards) of all players with 50 or more targets. He was first in yards per reception of the same group with a gaudy 24.2 yards per catch. Like Sammie Coates who was covered earlier in the week, because he had so many vertical targets his 50.7 percent catch rate ranked just 258th out of 284 receivers with 50 or more targets. Those types of low success targets came out in his reception production for his career as he had more than four receptions in just seven of his 41 games played. It also showed up in his touchdown production as nine of his 17 career scores came from 40 yards or longer with just three coming inside the red zone.

Dynasty Draft Profile: Amari Cooper

Dynasty Draft Profile: Devin Funchess

Dynasty Draft Profile: Tyler Lockett

Dynasty Draft Profile: Tre McBride

Dynasty Draft Profile: Kevin White

Dynasty Draft Profile: Jaelen Strong

Dynasty Draft Profile: Nelson Agholor

Dynasty Draft Profile: Dorial Green-Beckham

Dynasty Draft Profile: Breshad Perriman

Dynasty Draft Profile: Sammie Coates vs Chris Conley 

Dynasty Draft Profile: DeVante Parker 

Dynasty Draft Profile: Rashad Greene

Dynasty Draft Profile: Ty Montgomery

Dynasty Draft Profile: Darren Waller/DeAndre Smelter

Dynasty Draft Profile: Justin Hardy 

Dynasty Draft Profile: Geremy Davis

Dynasty Draft Profile: Devin Smith

Dynasty Draft Profile: Devante Davis

Dynasty Draft Profile: Kenny Bell

His production fits his physical profile, but that’s not entirely a death knell to him being successful because he has a lot of attributes that can aid a receiver of his size. At the combine, Dorsett ran the second fastest raw 40-yard dash time behind J.J. Nelson and had the third best combined agility score (three cone plus short shuttle) behind Amari Cooper (10.69) and Mario Alford (10.71). His raw speed and agility packaged in a compact size to go along with his final season production give us this set of raw comparables.

PlayerSchoolYearDraftFY AgeHtWt40YDVertBroad20YS3CREC/GMYDS/GMTD/GM
John BrownPittsburgh State20149123.7701794.3436.51194.126.915.199.81.2
DeSean JacksonCalifornia20084921.1701694.3534.51204.196.825.463.50.5
Jarius WrightArkansas201211822.1701824.42381204.036.935.593.11
Phillip DorsettMiami (Fla.)2015TBD21.9701854.33371224.116.7372.60.8

It’s not a surprising set of comps as all of these receivers have lived off of home run production. I believe this trio also kind of sets the stages up as a ceiling, middle and floor set of comps for Dorsett. DeSean Jackson is the high end comp and he has the most touchdown receptions of 35 yards or longer (22) in the NFL since entering the league. John Brown and Jarius Wright have also scored five of their 12 combined scores from such distances or longer. If you want a guy to go out and blow the lid off of coverage, Dorsett fits the mold to a tee.

The main difference between Dorsett and a high end comp like Jackson is you really don’t see that elite agility that Dorsett showed in drills at the combine in his game with the football, something Jackson has as an added bonus to his raw speed. Jackson was used in the running game early in his career and was one of the league’s best punt returners over his first three seasons in the league. Dorsett’s agility shows up in double moves and breaks in routes rather than in elusiveness with the football.  Almost all of his yards after the catch are created by his pure speed rather than anything else. That’s not a major knock on him, but that lack of elusiveness showed up when he was given opportunities to contribute on special teams as well. He was never an impact factor in the return game like you’d expect a player with his profile to be, averaging just 19.5 yards on 23 kickoff returns and 4.9 yards on 16 punt returns over his collegiate career.  You can see where Dorsett uses his agility to win in routes and his speed after the catch.


Dorsett shows signs of being a craftsman in routes, although not to the level of an Antonio Brown, who he’s sometimes bracketed in with in comparisons. He’s really not even in Tyler Lockett’s class of route running yet from a smaller framed player. The one thing Dorsett has over a player like Lockett though to go along with some minor nuance that may manifest into more down the line is he displays a fearlessness that can aid him contributing on a larger scale than strictly running straight and fast.

Admittedly, I don’t gravitate to receivers in the mold of Dorsett, which is why I also wanted to cover him and give him a fair shake down. He has a little more filling in his fantasy center to help him overcome being a one trick pony in the NFL but those traits will need more growth as well as real opportunity in avoiding being type cast in a system right away. I also get the sense that he’s overvalued in NFL terms and the league has largely missed on players of his type recently when you look at Paul Richardson, Tavon Austin, Marquise Goodwin, and Titus Young all being top 80 selections in drafts since 2010.  I do prefer Lockett himself to Dorsett in a vacuum based on Lockett’s overall versatility and consistent high end production if we’re talking a player of this ilk. I see Dorsett on the outside  of the top 12 receivers in this class and one to target only if he slips to the mid- third round of rookie drafts.

 

Landing Spot

 

In what was possibly the most shocking and perhaps heads scratching pick of the first round, the Colts selected Dorsett at pick 29. Factoring in that this is the final season of T.Y. Hilton’s rookie contract and with the impending contract extension that will going to Andrew Luck, things make a little more sense as Indy could be covering themselves with a vertical weapon in case they are priced out on Hilton. Dorsett will need that to happen to gain significant fantasy relevance as he lands in a muddy situation immediately with the crowded Colts receiving corps that just selected Donte Moncrief a season ago and added Andre Johnson and Duron Carter this offseason. He will likely begin his career as a niche player, but still is a play away from having a larger role in attachment to one of the best dynasty quarterbacks. Because he needs a few dominoes to fall his way to reach his apex opportunity, Dorsett will remain in that second round turn crowd, but could prove to be an impact selection at that spot if those dominoes do fall properly.

 

Early 2015 Projection: 54.9 TGT/30.7 REC/457.7 YDS/2.5 TD

 

3 Responses

  1. Seth says:

    I think it is spelled Pittsburg State, not Pittsburgh State.

  2. John R says:

    Hi Rich, nice job with the rookie profiles.

    Could you rank the players as you do the profiles? Including the profiles for each player.

    Something like this:

    1 Dynasty Draft Profile: Melvin Gordon
    2 Dynasty Draft Profile: Kevin White
    3 Dynasty Draft Profile: Amari Cooper
    4 Dynasty Draft Profile: Javorius Allen
    5 Dynasty Draft Profile: Ameer Abdullah
    6 Dynasty Draft Profile: Dorial Green-Beckham
    7 Dynasty Draft Profile: Jaelen Strong
    8 Dynasty Draft Profile: Devin Funchess
    9 Dynasty Draft Profile: Tyler Lockett

    Not a complete list nor in the proper order.
    On a foot note; I select 13th in a PPR 16 man league pryer to the draft who would you think could fall to me that would be a nice get? I think 2 QB and one TE (Hill, NO) will be selected before I pick. I’m looking for a RB/WR.

    Thanks!

    • Rich Hribar says:

      Thanks for reading, John.

      I like the idea for when we do rankings. Right now we are kind of scattershot on our order and still have the actual draft that will alter those ranks.

      As for your pick, that’s in an area where you should see some shake up in the RB/WR tiers based on what happens in the draft, but my favorite WR currently in that area (10-15ish) is Agholor and RB is Abdullah. If two QB and a TE do go, then maybe you get someone like Perriman or Ajayi that slide.

      Cheers

Leave a Reply

2015 Dynasty Draft Profiles 2

Dynasty Draft Profile: Nelson Agholor

  Measurables   FY AgeHeightWeightArmHand 21.67219832 1/49 1/4 40YDVertBroad20YSS3Cone 4.4236.5125N/AN/A Career Production   YearAgeGmRecReYdsReTDMSYD% 201219.6131834129% 201320.61456918629% 201421.61310413131234% *MSYD = % of Team Receiving Yardage I’ve mentioned this a few times already in these profiles, but I really gravitate to players who consistently improved as their college careers progressed. In 2014, of the 63 receivers with 100 or more targets in 2014, Nelson Agholor’s 77.6 ...

READ MORE

Dynasty Draft Profile: Wide Receiver Leftovers

  We have covered 38 individual prospects and the entire quarterback position so far in these dynasty profiles leading up to the draft kicking off this Thursday. In case we missed highlighting one of your favorite players by chance, we still want to run through the remaining players available at each ...

READ MORE

Dynasty Draft Profile: Tevin Coleman

  Measureables   FY AgeHeightWeightArmHand 21.771206328 5/8 40YDVertBroad20YSS3Cone 4.39n/an/an/an/a   Career Production   YearAgeGmRuAttRuYdRuTDRecReYdReTD 201219.71251225110490 201320.7913195812191930 201421.712270203615251410   Tevin Coleman is one of the most intriguing and polarizing prospects in this entire draft class. He’s coming off of a 2014 season in which he tallied massive production, rushing for 100 or more yards in 11 of 12 games (his season low was 71 yards in ...

READ MORE