Dreaming of Streaming Week 8: Advice From Vegas
October 25, 2013 | C.D. Carter
There are as many terrifyingly high over-unders this week as there were mouth-wateringly low over-unders last week.
And strangely enough, there are quite a few ideal streaming options in those potentially high-scoring affairs, including the Saints, Eagles, and Packers. Vegas’s message is clear: we expect a handful of blowouts this weekend.
This week’s over-unders provide a good lesson in applying context to our understanding of Vegas’s weekly advice. We should always be on the lookout for the week’s lowest over-unders, but we should never ignore games forecasted to be in the upper-40s and low-50s.
|49ers at Jaguars||40.5|
|Cowboys at Lions||51|
|Giants at Eagles||52|
|Browns at Chiefs||39|
|Bills at Saints||49|
|Dolphins at Patriots||45.5|
|Jets at Bengals||41|
|Steelers at Raiders||40.5|
|Falcons at Cardinals||45|
|Washington at Broncos||58.5|
|Packers at Vikings||47.5|
|Seahawks at Rams||42.5|
* Oakland’s defense is not the uproarious joke they were a season ago. They take on a Steelers’ offense that, while improving over the past few weeks, is still pretty generous to opposing defenses. I have the Raiders pegged as my 10th ranked defense, partly because projection models seem to favor Oakland’s chances in a home tilt against Pittsburgh, and partly because Oakland has forced eight turnovers over their past four games. The Raiders’ defense, for what it’s worth, has the second-softest schedule from Weeks 8-12, according to the rotoViz Streaming D app.
* I’d avoid the Browns’ defense, if at all possible. Cleveland, like the Texans a week ago, is locked in a low-scoring affair with an efficient Chiefs’ offense that has allowed eight turnovers all season. The Browns’ predictable offensive struggles have painted the team’s solid defensive unit into horrific corners over the past few weeks, a trend that’ll likely continue in Kansas City.
* Don’t get cute. Vegas is begging you to stay away from streaming options like the Cowboys, Broncos, and Washington. You’re relying on nothing but a fluky special teams score or a pick for a touchdown if you roll with any of those units. If forced to choose among those defenses, I’d go with Dallas. The team’s secondary has vastly improved over the past month.
* It should shock no one that I think the Packers have the highest upside of any streaming defense – and perhaps any defense, period – this week at Minnesota. The Vikings’ offense is a shambles, with Christian Ponder saddling up behind center after Josh Freeman’s Monday night epic meltdown (and subsequent concussion). The rotoViz Streaming D app – a tool that has helped me throughout this season – projects Green Bay as a top-7 overall play, not just a streaming option. Those who pick up the Packers’ defense should take note: the Streaming D app says they have the fifth easiest schedule over the next four weeks.