Dreaming of Streaming Week 7: Advice from Vegas
October 19, 2013 | C.D. Carter
We have no shortage of potentially low-scoring affairs from which to pick this week, as, amazingly, there are five games with over-unders of 43 or lower.
An unofficial perusal of my over-under charts from this season show that, at most, there are three contests pegged at the 43-point mark or lower. The degenerate Vegas deities have rained low-scoring manna from betting heaven, where fantasy footballers go after David Wilson kills them with sadness.
I think it’s worth remembering that we, as defensive streamers, target low scoring games as a way to hedge our weekly streaming bets. Much like counting cards in blackjack, focusing our streaming attention on the week’s lowest expected point totals is nothing more than an attempt to find an edge — even a small one.
There will always be defenses that pile up fantasy points in high-scoring affairs, thanks to kick returns for scores and interceptions that go for six. But do you want to pin your fantasy hopes on a defense entering a game with a 55-point over-under, hoping and praying for the flukiest of flukes: a defensive score?
|Patriots at Jets||43.5|
|Chargers at Jaguars||43.5|
|Bengals at Lions||47|
|Texans at Chiefs||39.5|
|Bills at Dolphins||43|
|Rams at Panthers||42|
|Cowboys at Eagles||55.5|
|49ers at Titans||40|
|Buccaneers at Falcons||42.5|
|Browns at Packers||45.5|
|Ravens at Steelers||40.5|
|Broncos at Colts||56|
|Vikings at Giants||47|
|Bears at Washington||50|
* I’ve seen quite a few queries about the Miami defense playing a banged-up Bills bunch in South Beach. I have the Dolphins ranked as a top-10 Week 7 unit, but be aware that the Fins’ defense has scored six point or less in three of its five games, and outside of a disastrous Week 6 in Cleveland, the Bills are allowing a meager six points per game to opposing defenses. Just be sure not to play Miami’s defense over options like the 49ers, Panthers, and Chargers, among others.
* That 49ers-Titans over-under is pretty nice, no? You’re obviously rolling with your San Francisco defense, but the Titans are certainly a nice play at home against an ultra-conservative offense. Tennessee, after all, is fantasy’s No. 3 overall defense through six weeks. They’ve scored 11 points or more in four games this season.
* Don’t let that low over-under in the Kansas City game fool you into playing the Houston defense. An atrocious offense can make even the best defensive units look laughable, as the Texans have shown through most of this season and the Chiefs showed through the entirety of 2012. Kansas City’s offense isn’t engineered to tear apart opposing defenses, but they don’t turn over the ball and Alex Smith can kill a defense with 1,000 cuts. Avoid the Texans this week.
* Beware the Packers’ defense this week. They’re a tempting play against Brandon Weeden and company, I know. Green Bay is my No. 18 defense this week because they’re banged up and the Browns haven’t given up more than six fantasy points to opposing defenses since Week 2. Probably there are better options on your local waiver wire.