Dreaming of Streaming: Week 12 November 18, 2014  |  C.D. Carter


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The Green Bay Packers’ defense is going to break the Streaming Score algorithm if it keeps up its downright ludicrous home field domination of opponents weak and strong.

The Packers, who sported a moderately high Week 11 Streaming Score of 3.5, dropped a cool 30-spot on the Eagles, just a week after they put up 17 fantasy points against the Bears, thanks to Captain DGAF. They’re now the third highest scoring defense in fantasy, behind the Dolphins and Eagles.

Green Bay’s defense is available in 68 percent of leagues, and outside of a Week 13 matchup against the Patriots’ Death Star offense, I wouldn’t argue against making the Packers an every-week starting play. They get the Falcons at home on Monday night in two weeks — a matchup that must be among the two or three most appealing defensive plays of 2014.

Here’s how defenses with Week 11’s top Streaming Scores fared. It was disappointing in some regards, but it’s nice to have three top-10 defensive plays even if the scores didn’t point to the Packers, Bucs, or 49ers as optimal plays. Our top Streaming Scores, through 11 weeks, are averaging D/ST7 numbers.

 

Defense Week 11 Streaming Score Week 11 fantasy points Week 11 D/ST rank
Washington 6 4 16th
Broncos 6 4 16th
Bears 5.5 8 8th
Chargers 5 11 5th
Dolphins 4.5 8 8th

 

Let’s get it in Week 12, which features some of the most mouthwateringly high Streaming Scores of the 2014 season.

 

Defense Opponent Week 12 Streaming Score
Eagles Titans 6
Colts Jaguars 6
Bears Bucs 5.5
49ers Washington 5.5
Packers Vikings 5.5

 

*  Wash your degenerate brain clean of the memory of Indy’s front seven being eviscerated by the Patriots and stream them as this week’s Don’t Over-Think It Special. They’re at home and heavy favorites against a Jacksonville offense that should be even worse without up-and-coming stud wideout Allen Robinson. The Colts, available in 84 percent of leagues, notched 17 fantasy points the first time they played the Jags.

 

*  I talked up the Bears’ defense in last week’s Dreaming of Streaming because they were set to take on the ghost of the Vikings’ offense and, well, I ain’t afraid of no ghosts. I know Josh McCown is strutting down Narrative Street this week against his former mates, and the Bears have proven vulnerable to functional pass catchers, but we shouldn’t ignore a streaming score of 5.5, no matter the defense. Tampa is the third worst pass blocking team, per Pro Football Focus, while they’re middle of the pack in run blocking. All it takes is a couple McCown mistakes the Chicago becomes an elite play.

 

*  Washington is in official meltdown mode, once again, and defensive streamers should look to take full advantage in the coming weeks. The 49ers’ defense has been all over the place in 2014 — from seemingly impenetrable to downright porous — but against RGIII and company, I don’t think that matters. While the Rotoviz Streaming D app has San Francisco as a top-8 Week 12 option, I see them as a top-5 play. The 49ers’ second-ranked pass coverage unit, per PFF, could send Griffin to the bench in this one.

 

Defense Opponent Week 12 Streaming Score
Chargers Rams 4.5
Bills Jets 4.5
Chiefs Raiders 4
Texans Bengals 3.5
Patriots Lions 3.5
Broncos Dolphins 3.5

 

*  Kansas City, despite missing out on our top spots for Week 12, is a top-3 defensive option. The Raiders’ offense — like everything else in the organization — is woeful bordering on tragic. Oakland is averaging an unbelievably low 276.6 total yards per game — worst in the NFL. For some perspective: Jacksonville averages 31 yards more per game. PFF rates Oakland as the league’s worst run blocking team — by a long shot — meaning Derek Carr will be forced to the air against a pretty good KC secondary. The Chiefs’ defense is (almost) everything we look for in a streamer: a Vegas favorite, they’re taking on an inaccurate quarterback who will have to throw it a bunch. Kansas City is available in 32 percent of leagues. They’re my No. 1 defense for Week 12.

 

*  Detroit’s offense is static and predictable. We saw as much last week as the Cardinals seemed to know what was coming before the ball was snapped. If Calvin Johnson isn’t making extraordinary plays, the Lions’ offense is unimposing, which is why I wouldn’t back away from New England’s defense here. The Pats are forcing an average of 1.9 turnovers per game, and Matthew Stafford is no stranger to forced or errant throws. The Patriots sport PFF’s fourth rated secondary through 11 weeks. They’re owned in 85 percent of leagues.

 

*  I’m not sure we defensive streamers should be afraid to target the Rams after their inexplicable Week 11 domination of Peyton and company. They were at home last week in a game that amounted to their Super Bowl. St. Louis goes on the road in Week 12 to play a Chargers’ defense that is worlds healthier than it was a month ago. The Chargers’ defense, which has what the Streaming D app pegs as the week’s second best matchup, is averaging 10.2 fantasy points at home in 2014. San Diego is on 86 percent of waiver wires as they head into Week 12 with a decidedly high floor and a ceiling that could put them among the three or four best defensive options.

 

Defense Opponent Week 12 Streaming Score
Cowboys Giants 3
Ravens Saints 3
Washington 49ers 3
Giants Cowboys 2.5
Jets Bills 2.5
Cardinals Seahawks 2.5
Seahawks Cardinals 2.5

 

*  If forced to choose between the Seattle and Arizona defenses, I’d go with the Cardinals, even though they’re on the road and even though Vegas has made the struggling Seahawks a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona’s pesky secondary has forced an average of two turnovers per game. The Seahawks’ passing game is more and more just an excuse for Russell Wilson to escape the pocket and create some sort of positive gain while his middling pass catchers try to get open. The Cards present quite the challenge for the discontented Beast Mode and his merry band of blockers, as Arizona allows just 80.3 rushing yards per game. Only the Lions and Broncos allow fewer rushing yards. I don’t think the Cardinals’ defense has a particularly high ceiling in this matchup, but they’re a fine play if you can’t snag one of our top streaming picks.

5 Responses

  1. Al says:

    Denny love the pod with JJ. Cant’t find the article on which D to stream for the fantasy playoffs that you refered to, me bad.

  2. ulysses says:

    You mentioned a playoff streaming article in the podcast. I can’t find it anywhere!!!

  3. Cam says:

    How does rain effect D/ST projections?

  4. Justin says:

    Thanks C.D., always a good read! Do you have any advice for the Cincinnati and St. Louis DST? Mallet and HOU are bound for a let down game (Mallet wasn’t asked to do too much against CLE, but could be throwing alot this week to catch up) and Cincy shut down Brees fairly well. St. Louis beat up Peyton’s WRs and could very well do the same with whoever the Chargers are putting out there these days.

    Based on your list, it seems that you aren’t as keen on those DST this week and are placing them in the back half of your rankings. Could you elaborate? Thanks!

    • C.D. Carter says:

      Well, these aren’t really rankings. They’re more like indications of how good or bad a team’s matchup is in a given week. I think the Rams are a fine play if you can’t get one of the teams with a top-7 streaming score. Houston probably has a decent floor but I see their ceiling as capped in this one.

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