2013 Fantasy Football

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Dreaming of Streaming Week 10: Advice From Vegas

posted by C.D. Carter

Welcome to Las Vegas sign on the Las Vegas Strip. 11/13/09

I’ll look ahead, not behind, because I know you’re a group of planning, scheming degenerates. I love that about you.

Readers and Twitter followers every day ask for a long-term defensive streaming plan, pitching ideas and mulling options in their leagues of varying sizes. Likely these owners have locked up a fantasy playoff spot, or something close to it. That would make sense, since they’re peering beyond Week 10 matchups into a fantasy future paved with league mates’ cold cash and salty tears.

Planning ahead of snagging defenses who have the best machups in Weeks 14-16 has won more than a few fantasy titles, though it’s important not to take a proactive streaming stance if it means draining your bench of position player depth. Those in leagues with short benches should sit tight more often than not. I’ve been forced to do as much in a couple leagues with four-player benches.

Check out Week 10’s best streaming options

Here are the best defensive streamers for Weeks 14-16, according to the rotoViz Streaming D app and my own analysis and degenerate intuition. Remember that injuries, benchings, and generally unpredictable interventions of fate will make some of these defenses unplayable, while others become must-starts.

I’ve listed these streaming options in no particular order.

Week 14 Week 15 Week 16
KC (at WAS) NO (at STL) DET (vs. NYG)
HOU (at JAC) CAR (vs. NYJ) CLE (at NYJ)
MIA (at PIT) KC (at OAK) TEN (at JAC)
GB (vs. ATL) BUF (at JAC) GB (vs. PIT)
SD (vs. NYG) CIN (at PIT) CIN (vs. MIN)
BAL (vs. MIN) WAS (at ATL) DEN (at HOU)

 

Let’s jump into Week 10’s over-unders and see what Vegas is telling us with their numbers.

Game Over-Under
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers 47
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans 41
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts 44
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons 44.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens 44
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers 43.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears 52
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers 43
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers 58
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals 41
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints 54
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Bucs 41.5

 

* Warning: don’t get cute with any defense from the Broncos-Chargers and Cowboys-Saints games. Vegas says point scoring will likely wipe out any fantasy points gained from turnovers. Again, both games present defenses and special teams that will rely on touchdowns to post decent fantasy lines.

* Vegas projects Pittsburgh to score 23.5 points against a Buffalo defense with a top-10 pass rush (the Steelers are among the NFL’s worst pass blocking teams). That’s a tad concerning, though I still like the Bills as a decent option in deep leagues. They have a high fantasy ceiling and a nightmarish floor.

* Vegas projects a measly 14 points for Jacksonville, which resumes life without Justin Blackmon against one of the NFL’s most suffocating pass defenses. If you were able to pluck Tennessee from your local waiver wire, you’re playing them. Don’t think. Just do.

* Quite a few of you love the Cardinals this week. I didn’t — and still don’t — understand the mass appeal, but Vegas seems to lean your way. The Texans-Cardinals game is expected to be among the lowest scoring of Week 10. I’m just not wild about a torchable Arizona defense going against a quarterback ready and willing to use his offensive weapons the way they were meant to be used.

 

2 Comments

  • I’m playing AZ. There’s a dearth of solid Ds this week. I guess you can go w TEN’s excellent matchup at home, where they’ve avg’d well below 10 pts/gm.
    I’d prefer AZ, who’s performed at a top 8 level at home, has a top 7 run D, Patrick Peterson + safety vs Andre, won’t leave HOU much to score with. Also, Peterson has a better chance than most KR to take one to the house.

  • So you’re saying to fade the Saints DEF? They’ve been pretty good and are at home. Not much else on the WW available in a couple of my leagues.

    I think many people are playing ARZ in order to have them vs. JAC next week.

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