Dreaming of Streaming: Week 8 October 27, 2015  |  Chet


 

 

Week 7 served as a prime example of the limitations of basing our decisions solely on matchups, or their corresponding defensive streaming scores.

Three of the top-5 streaming scores in Week 7 ended up as top-10 defensive units, which is all well and good, but it was the middle tier streaming score that lit the fantasy world on fire. It’s a valuable — if not painful — reminder that some defenses, even if they come into a week with a sky-high streaming score, simply can’t take advantage of a plus matchup.

Anyone who deployed the Giants’ defense took the crux of this column to heart. I mentioned last week that we want inaccurate quarterbacks playing on the road immersed in what will likely be a negative game script. That’s what we had with Matt Cassel. It paid off.

Remember to apply context to the below scores. They are not ranks, which I may have mentioned one or two or seven hundred times.

Defenses with top-5 streaming scores, through seven weeks, are averaging 8.1 fantasy points per week. That’s a D/ST5 pace. I think as the season wears on and we collect more information that makes these scores more accurate, this average will move into D/ST3 territory.

 

Defense Week 7 streaming score Week 7 fantasy points Week 7 D/ST rank
Washington 5 3 19th
Bills 5 10 6th
Falcons 4.5 9 7th
Patriots 4 4 18th
Buccaneers 4 8 8th

 

Now let’s jump into Week 8’s streaming scores, as we look to another week ravaged by bye weeks.

 

Defense Opponent Week 8 streaming score
Falcons Buccaneers 5.5
Rams 49ers 5
49ers Rams 4.5
Seahawks Cowboys 4.5
Cardinals Browns 4

 

  • Running Washington’s defense against Jameis Winston and the Bucs didn’t turn out very well for committed streamers in Week 7. I’m not sure that should compel us to swear off targeting the mistake-prone rookie signal caller, as he’s likely — according to Vegas — to see quite a bit of negative game flow in this matchup. Tampa has allowed opposing defenses to score at least eight fantasy points in three of their six 2015 contests. When adjusted for strength of schedule, only Tennessee allows for more fantasy production to enemy defenses than Tampa. The Rotoviz Streaming D App has Atlanta’s Week 8 matchup as the second best, just behind Chicago. Winston seems to be improving from his early-season disastrous play, but the Bucs still average 1.8 turnovers per game and the Falcons are forcing an incredible 2.7 turnovers in home games this season. I could see Tampa putting up a decent number of points in this one and still giving up a chunk of fantasy points to the Falcons’ defense. Winston, after all, completes just 63.6 percent of his aimed throws. That ranks 30th among signal callers.

 

  • I imagine that the Rams’ defense will once again be widely used in daily fantasy, and seasonal St. Louis defense owners will need to a bucket to hold the saliva dripping from the corners of their mouths when they think of Colin Kaepernick going up against the Rams. You’ll notice that the 49ers’ defense also registers a high Week 8 streaming score. A word of caution here: sometimes the streaming score formula is a little slow to catch up to team trends, and that’s what we have here with San Francisco seeming like a solid play. The Rams’ offense has transformed in recent weeks to a unit that (very rightfully) runs through Todd Gurley, and only through Todd Gurley. Nick Foles isn’t even a caretaker. He’s a hand-off machine who also happens to be a human. The Niners’ high score reflects the Rams before the Gurley Show emerged — when Foles was slinging it into the arms of waiting defenders. Any defense facing the Rams from here on out comes with a low floor and a severely capped ceiling.

 

Defense Opponent Week 8 streaming score
Raiders Jets 3.5
Texans Titans 3.5
Panthers Colts 3.5
Chiefs Lions 3.5
Saints Giants 3.5
Jets Raiders 3.5
Ravens Chargers 3
Patriots Dolphins 3
Bears Vikings 3

 

  • Kudos to those who rolled with Miami’s defense against the team formerly known as the Texans. But please, for the love of your fantasy team, don’t fall in love with the Dolphins’ defense. The Patriots are a streaming defense nightmare: opponents are averaging negative fantasy points against Tom Brady’s Perfect Machine. There’s no reason to believe the Dolphins can pile up sacks and turnovers in this matchup. Look elsewhere in Week 8.

 

  • I think Kansas City’s defense is a sneaky play with a ceiling as high as any Week 8 defense. Detroit, who gave the axe to their offensive coordinator this week, has been fairly generous to opposing defenses in 2015. Defenses have notched eight or more fantasy points in four of seven games against Matthew Stafford and company, as Stafford has been sacked 17 times. That constant duress has led to nine picks for Prince DGAF. My one worry here is that the Chiefs are 28th in quarterback pressures through seven games. Pressure leads to sacks and turnovers. Without it, a defense is in trouble. The dissolving Detroit offensive line — which gave up eight sacks to the Vikings’ front seven in Week 7 — could be the cure for that ill.

 

  • You’re not playing the Raiders over the Jets this week. That doesn’t mean Oakland isn’t a fine and dandy waiver wire pickup in Week 8. While the Raiders aren’t exactly suffocating opponents — they’re giving up 25.5 points per contest — they are forcing 1.8 turnovers per week. The Jets have given up the pigskin 12 times this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 26th in aimed throw accuracy, which falls in line with his career accuracy mark of 60.3 percent. While I would rather use the Chiefs or Falcons defense, I think Oakland is a volatile defensive option with a low floor and a really nice ceiling.

 

Defense Opponent Week 8 streaming score
Vikings Bears 2.5
Giants Saints 2.5
Buccaneers Falcons 2.5
Cowboys Seahawks 2
Packers Broncos 2
Titans Texans 2
Colts Panthers 2

 

 

 

 

9 Responses

  1. Mr. Snuffleupagus says:

    We know Denver is elite but what is their streaming score this week? Or more importantly, should I be playing Atlanta instead of Denver?

  2. goatmountain says:

    After the texans abysmal game last week, how do you feel about running the Titans this week against houston at home?

    • c.d. carter says:

      I think the Titans make for a highly volatile play because they’re exploitable, but the Texans commit so many turnovers and give up so many sacks that TEN could have a big day.

  3. quadatic20 says:

    Where is DEN this week? I know they are top D but against Rogers and GB does seem to be dead lock.

  4. Desperate says:

    Where would you rank the Broncos D this week?

    • c.d. carter says:

      Denver is still an elite play. I think that game could be fairly low scoring and Rodgers hasn’t been immune to turnovers this year. Play Denver.

  5. Gnartared says:

    Bengals?

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