Dreaming of Streaming: Week 13 December 1, 2015  |  Chet


 
 

 
For as red hot as the Kansas City defense was coming into Week 12 — averaging more than a dozen fantasy points over the past month — we saw the importance of matchups in the Chiefs’ Week 12 clash with the Bills.

Buffalo, through 11 weeks, had been more than a little stingy to opposing defenses, only giving up two big performances all season thanks to a mostly conservative game plan and a quarterback who has been very accurate for most of the season. It was, in short, a bad matchup for the Chiefs’ defense (as reflected in their not-so-elite streaming score).

KC managed five fantasy points, which is a small miracle considering the Bills’ offensive explosion in the first half of Sunday’s game. It was a home game and the Chiefs were favored, but their opponent had not committed turnovers with Tyrod Taylor under center. It was an inconvenient lesson for those who committed to plugging and playing the Chiefs for the remainder of 2015.

Here’s how defenses with top-5 streaming scores fared in Week 12. Top-5 streaming scores are now averaging eight fantasy points per week. We had three top-12 defenses among our top five last week. It wasn’t terrible.

 

Defense Week 12 streaming score Week 12 fantasy points Week 12 D/ST rank
Bengals 5.5 17 2nd
Giants 5 1 28th
Chargers 4.5 4 16th
Cardinals 4 10 5th
Titans 4 5 12th

 

Now on to Week 13 streaming scores. Gird your loins.

 

Defense Week 13 opponent Week 13 streaming score
Cardinals Rams 5.5
Titans Jaguars 5
Washington Cowboys 4.5
Bears 49ers 4.5
Jaguars Titans 4.5

 

* I was bullish on Jacksonville a few weeks back when they got the Titans at home on a Thursday night. The Jags were at home and favored. That’s all flipped this week, as Tennessee is now at home and favored by Vegas. That’s why I’m deploying the Titans over the Jaguars if given the choice, though neither defense is a bad call. The Titans give up more raw fantasy points to defenses than any team in the league and the Jaguars have allowed eight points to enemy defenses seven times this season. Blake Bortles is now the third most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL when you account for spikes and throw aways. There’s really no reason to expect the Jaguars to be able to run against the Titans — they could hardly run against the lowly Chargers’ front seven. Bortles will throw. That’s a good thing for Tennessee.

 

* The Cowboys are once again a nuclear dumping ground with Matt Cassel stepping in for Tony Romo and his late collar bone. Here are defensive fantasy point totals against Cassel this season: 13, 16, 7, 9, and 11. Washington’s defense has totaled 24 fantasy points over their past two home contests. At home on Monday night, favored by Vegas, and Cassel slinging the pigskin makes me bullish on Washington’s Week 12 floor and ceiling. Get Washington if you can.

 

* Probably the Niners are a worse streaming target with Blaine Gabbert at the wheel than Colin Kaepernick. Count that among sentences I never thought I’d write. The 49ers have allowed five, five and 10 fantasy points to defenses with Gabbert under center this year. However, I think Chicago’s defense, playing at home and favored in this one, makes for a top Week 13 defensive play. The much improved Chicago defense has scored at least seven fantasy points in each of their past four. The Bears have recorded 30 quarterback hits over that stretch, marking a vast improvement in pressuring the passer. That’s a key in forcing turnovers. Gabbert hasn’t been an atrocity yet, but he remains terribly inaccurate, completing just 67.4 percent of his aimed throws. San Francisco allows the third most fantasy points to opposing defenses, when adjusted for strength of schedule.

 

Defense Week 13 opponent Week 13 streaming score
Falcons Bucs 4
Patriots Eagles 4
Jets Giants 4
Dolphins Ravens 3.5
Giants Jets 3.5
Steelers Colts 3.5
Cowboys Washington 3.5
Broncos Chargers 3.5

 

* Matt Hasselbeck has done a bang up job of not being horrible in place of Andrew Luck; so much so that Deion Sanders suggested on Twitter that the Colts have no need to sign Luck long term. That taek burned down my entire zip code. Hasselbeck and the Colts go on the road against a Steelers’ defense that has been pretty good there of late. In fact, the Steelers have notched 7.9 fantasy points over their past five homes games, including two double digit fantasy point outputs. Hasselbeck has been slightly more accurate than Mark Sanchez on aimed throws this season (28th in the league), so the potential for turnovers is certainly there for Pittsburgh. I like the Steelers quite a bit this week.

 

* The G-Men’s offensive line is a borderline debacle and the Jets put as much pressure on the quarterback as almost any other team (84 pressures through 11 games, second only to Denver). That’s the crux of why Gang Green makes for a promising, high upside defensive option against the Giants. I would warn that the Jets don’t come into this one with a rock solid floor. The Giants have limited enemy defenses to less than four fantasy points six times this season and the Jets’ defense has fallen off since midseason. The thought here is that the Jets can harass Eli Manning enough to force Bad Eli to emerge. We saw that last week in Washington.

 

Defense Week 13 opponent Week 13 streaming score
Chiefs Raiders 3
Bengals Browns 3
Vikings Seahawks 3
Bucs Falcons 3
Panthers Saints 3
Packers Lions 2.5
Texans Bills 2.5
Saints Panthers 2.5
Bills Texans 2.5

 

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