Dreaming of Streaming: Week 12 November 23, 2015  |  Chet


 

Five of the top-7 Week 11 defenses were on the road. Four of them were underdogs. There is, it seems, a conspiracy underway against this column.

We look for Vegas favorites playing at home, in case you missed it, so this sort of one-week outcome can be a fairly deflating experience for adherents of our process. Good for you if you ran with the Bucs, Colts, or Chiefs though. All three teams played against turnover-prone offenses in various levels of flux.

Here’s how defenses with our top-5 streaming scores fared in Week 11. Top streaming scores are now averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game, which would be good for D/ST4 through 11 weeks. My hope is to crack the top-3 by season’s end.

A quick reminder: streaming scores measure the strength of a team’s matchup, not their ability to take full advantage of said matchup. That’s why terrible defenses often crack the top streaming scores while much more reliable options are in the second or third tier. That doesn’t mean you should plug in the defense with the higher streaming score. But if you do that and have success, I will gladly take credit.

 

Defense Week 11 streaming score Week 11 fantasy points Week 11 D/ST rank
Eagles 5.5 1 24th
Ravens 5.5 13 5th
Panthers 5 16 3rd
Jaguars 5 10 7th
Titans 2.5 9 8th

 

Now let’s get into Week 12’s streaming scores with as much vigor as that third piece of pie on Thanksgiving. You know, the one you throw up as your Thanksgiving DFS lineups burn to the ground.

 

Defense Week 12 opponent Week 12 streaming score
Bengals Rams 5.5
Giants Washington 5
Chargers Jaguars 4.5
Cardinals 49ers 4
Titans Raiders 4
Jaguars Chargers 4

 

  • I mentioned Case Keenum as one of the ultimate high-variance quarterback plays in fantasy football. He can be oh so good and oh-my-good-god-almighty so bad. If you picked up the Cincinnati defense in anticipation of this matchup, here’s an early congratulations from me to you. I think the Bengals have this week’s highest ceiling.

 

  • You had to take three swigs of your favorite liquor before you pulled the trigger and picked up Jacksonville’s defense for Week 11 purposes. But you did and you reaped the benefits of a solid 10-point showing, with minimal hangover. The Jaguars get a home tilt against the team formerly known as the San Diego Chargers. While the Jags have just 23 sacks this season, they’ve put more pressure on the passer of late and the Chargers’ offensive line is a travesty headed into Week 12. I once again see the Jaguars as a high-floor option available on plenty of waiver wires. On a related note, I would not consider streaming the San Diego defense against Blake Bortles and company.

 

  • The Raiders’ suddenly sputtering offense doesn’t seem so intimidating after a two-game lull in which Derek Carr looked frighteningly similar to how he looked in 2014. Oakland gave up eight fantasy points to Detroit’s woeful defense one week after they allowed 12 points to the Vikings. The Titans’ defense, averaging 7.4 fantasy points over their past four home games, is a very reasonable play if you can’t get the Giants or Jaguars off the waiver wire this week. Tennessee has the second most sacks through 11 weeks and have forced 1.5 turnovers per home contest. The Titans’ defense has been surprisingly serviceable for fantasy owners all season. I could see the Raiders scoring plenty of points in this one and the Titans’ defense managing a fine fantasy line.

 

Defense Week 12 opponent Week 12 streaming score
Jets Dolphins 3.5
Cowboys Panthers 3.5
Packers Bears 3.5
Texans Saints 3.5
Chiefs Bills 3.5

 

  • The Chiefs’ defense is suddenly playing lights out, which may come as no surprise to anyone who grabbed them off the wire early in 2014 and watched KC force 36 turnovers on their way to finishing as fantasy’s No. 1 defense. They still have key pieces of that defense in place, and they’ve dominated of late, scoring 12, 14, 20, and 20 fantasy points over their past four. Buffalo isn’t the greatest streaming target because they run a pretty conservative attack and Tygod Taylor doesn’t typically force the issue. You should do everything you can to snag Kansas City (27 percent owned) as their fantasy playoff schedule is drool worthy. The Chiefs are shaping up to be league winners in 2015.

 

  • Dallas may look out of place here. I get it. Cam Newton is #good. The Panthers, however, give up a decent amount of fantasy production to opposing defenses and special teams. Five of the past six Carolina opponents have managed at least six fantasy points, including Washington, which had a pick-six called back on a very questionable penalty. Remember that we like to target inaccurate throwers, and they don’t come much more inaccurate than Newton, who ranks 31st in accuracy on aimed throws. That’s just a little better than Johnny Manziel. I don’t mind the Cowboys at all as a Week 12 streaming play.

 

Defense Week 12 opponent Week 12 streaming score
Falcons Vikings 3
Dolphins Jets 3
Steelers Seahawks 3
Ravens Browns 3
Patriots Broncos 3
Browns Ravens 3
Lions Eagles 3

 

  • Joe Flacco’s ACL tear means the Ravens ascend to must-target status for defensive streamers. The Browns’ Week 12 streaming score doesn’t reflect the likely flood of turnovers to come as the zombie of Matt Schaub emerges from the depths and quarterbacks the fledgling Baltimore offense, now featuring backups across the board. We all know of Schaub’s tragically hilarious stretch of interceptions for touchdowns and generally offensive quarterback play during his waning days in Houston. He’s no better today. Get the Browns if you can, and grab the Miami defense if you have room on your bench. The Dolphins get their shot at Shaub and company in Week 13.

 

2 Responses

  1. Mr. Snuffleupagus says:

    Would you start Dallas or Cleveland over Denver this week?

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