2012 Fantasy Football

Ξ 29 comments

Dreaming of Streaming: Week 11 Edition

posted by C.D. Carter

It’s been good couple weeks in the defensive streaming business. The Colts dropped a Week 10 Thursday night people’s elbow on the Jaguars just a week after the Chargers dismantled the Chiefs, intercepting everything but Romeo Crennel’s postgame tray of Cinnabons.

Streaming defenses has made your life appreciably better. Don’t let this make you sad. Just embrace your fantasy sickness and keep streaming toward that vaunted title while your risk-averse league members sink to the bottom of the fake football ocean, dragged down by the weight of underperforming units like the Giants and 49ers.

This week’s column will be a little different, offering not just Week 11 dreamy streamers, but also long-term strategy for those looking toward the fantasy playoffs. I’ve done this for three years now – picked up defenses with favorable Week 15 match-ups – and it’s worked better than I could’ve ever hoped. This strategy is a must, especially for those in leagues with crazy deep benches.

Before we get to Week 11’s streaming monsters, let’s review the make-believe football playoff schedules of the three teams we’re going to target down the stretch.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 14 – vs. Jets
Week 15 – at Dolphins
Week 16 – vs. Patriots
Week 17 – vs. Titans

Kansas City Chiefs

Week 14 – at Browns
Week 15 – at Raiders
Week 16 – vs. Colts
Week 17 – at Broncos

New York Jets
Week 14 – at Jaguars
Week 15 – at Titans
Week 16 – vs. Chargers
Week 17 – at Bills

It’d be foolish to pretend nothing will change between now and mid-December. The Chiefs could suddenly start using their best players instead of Dexter McCluster and Shaun Draughn. Tebowmania could grip New York and the Jets could turn into a functioning offense for a few magical weeks. Blaine Gabbert could undergo a full body-and-brain transplant and play like a serviceable signal caller during the holiday season – a Christmas miracle, to be sure.

These tasty streaming options, in other words, are subject to change.

Here’s what I’m doing in my various fake football leagues: I’m targeting the Chargers in their Week 16 tilt with the Jets. The Chargers, as we’ve seen, have a legit defense, especially against heinous offensive units. They’re opportunistic, as the talking heads say. I’m also intrigued by the Chiefs’ trip to Mile High in Week 17, if your league plays into the final goofy week of the fantasy/NFL season. I wouldn’t begrudge you snatching the Denver defense this week and holding for their chance to let the devilish duo of Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel wash over them with all their ineptitude.

Now for the two best Week 11 streaming options.

St. Louis Rams vs. New York Jets – First, the facts: Tony Sparano’s steaming garbage pile of an offense has seven turnovers in its last three games, and if you’ve been unlucky enough to have watched five minutes of Jets’ football during that span, you’ll know that number should be well into double digits. Several fumbles have bounced out of the defense’s grasp, myriad tipped passes have miraculously fallen to the turf; the Jets’ offense is somehow, someway, worse than it appears.

The Jets are allowing 10.2 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, including 48 points in games against the Patriots, Dolphins, and Seahawks. Rex Ryan insists he’s sticking with Mark Sanchez because he gives Gang Green “the best chance to win,” which probably means Tim Tebow hasn’t completed a pass in practice since mid-August.

The Rams, admittedly, have been sieve-like over the past month after a few strong showings in September, including a 23-point outburst against Chicago in Week 3. Their worst efforts came on the road — the “home” game against the Patriots in London comes to mind. They’ve been steady at home in the dome though, racking up 28 fantasy points in their three most recent home contests. St. Louis has 26 sacks this year, ranking sixth in the NFL, tied with the Bears’ vaunted defensive unit, and the Jets have given up 22 sacks as Sanchez’s pass catchers struggle to find consistent separation.

I have St. Louis as my eighth best defense for Week 11, and I think they have the upside of a top-three unit.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs — Don’t let Matt Cassel’s three and a half quarters of not-horrible play fool you into thinking the Kansas City offense has hit some sort of stride. It hasn’t. Also, Brady Quinn is back this week — good news for anyone not wearing a Chiefs’ jersey on Sunday.

The Bengals sport a middling defense, anchored in large part by an aged secondary susceptible to speedy guys. Thankfully, the Chiefs don’t have many of those outside of Dexter McCluster, who isn’t going to burn anyone deep.

We’ve seen this movie before: An average defense looks spectacular against a Chiefs team scoring a whole 16 points per game, and turning over the pigskin more than anyone. Kansas City was able to avert disaster for most of Monday night’s match-up with the Steelers by going uber conservative and limiting Cassel’s throws. Eventually though, the Chiefs get down big, they throw downfield, and good things magically happen for the opposing defense.

Play your Stripey Bs.

Here are defenses I’d play over the Rams this week: Cowboys, Texans, Broncos, 49ers, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons. Cincy is my fifth-ranked defense for Week 11.

29 Comments

  • Bengals or Broncos D?

    • Very close, but go Cincy.

  • With rothlisburger out does that move Baltimore ahead of cinci?

    • Not for me, but it’s very close.

  • 10 Team PPR: Thoughts on Brandon Marshal ROS, with Cutler out this week & already having a handful of concussion throughout his career, is Marshall worth a trade? Our trade deadline is the 23rd, here is my team: Luck, Eli, Marshall, Wayne, Cruz, Dez, Amendola, Rice, AP, DMC, Thomas, Beanie, Gates, Vernon, Hou.

  • My league doesn’t penalize for yards allowed and you only lose -2 for points allowed over 30+. Should I hang on to and roll with the Pats? I know Luck will light them up, but they have the 3rd most turnovers this season and top 10 in my league. They also have the Jets and Dolphins the next 2 weeks. My only option would be the Cowboys.

    • Play the Cowboys over New England any way you can this week. I don’t love to own two defenses at once, but stashing the Patriots for a playoff run while benching them this week would be prudent.

  • How do you feel about ATL D this week?

    • Yeah, I like the Atlanta defense this week. I think they’re guaranteed a few sacks. Very high upside play.

      • Dallas or atl?

  • need to start 2 WR in 1 point PPR League: D. Moore, D. Bryant, T. Young, Torrey Smith, or TY Hilton? Also, should I pick up Danario Alexander or Josh Gordon in general and drop one of from the previous list? Thanks.

    • Dez and Moore. I think Danario will have a ton more opportunity, and Gordon has a nightmarish matchup this week.

  • Pitt or Cincy this week, if Cincy, do you see a big difference? Little concerned about Leftwich turning ball over, giving Ravens a short field. thanks

    • The Steelers are a top-11 option, I think. But the Bengals offer so much more upside here.

  • 10 Team PPR: Need a RB2 fill in because of DMC. Here are my options: Joique Bell, Jacquizz, Woodhead, Daniel Thomas, Ingram, Hunter, Ivory. Please rank.
    Thanks!

    • Thomas is the one out of this group. He’s getting 8-12 touches a game, and he plays a horrendous Bills rush defense.

  • Start 49rs or Bengals ?!

    Is it a good deal to trade 49rs for Broncos ?! I will play vs Broncos owner this week.

  • Yes, absolutely. But don’t be afraid to drop them if you need to fill a skill position.

    • I don’t think you can bench Marshall, even if Cutler sits. Campbell will still force feed him the pigskin. Denarius is in for a big week though.

      • would you play denarius over julio? julio may be limited. i just feel like denarius is in for a 20+ pt game…

  • I have Marshall, Julio, and Denarius at WR. which 2 makes better starts this week? If Cutler doesnt play, should I play Denarius Moore over Marshall? my Flex is Spiller.

  • Fitzgerald or Wallace with Ben likely out. And if McFadden is out Reese or McGahee?

    • I’d go Fitz and McGahee.

  • How do you feel about the Bucs D this week?

    • I don’t hate Tampa’s defense this week. But I think even the Panthers’ putrid attack can exploit such a horrid secondary.

  • Start 49rs or Bengals ?!

    Its a good deal to trade 49rs for Broncos ?! I will play vs Broncos owner this week.

    • I’d stay away from any and all D/ST trades. This week, start the Niners for sure. They get Jason Campbell.

  • worth stashing the Chargers D for there week 15/16 matchups with CAR and NYJ?

    • Yes, absolutely. But don’t be afraid to drop them if you need to fill a skill position.

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