Dreaming of Streaming: Week 10 November 9, 2015  |  Chet


 

 

If your fantasy defense got out of Week 9 with half a dozen fantasy points, you did well. Really well.

It was a terribly low scoring week for fake football defenses, as just three units — the Giants, Eagles and Jets — scored in the double digits. Only five defenses managed more than eight fantasy points. You likely didn’t win or lose your matchup because of defensive production.

All three defenses that posted double-digit fantasy points had one thing in common — something we seek in this space every week. The Giants, Eagles and Jets all capitalized on inaccurate passers who were forced into pass-first situations. It doesn’t always work out — nothing does, after all — but it’s  good process, as we saw with Jameis Winston, Matt Cassel and Blake Bortles making back-breaking mistakes that rewarded the opposing defense.

Kudos to you if you truly trusted the target-inaccurate-passers strategy and reaped the benefits.

 

Defense Week 9 streaming score Week 9 fantasy points Week 9 D/ST rank
Bengals 6 7 7th
Saints 5.5 1 19th
Eagles 5 12 3rd
Chargers 4.5 11 4th
Broncos 4.5 7 7th

 

  • It was, overall, a decent week for defenses with top-5 streaming scores. We had four top-7 defensive units, and, well, the Saints. Through nine weeks, defenses with top streaming scores are averaging 7.4 fantasy points.

 

Defense Week 10 opponent Week 10 streaming score
Panthers Titans 5.5
Bears Rams 5
Saints Washington 5
Ravens Jaguars 4.5
Broncos Chiefs 4.5

 

  • Chicago’s streaming score seems suspect at first glance. And second glance. Probably third glance too. Streaming scores against the Rams are skewed in large part by the Seahawks and Packers scoring 18 and 22 fantasy points, respectively, against St. Louis before the emergence of Todd Gurley as the entire Rams’ offense. Here are defensive scores against the Rams since the team dedicated itself to having everything run through their rookie runner: 4, 3, and 2. That’s what we call #notgood on Twitter. Nick Foles is just the sort of signal caller we like to target, but the Rams have snuffed out the fun. Foles is averaging a measly 28.4 drop backs per game since Gurley took over. Many of his throws are of the ultra safe variety (8.7 average depth of aimed throw). That creates a shaky floor and essentially no upside for defenses facing off against St. Louis. I would avoid the Bears this week.
  • The Saints continue to get the best defensive matchups imaginable. On a related note, they keep crapping the proverbial bed against some of the NFL’s most turnover prone offenses. Streaming scores only measure the strength of a matchup, not a team defense. There’s not much reason to think New Orleans can capitalize on prime matchups — they turned a possible pick-six into a 60-yard touchdown against the Titans — so perhaps it’s time to skip over the Saints. When you account for drops, throwaways, and spikes, Kirk Cousins is somehow more accurate than Aaron Rodgers. This is another streaming score that might be on the tricky side.
  • Baltimore’s defense has managed a whopping eight fantasy points over their past four contests. Opponents are slicing and dicing the Ravens through the air — we know that. They’re also tormenting the once-dominant Ravens’ defense on the ground. Jacksonville, for as much offensive success as they’ve had through nine weeks, is still a streaming target. Only two teams have given up more fantasy production to opposing defenses. Jacksonville D/ST opponents have scored touchdowns in three straight games, to go along with seven turnovers over that stretch. We like home defenses that are favored by Vegas. That’s what we have here. I don’t think there’s any way the ghost of the Baltimore defense can hold the Jaguars to less than 20 points in this one, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make the most of mistakes made by Blake Bortles and company. Only Andrew Luck is less accurate when accounting for spikes, throwaways, and dropped passes.

 

Defense Week 10 opponent Week 10 streaming score
Rams Bears 4
Titans Panthers 4
Buccaneers Cowboys 4
Bengals Texans 4
Steelers Browns 4
Raiders Vikings 4

 

  • I think we should take note of Oakland’s streaming score here. Their Week 10 usefulness doesn’t entirely hinge on the concussed Teddy Bridgewater’s status, as Mehddy isn’t exactly a threat to blow the doors off of any defense, especially on the road, especially as an underdog with the Vikings facing a pretty good run defense. Minnesota’s ultra-conservative offensive approach doesn’t leave much room for opposing defenses to rack up interceptions and fumbles — that’s the one drawback here if you’re targeting Oakland’s defense. The Raiders defense’s only two usable fantasy weeks have come at home (against the Broncos and Jets), leaving some hope that they could put up a nice line here. Minnesota’s approach just leaves so much to be desired when we’re considering streaming a defense.
  • The Panthers, even in the midst of their winning and banner-tearing ways, are turning over the football at a good clip. Carolina has committed nine turnovers over the past three games, as Cam Newton completes just 60.3 percent of his aimed throws — worse than Nick Foles, Matt Cassel, and Colin Kaepernick. Tennessee gets the Panthers at home this week, where they’ve notched 7, 7, 6, and 8 fantasy points in 2015. That’s hardly a week-winning output, but it’ll do in a pinch (or during a week in which there really aren’t that many fantastic streaming options). Tennessee’s injury woes in the secondary have me a little concerned here. I’d still streaming the Titans over the Raiders and Bears. Tennessee is averaging 1.9 takeaways per home contest. Only seven teams are better on their home turf.

 

Defense Week 10 opponent Week 10 streaming score
Cardinals Seahawks 3.5
Cowboys Buccaneers 3.5
Jets Bills 3.5
Packers Lions 3.5
Eagles Dolphins 3.5
Bills Jets 3.5
Patriots Giants 3
Chiefs Broncos 2.5
Dolphins Eagles 2.5
Washington Saints 2.5

 

  • The Dolphins, over their past four games not against AFC South (CFL South, if we’re being honest) opponents, have given up an average of 12 fantasy points to opposing defenses. Miami’s offense is constantly put into unenviable situations that make them one dimensional. I don’t think Ryan Tannehill is the sort of quarterback who can thrive when the threat of the running attack is taken away. Philadelphia is almost a full touchdown favorite here, and they’re at home. No team has recorded more takeaways during home games than the Eagles through nine weeks, as Chip Kelly’s defense is averaging three forced turnovers in those contests. Only the Giants and Panthers have picked off more passes than the Eagles. I really like Philly as a rare upside play with a solid floor against the floundering Dolphins.

 

6 Responses

  1. bill slu says:

    Rams or Broncos?

    I am thinking Broncos vs a crappy KC offense. But the KC D will be out for blood vs a Den team they should have beat in week 2. Thus, keeping the KC offense on the field more often.

    Cutler to Alshon scares me tho.

    but with Talib and Ware out, makes me wana start the Rams.

  2. Steve says:

    Am I crazy, or are the Packers in for a good game against the inept Lions? Especially coming off back-to-back losses and at home?

Leave a Reply

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