DraftDay Week 9 Picks
November 1, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Be sure to check out the Week 9 DFS CHEAT SHEET before locking in your lineups!
Everyone has heard daily fantasy players complain all week about how Jordy Nelson and/or Michael Floyd destroyed their lineup and cost them winnings. I’ll spare you the tears and how many of my lineups could have benefited from these “guarantees.” Fantasy football is a fickle mistress and you can’t be mad at yourself for using people you had good reason to believe would be a sure thing. Let’s turn those frowns upside down and check out these DraftDay plays for Week number 9.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Andrew Luck ($17,300)
Can’t stop, won’t stop, nuh-uh uh-uh. Luck has only had ONE game in which he hasn’t thrown 300 yards. He still threw 3 TDs that game. He’s got SIX games over 340 yards. He leads the league in yards. In touchdowns. In passing attempts. In terms of fantasy football he is completely matchup proof, so a road game against a very mediocre New York Giants defense is of no concern to us. Luck has weapons all over the field and even a running back grabbing them up out of the backfield. This is a must play in 50/50 lineups across the board.
Budweiser – Alex Smith ($11,750)
Smith had a perfect, conservative, productive day, but still managed to give fantasy owners a big ol’ middle finger. He completed 85% of his passes for 226, but still got less than 10 FP. Luckily for Alex if there’s one thing the Jets do well (there’s only one thing the Jets do well), it’s giving running backs a hard time to get going. NYJ is ranked 5th against the rush, but they’ve given up 22 passing TDs and have only gotten 1 interception; easily the worst in the league in both categories. Dare I say Alex Smith gets his first 300-yard game since last year’s Wild Card game, or his first 300-yarder in the regular season since Week 5 of 2012? Maybe. But is he guaranteed 2 TDs? Yes.
Natural Light – Robert Griffin III ($10,750)
Not sure I’ll ever be as excited about starting a $10k QB as I am about starting RGIII. I can disregard his rushing ability and just look at a quarterback with a plethora of healthy targets. Minnesota’s defense is 31st in the league, allowing nearly 400 total yards and 30 points/gm. While the young Vikings’ D is improving, there’s still a good opportunity for Bobert to grab up some fantasy points for a cheap price.
Arrogant Bastard – LeSean McCoy ($12,550)
With my main man Matt Forte on a bye, I suppose I’ll have to find someone else to pay big money for. Lucky for us, this big money guy is actually a few thousand dollars cheaper. Houston doesn’t have the worst rush defense (ranked 22nd), but Shady McCoy just had 97 total yards against possibly the best rush defense last week in Arizona. I’ve got an inkling that this will be the week our redraft brethren have been waiting all year for. Either on foot or through the air, LeSean will be in the end zone.
Budweiser – Ronnie Hillman ($11,450)
In the three weeks since taking over for Montee Ball, he has broken 100 total yards each week, averaging 19.2 FP/gm. The Patriots are allowing 134 yards/gm, ranking them 30th in the league. Hillman had 2 TDs vultured from him by Juwan Thompson last week, but I wouldn’t look into that too much; Ronnie has 9 Red Zone rushes and 3 RZ targets this season, so they’re obviously not afraid to use him when they’re close to the goal line.
Natural Light – Bobby Rainey ($7,850)
Doug Martin is in a walking boot, so Bobby will get the call and 15-20 touches this weekend against a Browns defense that has been trampled by everyone not named Darren McFadden. But everyone has been able to stop McFadden this year. Rainey has been running hard, accumulating 28 broken tackles already even though he’s played in a limited role. The last game he had with more than 11 carries, he ran for 144 yards against the Rams racking up 20.4 FP. Buy-in on this gift of a price.
Arrogant Bastard – AJ Green ($13,050)
He’s returning this week to a great matchup against a Jaguars defense giving up the 4th most pass yds/gm and the most 20+ yard pass plays (36) this season. The Bengals passing offense hasn’t looked very scary without AJ in the lineup, as Andy Dalton hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the past 9 quarters. Big Red will be excited to see his favorite target back in the game, and even if Green is only at “80%,” he’s still better than most of the rest of the league. If the news of “limited snap count” continues to grow or if he’s limited in practices late in the week, simply plug Mohamed Sanu in this spot and watch him rake in the points instead.
Budweiser – Allen Robinson ($9,300)
On the other end of the matchup is Allen Robinson, who has led the Jaguars in targets (63) on the season and is averaging 9 of them a game since Blake Bortles has taken over behind Center. The Bengals D has been giving up lots and lots of yards this year, ranking 30th in the league, and has allowed an average of 32 points over the last 4 games. If Robinson is going to be the apple of Bortles’ eye when he’s not throwing interceptions, then this will be a good opportunity.
I like Andrew Hawkins ($9,200) for nearly the same price and some of the same reasons. Outside of a miserable week 6, he has 9 or more targets in every game and he’s facing a Tampa Bay defense giving up the most passing yards in the league and the most points allowed. Despite his first TD of the year last week, he is anything but a scoring threat, which is the only reason I may go with Robinson (6’3”) over Baby Hawk (5’7”).
Natural Light – Donte Moncrief ($7,400)
If you paid his measly price last week, you were rewarded with a 7-113-1 24.3 FP game on a whopping 12 targets. The good news? He is still very, very cheap this week! The bad news? Reggie Wayne might be returning. That matters not here, as Donte looks as if he hopped over Hakeem Nicks in the depth chart, and might have even stepped on his neck in the process. Andrew Luck leads the league in pass attempts and if Moncrief is one of his first, second, or third looks, you will benefit.
Arrogant Bastard – Rob Gronkowski ($13,850)
Two very dominant tight ends are facing off in this high scoring Patriots-Broncos game and even though Julius Thomas is due for a big game, I still have to pay a little more and take Gronk. Tom Brady simply doesn’t have the same weapons as Peyton Manning does. He’s averaged ~10 targets and a TD the last 4 weeks. Ride the hot hand if you have the salary.
Budweiser – Travis Kelce ($7,350)
A high ceiling guy with a floor that won’t ruin your lineups, Kelce is a good bet to go off against a Jets defense, allowing 15.4 FP/gm against tight ends through the first 8 weeks. Despite his surprising lack of routes ran, he is still 10th in the league among TEs in yards (352) and YPC (12.6) for any player over ten receptions. A touchdown this weekend would be great, but 5 receptions and 65 yards is a perfectly fine floor out of your TE slot.
Natural Light – Vernon Davis ($7,150)
Vernon Davis returns to the field in a home game after a bye-week to rest up from back spasms that have been flaring up for weeks. He has scored as many as 20 FP this year (healthy) and as low as 2 FP (unhealthy). Jim Harbaugh has said that Vernon is no longer feeling the lingering effects of his injury and is “Good to go” this week against the Rams. A healthy Vernon Davis is worth this price and then some, get him in your lineup and watch him find the end zone for the first time since Week 1.
Arrogant Bastard – Chiefs ($7,650)
This is a little more than I’d like to pay for a defense who hasn’t been averaging a lot of FP/gm so far, but they are at home against a Jets team that has committed 18 turnovers already. Michael Vick will be starting this week in place of Geno Smith, which probably won’t be much of an upgrade as Vick turned the ball over 3 times all by himself in 3 quarters of work against the Bills last week.
Budweiser – Colts ($5,850)
Last week Indianapolis had allowed 214 yards/gm through the air and accumulated 21 sacks on the year. They were coming off a game in which their opponent mustered 135 total yards and were generally looking like a team that could get to the QB and force him to dump the ball off. Then they allowed a 522 yard, 6 touchdown game to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Oh boy. I’m willing to write off last week’s absolute collapse and leave it in the rearview mirror. The New York Giants and Eli Manning have faced three teams ranked in the top-10 of Football Outsiders’ Defensive Efficiency Rating: Detroit, Arizona and Philadelphia. Here is his average statline from those three games: 197-1-1.3 and took 3.3 sacks per game. Why is that of any importance? The Colts were ranked #9 before last week’s debacle. Everyone craps the bed once in a while, right? Let’s give Indy the benefit of the doubt.
Natural Light – 49ers ($5,600)
A St Louis Rams offense ranked 26th in points scored just lost possibly their best player in LT Jake Long, and their best WR in Brian Quick. I don’t need much more to put a decent defense against them.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Andrew Luck
QB Alex Smith
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Bobby Rainey
WR Andrew Hawkins
WR Donte Moncrief
TE Travis Kelce
FLEX Ronnie Hillman
FLEX Allen Robinson
I got to handcuff both of my QBs with cheap high-upside guys. I’m pretty happy with this in 50/50, feel like I’ve got a high floor here. Will probably look for more guys who are more adept at scoring TDs in any GPP games.
If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”