DraftDay Week 7 Picks
October 17, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Check out The Fake Football Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Did anyone else watch last Sunday night’s game with a big, powerful, awful frown on their face? Because that’s what I was doing between 8:30 and 11:30. I watched as my daily fantasy lineups went from promising to pitiful. Thanks a lot, Odell Beckham/Jeremy Maclin/Andre Williams!! Hey, can’t win ‘em all. Just most. Let’s get back to winning most.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Peyton Manning ($17,700)
There’s nothing to get too in depth about here. Peyton only needs 3 TDs on Sunday night against San Francisco to surpass Brett Favre for the most passing scores in NFL history. Only once this season has he not thrown at least 3 of them (Week 3 – 2 TDs). 49ers are only allowing 207.3 yards/gm through the air and an all-around solid defense, but if you’re willing to fade Manning breaking the record in prime time, you are a better man than me.
Budweiser – Carson Palmer ($13,100)
With one healthy week of play and another week of practices with no flare ups in his shoulder, Carson can safely be plugged into lineups again. Couldn’t come at a better time as he travels to Oakland to face the team he was traded from just a couple off-seasons ago. I don’t think this will be a good match-up because of some revenge hyperbole; I think this is a good match-up because the Raiders defense is a stinky pile of mess. QBs are leaving games against the silver and black with a 107.6 passer rating and a 70.2% completion rate. Arizona shouldn’t have much trouble protecting his shoulder, as the Oakland pass rush is getting sacks on just 3.21% of plays, good for 30th in the league.
Natural Light – Kirk Cousins ($12,250)
This will probably be the last time you get to play Cousins with any sort of fantasy relevance for quite a while. Either because RGIII will be on his way back this time next week or because he’s about to throw a couple more interceptions and Washington will boot him to the sideline. But while he’s still out there he’s gonna be throwing the ball nearly 40 times and with the amount of playmakers around him with a propensity for big plays and touchdowns, we can excuse the crappy throws every once in a while. 300-2-2 line is just fine by me.
Arrogant Bastard – Marshawn Lynch ($14,000)
If you started Beast Mode last week you were probably left with a bitter taste in your mouth, as his 11 touches were a little closer to Kitty Mode. Don’t expect more of the same here as the Rams are going to have to contend against a whole lot of Marshawn Lynch. We’ve seen recently that the squeaky wheel gets the oil and the complaints about his underuse aren’t even coming from his own mouth — they’re coming from his Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator. St Louis is allowing 139 rush yards/gm and has only 1 sack from their pass rush, Seattle should be able to stay out of long yardage situations. Each of the St Louis’ opponents this far have stayed on the ground with good results, running the rock nearly 52% of the time.
Budweiser – Ben Tate ($10,450)
So much for a crowded backfield! Terrance West was a healthy scratch last week, leaving all the running duties to Ben Tate and Isiah Crowell. While the rookie outrushed Ben in yards, he also out-fumbled him and out-dropped him, which will guarantee he will be the second man fed in this offense. With 47 carries in the two games he’s been back from injury, Tate looks to have plenty of opportunities to take it to a Jacksonville defense giving up an average of 23 fp/gm to opposing running back crews.
Natural Light – Antone Smith ($6,950)
The guy’s got 50+ yard in almost every game, yet he’s only touched the ball 23 times. Sounds like a tournament play if I’ve ever heard one. He’s averaging about 10 yards/carry and 22 yards/reception against a Baltimore defense that has allowed 16 passing plays over 25 yards, tied for 2nd worst in the league. Plug this guy in a couple lineups and see if he can’t win a contest on his own.
Arrogant Bastard – Demaryius Thomas ($15,250)
Whelp, it’s gonna be hard to guarantee multiple touchdown passes from a quarterback and not suggest using his #1 WR, right? So here he is. If you’re starting Thomas or Manning, you’ve pretty much got to start the other. Look no further than Week 2 of this year if you want to see proof of a WR1 gobbling up red zone targets and turning them into scores against San Fran’s D; Brandon Marshall received three RZ targets and turned each one of them into a TD. Manning likes both Demaryius and Julius Thomas near the goal line, but he seems to be feeding DT a whole crap-ton recently — something to the tune of 350 yards and 28 targets in the last two weeks. You have just got to use this handcuff in 50/50 and H2H games.
Budweiser – Larry Fitzgerald ($10,050)/Michael Floyd ($10,400)
Carson Palmer came out in the beginning of the game and looked like a man who didn’t want to chuck it too far past the line of scrimmage to start things off. Until near the end of the first quarter when he connected with Michael Floyd for an awesome 20-yard catch that was Floyd’s first TD of the year. He never quite opened it up, but had a penchant for finding both of his WRs in the intermediate of the field. Floyd got almost all of his targets in the first half when things were still close while Fitzy received his 6 targets sprinkled throughout the game. Either guy would be a good play, but I see Arizona shutting Oakland down this week, and if this game script is any indication, Larry should get himself plenty of targets. I’d lean his way.
Natural Light – Davante Adams ($7,050)
Carolina started the season looking like a defense to be afraid of, allowing only 21 points combined through the first two weeks. The following four weeks they’ve allowed a low of 24 and an average of 34. They are now 3rd worst in Opp completion % (69%) even though Josh McCown (Week 1) and Matt Stafford (Week 2) only completed 62%/56%, respectively. In other words, QBs have recently been picking them apart very effectively. Davante is starting to emerge in Aaron Rodgers’ offense just as they square off against some CBs that have been burned a whole lot over the past month. Jarrett Boykin might play this week, but he wasn’t getting looked at even when he was healthy, so Adams will be the 3rd option in an offense that could easily break 35 points.
Arrogant Bastard – Jordan Cameron ($9,550)
The Browns tight end finally found the end zone last week in what was maybe his first fully healthy start of the year. He is rewarded with a loose Jacksonville defense that is more than adept at providing opposing offenses with more than enough chances to rack up yards through the air. Cleveland probably won’t need to spread the field too much this week, which bodes well for check downs for both the tight end and their receivers. Adding even more value to possible targets for Jordan is the lack of targets to wide out Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins has been somewhat fazed out of this offense, catching 3 receptions two weeks ago and catching 0 on only 2 targets last week. Cameron can reap the benefits of Hoyer’s short yardage looks.
Budweiser – Jordan Reed ($8,750)
So much for some sort of Jordan Reed/Niles Paul tight end controversy (if that’s even a thing); Reed is obviously the TE that Kirk Cousins is looking for, and he’s the one on the field the majority of the time. Niles Paul was only looked at twice, while Jordan came back from his hamstring injury and was immediately targeted 11 times, scooping 8 of them for 92 yards. In a game where the Jaguars looked immensely awful, they still got 336 yards — 91 of them going to TE Clay Harbor against this Titans defense. Start Reed with confidence.
Natural Light – Jermaine Gresham ($6,500)
The AJ Green targets have got to go somewhere, and last week quite a few of them went to Mr. Stone Hands here who turned 7 of them into 6 catches and 68 yards. Gresham isn’t much of a threat to run down the seam and catch a 55-yarder, but another game very similar to his last won’t be a surprise as this Sunday’s game could end up being a shootout with Indianapolis.
Arrogant Bastard – Cleveland ($5,800)
The Browns have multiple sacks in all but one game this year. They’ve also had an interception in all but one week, and they’ll look to get a little of each as they head in to Jacksonville to play against rookie Blake Bortles and an offensive line that has allowed a league leading 27(!) sacks this far. Bortles hasn’t looked all that bad, but he does have 7 interceptions in his 4 starts and that offensive line (ranked 31st in pass protection according to Football Outsiders’ numbers) is absolutely doing him no favors. To make matters worse, this running game has only topped 85 yards once (105–Week 3). Let other people pay skill-player-type money for the Seahawks and feel safe with this easy matchup.
Budweiser –Chicago ($4,250)
Miami’s two-headed rushing attack ended a little after 2 quarters when Moreno went down after 7 touches, having torn his ACL. He’ll miss the rest of the season and the Dolphins will certainly miss someone to lead/split carries with Lamar Miller. Instead, Miami will have to lean on Tannehill even more against a Bears’ offense that may jump out to an early lead with their high-powered (and finally healthy) skill players. Even with a solid O-Line in front of him, Tannie has been erratic. If he has to throw 40+ passes, the Bears could be feeding off multiple interceptions.
Natural Light – Washington ($3,700)
Washington’s defense has been pretty well bowled over as of late, but the last 4 QBs they’ve faced have been Nick Foles, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, and Carson Palmer. These aren’t exactly elite guys, but they’re all firmly 2 tiers (Jake Locker) or 3 tiers (Charlie Whitehurst) above whichever Tennessee quarterback ends up starting this Sunday. The last time a bad O-Line and a weak QB came into DC, this defense had TEN sacks. I’m not saying that will happen again, but I say 5 sacks won’t be out of the question. Look for the home crowd to breathe some desperately needed life into this fledgling pass rush.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Peyton Manning
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Ben Tate
RB Justin Forsett
WR Demaryius Thomas
WR Davante Adams
TE Jermaine Gresham
FLEX Sammy Watkins
FLEX Antone Smith
I like having the extra money to get Justin Forsett on my team. Atlanta’s allowing a whole lot of rushing yards this year and Forsett gained 111 yards on the ground despite his QB throwing 5 TDs last week. I’ll switch my lineups around to make sure I can avoid one of these guys having a bad day and messing up my money-making.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”