DraftDay Week 6 Picks
October 11, 2014 | Justin Edwards
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With my baseball team (and even my baseball playoff picks) 6 feet under, I can now sigh a breath of relief as I have absolutely no vested interest in any other sport! (except maybe rooting for a Cardinals loss) I fully expect my DraftDay arrow to keep pointing up and I’m gonna share with you the dudes who are gonna make it happen for me.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at,
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Matt Ryan ($15,400)
I expect this game to end up in a sort of shootout. Vegas has it as the highest scoring game of the week with an over/under set at 54. Atlanta won’t be able to keep playing catch up behind a shaky offensive line and Steven Jackson averaging 48 yards/game. The Falcons will definitely be airing the ball out, and they’ll be doing it at home where Matt Ryan has thrown 6 TDs 0 INTs and 734 yards in two games this season.
Budweiser – Eli Manning ($13,950)
While on pace for a nearly identical amount of passing yards as last year, Eli has flipped the script on his Cmp% and TD/INT ratios. 57.5% to 66.3% and 18/27 to 11/5 which is helping him to 20.1 FP/GM. Philadelphia has given up 274 yards/game this far to go along with a league worst 13 passing TDs allowed, which amounts to 21.2 FP/GM for QBs. If you split Manning’s Week 4 and Week 5 right down the middle, I think you’ll find the floor of his Week 6 output: 250-3-0.
Natural Light – Blake Bortles ($10,550)
Blake has 6 friggin interceptions through only 3 games, a stat that is absolutely terrible in real football (IRLNFL), but really doesn’t hurt us all that much in fantasy. QB salaries on Draft Day are rising and you’re not going to be purchasing a starting QB for less than $10k anymore. So if you want anyone cheap you might have to deal with an interception or two. If Brian Hoyer can lead a comeback after being down 28-3 against this defense while hitting the end zone 3 times, I have faith that Bortles can connect for at least 2 touchdowns. A 225-2-1 stat line will be enough to justify this price, I don’t think that’s farfetched at all.
Arrogant Bastard – Matt Forte ($15,850)
This matchup is just about as juicy as it gets. Atlanta is giving up the most FP/GM to running backs so far this year, through short passes and on the ground. They’ve given up 9 TDs on the ground (worst in the league) and 31 passes to RBs (fifth worst). I would be starting any running back here against Atlanta for almost any price, but it just so happens to be Forte lining up against them, who just so happens to average 8+ targets a game. Whether or not he finally gets into the end zone on a run, he will be well worth this price.
Budweiser – Andre Williams ($7,950)
We’ve got a couple cheap options that could see major playing time on Sunday. Andre Williams is the first of the two, and possibly the best value out of any skill player this week. Rashad Jennings won’t be playing, leaving Andre to take most (or close to ALL) of the Giants’ 32.6 rushing attempts/game against a weak Eagles’ D. If you extrapolate 32.6 rushing attempts by Eagles’ 4.2 YPC allowed that is 137 yards. But let’s not get crazy, we’ll settle with 100 yards and a TD all day long, right?
Natural Light – Bishop Sankey ($7,100)
Shonn Greene seems a little hobbled by his hamstring and might miss Week 6 altogether. Even if he is in the game, Sankey will certainly have double-digit touches against a Jacksonville team giving up the 2nd most FP/gm to opposing RBs. I’m willing to gamble a small amount of salary for the chance to cash in on this possible breakout game.
Arrogant Bastard – Jeremy Maclin ($13,400)
Philly’s fast action offense is having a little trouble clearing up some room up front in the run game, which only bodes well for their WRs. Jeremy Maclin hasn’t had less than 10 targets all season long (the only WR in the league who can say that) and he only went without a TD in one week. Maclin is obviously the apple of Nick Foles’ eye, and when they fall behind early Jeremy will be there to snatch no less than 7 of those passes. A broken coverage 50-yard TD is on the horizon.
Budweiser – DeSean Jackson ($8,950)
This guy likes to take us on a roller coaster ride every single season and as frustrating as it is, it’s also sort of fun. FP/GM so far this year in chronological order: 13.30, 2.90, 22.70, 1.90, 26.70. It would seem as if this will be a down week, judging by how the season is going so far, but I’m willing to ride the hot hand here. He had no problem chomping up 157 yards against arguably the league’s best defense on Monday night, so I don’t see him having a problem catching a long one or two against Arizona. The Cardinals are allowing 300+ yards/gm through the air and they might have to start a banged up Patrick Peterson.
Natural Light – Odell Beckham Jr ($6,950)
I hate to pick on the Eagles’ so much, but I’m going to anyway. OBJ started his first NFL game Sunday and came out of it with a 4-44-1 line, a good sign of things to come. He should see an increase in snaps against the team giving up the most FP/gm to opposing WRs, which is also a good sign of things to come in the immediate future. OBJ is cheaper than a regular BJ, so get him in your lineup and save some scrilla.
Arrogant Bastard – Julius Thomas ($13,100)
It’s not as if this guy needs any help scoring touchdowns (as he’s already scored 7 of them in only four games so far), but the Jets are a nice group of guys, willing to get him into the end zone. That is, if the last 3 weeks are any indication of New York’s love of opposing tight ends. TEs have 5 of them in that 3 week span, adding 183 yards to mark an average of 21.3 FP/gm. That would easily cover this price, and that’s only if you think Julius can’t beat that ‘average’ mark.
Budweiser – Owen Daniels ($7,200)
A nice 5-70 line last week against a Colts’ D that struggles to cover the tight end, but this week’s matchup against Tampa Bay really isn’t much worse. The Bucs have given up 79 or more yards to TEs 4/5 weeks, and have given up 18+ FP in each of those 4 games. Flacco seems to be looking at Owen as much as any of the other receivers on the team, and I’d imagine he’ll be getting the majority of goal line looks.
Natural Light – Jordan Reed ($6,150)
Arizona is another team that is very generous to the TE position. Jordan Reed looks to be suiting back up for the first time since Week 1, and he can benefit from a soft defense for his return. Keep an eye on his status, as he had a limited practice Thursday, but if he’s starting you can’t pass up this price.
Arrogant Bastard – Broncos ($6,300)
I’m following this laughingstock of a Geno Smith/Michael Vick offense wherever they go, and you should too. They combined to throw for 12/31 and 74 friggin yards against the Chargers last week. Granted San Diego has a good pass defense, but those are powder puff numbers. Denver will have no problem scoring against the Jets, so look for Geno to have to “air it out” which will lead to interceptions and general hilarity.
Budweiser – Packers ($6,200)
When ol’ Tannehill absorbs at least one sack in a game, his cmp% dips all the way down to 56.1%, which would rank him 39th in the league among QBs with more than 30 passing attempts. Miami has a bottom half O-Line in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus, so I’d assume this Packers team averaging 2.4 sacks/gm could get to him and rattle his cage.
Natural Light – Titans ($4,000)
As I mentioned earlier in the article, I’m pretty set on using Blake Bortles against this defense. I’m not one to advocate using a defense against your QB in the same lineup, but this might be a rare exception. The Jaguars will score some points in this game, but not without the Titans getting to Blake a few times and forcing a turnover or two. We’re not going to need many fantasy points to justify a $4k salary. About 6 points, to be exact.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Matt Ryan
QB Blake Bortles
RB Matt Forte
RB Andre Williams
WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
TE Owen Daniels
FLEX Bishop Sankey
FLEX DeSean Jackson
I think this is the first lineup of the year where I really like everyone in it. Which makes me nervous, but that’s healthy. I’ll be switching it up here and there so I don’t get screwed when one of the guys goose eggs on me.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”