DraftDay Week 5 Picks
October 4, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Here is our Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite
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We’re past the quarter-mark of the season now guys and gals (sort of sad, really)! After a semi-disastrous Week 1, my DraftDay bankroll has been taking a slow but steady climb into positivity. Came close to sweeping all my 50/50 games, but still haven’t hit that big payout in a GPP. Let’s continue the grind.
Three tiers, or levels, of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Drew Brees ($16,900)
What a terrible game against the Cowboys, right? You might be surprised to know that Brees actually finished with a 340-2-1 stat line while completing 32/44. That’s an impressive line for most of the league, but it’s not what you’d expect out of a guy you’re paying $16k+ for. The Saints have looked like a completely different team this year. Where are all the 70 yard broken coverage touchdowns? Where are the 4 TD no turnover games? What this team needs is a slumpbuster. What this team needs is a game inside the Super Dome against a bottom-5 defense that will allow Mr. Brees to have a 300-4-0 line and get this team back on its feet in the NFC South. Sorry TB, you’re a slumpbuster.
Budweiser – Russell Wilson ($14,050)
Consistency. The first three weeks of his season he has thrown for 2 TDs and accumulated 190+ yards through the air. We’re hoping he breaks that mold against a Washington defense that ranks in the bottom half in rushing and passing (25th & 20th). Russell was showing off his legs in Week 3, picking up 40 yards, but I’m betting he gets even more than that this week. Seems like a prime opportunity to throw for 250+ while scoring 3 TDs with his arm or with his feet.
Natural Light – Austin Davis ($10,150)
We now know that the most accurate passer in the league (72.5%) will be the Rams starting QB for the rest of the season. That’s a good thing for us for at least one week, as he’ll take the reins against an Eagles pass defense that is allowing 20 FP/game to opposing quarter backs. Signal callers have scored 2 or 3 touchdowns each of the first 4 weeks and Austin just scored 3 of them to go with 327 yards through the air against Philadelphia’s division-mate Dallas. It could develop into the perfect storm for the youngster.
Arrogant Bastard – Le’Veon Bell ($14,100)
Pittsburgh wins the “who gets to demoralize the Jaguars” sweepstakes this week! And the front runner in this competition is Le’Veon, who hasn’t had a single game under 100 total yards yet this season. He’s averaging 20.5 FP/game on DraftDay, which would already pay for this price, but I expect him to beat that out easily. He’s got only 1 TD this year, but he’s also got 91 touches, so the dam has got to break some time. Jacksonville is 27th against the run and 32nd against the pass. Bell can go 15-80-1 on the ground and 4-40-0 in the air as a floor. Get him in my lineups.
Budweiser – Doug Martin ($9,400)
After missing some time due to his injured knee, our little Muscle Hamster came out last week and showed us that Bobby Rainey was indeed NOT going to take over as Tampa Bay’s RB1. His numbers were certainly buoyed up by his TD run, but that should be a good thing, not a bad one as he out-touched Bobby in the red zone 3-to-1. The Saints have a soft defense, allowing 123 yards/game on the ground and letting running backs break arm tackles with ease. Dougie Fresh saw 56% of the offensive stats in his first game back. I would expect more playing time now that he’s healthier. I could see him rushing 18 times for 70 yards and a TD. Maybe sprinkle in 3 catches and 20 more yards.
Natural Light – Ben Tate ($6,700)
This is so cheap for a starting running back there is almost no reason to give you reasons justifying it. Returning from a week 1 injury after weeks to rest his weary leg isn’t all rainbows and butterflies though. There are a couple of rookies in Isaiah Crowell ($8,100) and Terrance West ($10,050) that look to gobble up yards and scores from the former backup. But still, there should be upwards of 15 totes against a fluffy Tennessee in store for Tate, and we still aren’t sure if he’ll be used in the pass game. One of the rookies might vulture a touchdown, but I’m not too worried about it as this is as low of a price you’ll find for a guy who is guaranteed touches.
Arrogant Bastard – A.J. Green ($13,050)
It feels good typing this name as a Bengals fan. But don’t get twisted, A.J. is ready to prove why he deserves to be in the Top-3 wide receivers in the game. Last year, in one of the most boring games of the year, Cincinnati exposed the Patriots and kept them to 6 points while only scoring 13 themselves. This year is a much different story. Andy Dalton will pound this weak defense with healthy doses of Gio and Jeremy Hill while keeping his eyes open for Green as his downfield option. With a healthy toe intact, AJ Green can turn 9 targets into a 7-110-1 line against this bumbling New England defense with relative ease.
Budweiser – Andrew Hawkins ($9,950)
What do you do with a WR who gets double-digit targets as an underneath threat with the team’s TE beat up? You start him. And what if the defense they’re playing against is in the bottom-half of the league in yards allowed? You start him. And what if he costs less than 28 other receivers in the league? You get the idea.
Natural Light – Louis Murphy Jr. ($7,950)
It looks like Mike Evans will miss at least two weeks after going down in the game against the Steelers on Sunday. This opens the door for Louis, who was targeted 11 times even though he was playing behind Evans. New Orleans pass D has been awful this season, so if Mike Glennon looks at Murphy like he did last week, expect him to approach 100 yards receiving again.
Arrogant Bastard – Delanie Walker ($9,950)
Charlie Whitehurst stepped in last week and continued where Jake Locker dropped off in at least one facet of the game; look towards Delanie Walker. He now has 32 targets on the year, which would rank him third behind Jimmy Graham and Martellus Bennett. 6/32 targets have come in the red zone, giving him 3 TDs and tying him with Jimmy for 2nd in total fantasy points this year. Whether Tennessee can move the ball against this Cleveland defense or not, Walker will still get his far share of chances to snag some passes.
Budweiser – Garrett Graham ($6,000)
The Cowboys looked surprising last week against a Saints offense that I thought would bulldoze them. The Texans offense is far from being the Saints offense, so I’d want to avoid them pretty much at all cost. Except for one thing; Dallas cannot seem to cover tight ends worth a crap. Through 4 games, they’re allowing 17+ FP/game to opposing TEs, allowing 100+ yards to them in each week except for the opener when Vernon Davis only got 44 yards, but scored 2 TDs. Garrett giving us a 3-42-1 line sure sounds decent enough to pay up $6k!
Natural Light – Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,850)
If you don’t want to mess with Louis Murphy Jr (or even if you do), this is just too cheap to ignore. Mike Evans is leaving 27 targets and 3 red zone targets out there for the taking, and they’re gonna have to go somewhere. Mike Glennon already showed us that he likes the thought of checking it down to AS-J, targeting him 7 times with Evans in the lineup. I could see him getting 10 targets this week, which would be an awfully juicy line for a guy that costs just above the bare minimum.
Arrogant Bastard – Chargers ($6,800)
Geno Smith has a 60% completion rate this year even though he completed nearly 83% in week 1, he’s got 5 INTs to go along with 4 TDs, and he’s fumbled the ball 4 times. This is exactly the sort of signal caller you want to match up against. The Chargers already have 10 sacks and 6 forced fumbles through the first 4 weeks; expect both of those to go up come Sunday afternoon.
Budweiser – Bengals ($6,600)
As with the game above, aiming for the quarterback having the most problems is a solid way to choose your #DFS defense. Cincinnati is leading the league thus far in allowing a 56.9 passer rating to opposing QBs. Tom Brady’s passer rating is 79.1, or 33rd in the NFL, among anyone who’s thrown at least 37 passes. The rushing game isn’t picking up the slack, ranking 23rd with 97.5 yards/game. This Bengals defense isn’t going to be the one to get things going, expect another showing very much like the one you just saw on Monday Night Football.
Natural Light – Bears ($5,150)
Chicago more or less got their asses handed to them last week against the Packers, actually scoring in the negatives in fantasy points by the end of the game. The Panthers have been playing efficient football, winning the TO battle with a +3 differential, but they aren’t nearly as high-powered as Green Bay. Carolina is averaging 18.2 points/ game which ranks them 28th in the league. Sometimes when you’re trying to save salary on your defense you’re just looking for a team that won’t give up many points.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Russell Wilson
QB Austin Davis
RB Le’Veon Bell
RB Doug Martin
WR Andrew Hawkins
WR AJ Green
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
FLEX Ben Tate
FLEX Larry Donnell
I had the extra $$ to go ahead and hop on the Larry Donnell bandwagon, so I’ll take it. I’ll use this as my base lineup and make sure to switch it up where I can so I don’t lose all my matchups just because some putz gave me a goose egg.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”