Divisional Round DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
January 10, 2017 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to The Fake Football Divisional Round FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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LeGarrette Blount had a bit of a scare with an illness, but he was taken off of the injury report and is good to go for this weekend’s likely slaughter of the Houston Texans.
Blount’s teammate Malcolm Mitchell may not be so lucky. He is listed as questionable. With a likely easy win ahead of them, he could very well be rested as Brady has plenty of receiving options available. I’m leaning towards doubtful, but keep an eye on the inactives list. UPDATE: Adam Schefter reports that Mitchell will sit.
Danny Amendola, who has been out for the past several weeks, looks likely to suit up. If you want to take a flier on him in a GPP, be my guest, but I won’t be anywhere close to using him. The Vegas line looks likely to lead to a game script where we see NE jump out to a big lead and a second half where they are running down the clock with Blount, White, and Lewis. If I’m playing a NE receiver in a tournament, it’s Michael Floyd, hands down.
Dallas Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith should play this week after sitting out Week 17 with an MCL sprain. This bodes well for Zeke Elliott, and solidifies an already incredible offensive line.
James Starks is out. Expect Christine Michael and Ty Montgomery to split the load pretty evenly.
Fellow Packer Jordy Nelson is out against Dallas. Rodgers didn’t seem to miss his top WR, finding Adams and Cobb for a combined 4 scores last week. Jeff Janis is likely to play after being listed as questionable. He will pick up some of the targets with Nelson out.
Ladarius Green is likely out against the Chiefs on Sunday. He has still not recovered from a concussion he got a couple of weeks ago. In his stead, Jesse James should take over most TE duties and is a candidate for DFS tournaments with TD potential. He scored against the Chiefs in their matchup earlier this season. UPDATE: Green is indeed out.
Spencer Ware will play, but look for Charcandrick West to get a decent load with his solid performances of late. I’m not targeting either.
Justin Houston will play as well after missing a couple games to end the season. In 5 games this year, he picked up 4 sacks and a forced fumble. With bad weather in the forecast, Houston and the KC defense should feast.
C.J. Prosise is questionable against the Falcons. With Rawls fully healthy and expecting at least 20-25 touches, Prosise is a non-factor. UPDATE: Prosise is OUT.
The only game weather will truly be a factor in is Pittsburgh at Kansas City. The Kansas City area is expecting an ice storm. Forecasts were so bad that the NFL pushed the game back from a 12pm CST to 7:20 CST. That’s right, folks: Sunday Night Football! The freezing rain is supposed to have stopped in the morning, but the warning is until midnight, so it could still be nasty at kickoff. Regardless, it will rain, and it will be cold. Winds should be tolerable, however, which is good. This has all the signs of a defensive battle (so, of course, there will be 60 points scored!). UPDATE: The field is a mess outside the tackles. It should be raining on and off throughout the game.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling. One of the things I want to do this weekend is really focus on some of the chalk plays and make sure I get them into my lineup. I want to go with the crowd this weekend and not try to get cute at all. I’m more than happy to have all 40% owned guys in my cash game lineup for this short slate. There’s no QB that has a higher floor this weekend than Tom Brady. I don’t think he has a great deal of upside but he’s a pretty sure bet for 225 yards and 2 TD. That should play just fine in a cash game. I don’t see a chalkier combo at RB than Elliott/Rawls so I’m going to jump on that. I suppose that Bell could be highly owned but his price is going to scare some people away. I’ll gladly take my high floor with Elliott and my super matchup with Rawls (who looked amazing last weekend). I don’t understand the price at all on Dez Bryant but I’m going to take full advantage of it. The GB defense was not good against the Giants last weekend and Dez should have no issue getting open; and I can assure you that he’s not dropping those passes if they come his way. Davante Adams might not be the flavor of the week for the Packers but he’s been the most consistent WR for them all season. Consistency is sexy in a cash game. CJF is a very reliable target at TE and he’s about the only player that makes Brock Osweiler look good. You really can’t beat his price, and at that price he doesn’t need a big game to hit his cash game value. With some of the more expensive plays I have in this lineup I did have to take come chances in my Flex but Eli Rogers is the #2 WR in an offense that should have to pass more this weekend and Christine Michael is the only true halfback on the Packers. At some point they are going to have to get him some carries and I think that week is this week. I don’t mess around with defense in a cash game so I’m going with the best team/matchup on the board in the Patriots.
I think that the chalk lineup in a GPP this weekend is going to involved Brady/Rodgers/Ryan, Rawls/high end RB2, Cobb/value WR, Kelce/Graham, and the Pats defense. As you can see from my lineups, I’ve avoided most of those players. I do love a Ryan/Julio stack because I can see people being scared off by Richard Sherman. Don’t be one of those people. The last time the Falcons played the Seahawks, Jones ran 34% of his snaps from the slot (his highest percentage of the season) and he went 4-90-1 away from Sherman. ATL isn’t stupid and they are going to employ the same strategy this weekend. I also really love the price/matchup combination of Dak/Dez. If Elliott is going to be the chalk at RB, that means that Dak and Dez are going to go overlooked. The Packers secondary is garbage and Dez is going to feast. Randall Cobb is the flavor of the week for the Packers, but it’s Davante Adams that is the guy to own from this WR corps. I think that Devonta Freeman is going to be the overlooked elite RB, so he’s in both of my lineups. I have a feeling that Michael Floyd is in for a (relatively) big week as he continues to build a relationship with Tom Brady. At $7400, you really can’t go wrong with him (in theory). It’s hard to go contrarian on a four game slate that has seven of the best teams in football (and Houston), so we have to find any edge we can get and roll with it. These lineups address my expected concerns about ownership, but they will be updated on the weekend when more info about potential ownership is divulged.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
I usually don’t play too many cash games in the playoffs, but if I do, I want Aaron Rodgers, who gets a nice matchup against the Cowboys in decent weather and despite Jordy Nelson’s absence, I believe Davante Adams, Jared Cook and Randall Cobb should be able to give him enough support to put up good numbers. The Cowboys will slow the game down, which could hurt Rodgers’ upside, but I also think they will be able to score and keep Rodgers throwing on their weak pass defense. Thomas Rawls showed me something last week and I believe he’ll bring that intensity to this game. Dion Lewis has been the Patriots preferred running back in the first half of the last three games and it appears they were getting him ready for the playoffs. I expect him to see a lot of work as the Texans run defense should push the Patriots to check down to their running backs more often. Doug Baldwin gets a nice matchup against the Falcons slot defense and I expect the Seahawks will need to throw plenty in this game. Randall Cobb showed last week that he is healthy and he will also need to make up for the loss of Jordy Nelson. The Cowboys really have just the one top receiver in Bryant and he will likely be needed this week, which also happens to come against the worst pass defense in the playoffs. The Cowboys are poor defensively against tight ends and Cook will see a bump in work with Nelson out. The Patriots will throw to beat the Texans, and Edelman will be a big part of that. They reduced his role toward the end of the season, but it appears that was just to rest him up for the playoffs. The weather in KC doesn’t look great this weekend and if it happens to get really bad, there could be plenty of D/ST points in this one. The Steelers have also been playing better defense over the last half of the season and they’re cheap!
I think Matt Ryan has the highest upside of the QBs going this weekend. He gets to play in his home dome and Seattle has been giving up big pass plays, with the most 20+ yard pass plays in the league after Week 5, which happens to be when Earl Thomas was injured. Le’Veon Bell has the highest upside of all the RBs without a doubt, which makes him a good GPP play even if he is highly owned. I’m again going with Lewis due to his ability and price. Mohamed Sanu and Tevin Coleman are my two Falcons players to go with Ryan. Of course I’d like Julio, but his price is too restrictive. Sanu and Coleman are risky, but I expect this offense to be on point and spread the ball around like they usually do. Edelman, Cobb and Cook are all top plays for me this week and their prices are good enough to push them into many of my lineups. The Patriots have the best matchup for their D/St and the most expensive. Osweiler will have trouble in Foxboro.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. Thanks, and have fun!!
Note: Links are live!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|