2012 Fantasy Football

Ξ 45 comments

Chet’s Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

posted by Chet

These last couple of weeks are going to be awesome for many reasons, but I’m really excited to see how many records are broken.  The biggest is Adrian Peterson’s quest to break Eric Dickerson’s 28 year old record of 2,105 yards rushing in a single season (how old am I!? Why must we age!). He needs 294 yards rushing in the next two games to break it. That sounds nearly impossible for mortal man, but cyborg Peterson has averaged 164 yards a game over the last eight weeks. Of course he faces the Houston Texans who have been one of the best rush defenses in the league this season. Also of course, Vick Ballard was able to top 100 yards on them last week and Peterson, as I alluded to earlier, is no mortal man. He destroyed the Seattle run defense in Seattle who have given up just 57.4 yards rushing per game, 3.3 yards per carry and 1 touchdown in their five home games excluding Peterson’s. Instead of those paltry numbers, Peterson carried the ball 17 times for 182 yards and two touchdowns.  Can he do that against Houston, in Houston? He no doubt can, but we’ll have to wait to see if he does. In week 17 he faces a Green Bay defense he just lit up for 210 yards, so he could have an average game for him in Houston and still be set up pretty well.

Calvin Johnson is almost assured of breaking Jerry Rice’s record for most receiving yards in a season barring injury. He needs just 182 yards in his next two games to top Rice’s 1995 record of 1,848 yards. He’s averaging 119 yards per game on the season and over the last seven games is averaging 147 yards per game.  I’d take any bets on him breaking the record. The Falcons and Bears pass defenses are both good and will put up a fight, but with Burleson, Young Sr. and Broyles out, Johnson will continue to see an inordinate amount of targets.

Michael Strahan’s record of 22.5 sacks in a season is also in jeopardy. Both Aldon Smith and J.J. Watt are sitting on 19.5 sacks for the season. Watt faces the Vikings and the Colts who are ranked 14th and 24th in sacks allowed and Smith faces the Seahawks and Cardinals who are ranked 8th and 32nd. Smith probably has the edge with a final game against the Cardinals who have no offensive line, but it should be a close race and fun to watch!

Jason Witten could easily break Tony Gonzalez’s record for tight end receptions in a season this week. Gonzo’s record is 102 and Witten has 97 receptions with two games left versus the Saints and Redskins who are 28th and 32nd in receptions allowed to tight ends irrespectively. This one is a done deal save a spleen explosion or the Mayans being off by a few days.

Randall Cobb is also going for a pretty prestigious record of becoming the first player in NFL history to have over 1,000 receiving yards and 1,ooo kick return yards in a season. He needs 108 receiving yards and just 36 kick return yards to hit that mark, so yeah, he’ll do that.

So this should be a fun two weeks of football, even in the dreaded week 17 doldrums. Good luck this week and ask me stuff in the comments and I will answer with stuff that hopefully help you win something or other.


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Chet

Chet has written for the N.Y. Times: Fifth Down Blog, Rotoworld, Fanduel Insider and Razzball. He is extremely/obsessively active on Twitter and likes cottage cheese.
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45 Comments

  • Nicks or Grant for Flex PPR? 12 teams

  • also,diff league: need 3 from: Julio, Cecil, AJ Green, DX, Garcon, TY Hilton and Victor Cruz. Non ppr. Thanks!

    • Julio, Green, Cruz

  • need 1 from Leshoure or ballard. 2 from Decker,Garcon,Austin, Lloyd,DX and a flex from any of those. non ppr thanks!

    • Ballard, Austin, Garcon

  • Steven Jackson, Cecil Shorts, or Eric Decker?

    2 flex spots open…

    • Shorts and Jackson for me

  • jets or SD D?
    Maclin, Britt or Stevie…pick 2?

    • SD, Maclin, Stevie

  • Bryce Brown, Montell Owens, or Dejuan Harris for my last flex spot? I know you have Owens rated highest, but its close. Does Brown still present better upside? Thanks.

    • Just not sure how much work he’ll get and he’s burned us 2 games in a row.

  • Pls rank for flex in W16:

    DuJuan Harris, DHB, Bryce Brown, Torrey Smith, Jackie Battle, Montell Owens

    • only need top 3

    • Smith, Battle, Harris

  • Nervous about starting SF d this week, I can plug in Green Bay.. And I’m also starting Lynch and hate playing against my own d. What say you?

    Also, Maclin or T Smith? Thanks for your help this year!

    • I’d give GB a shot. Leaning Maclin.

  • What up Chet! Thanks for the advice all year. You guys helped get me to the Championship. Q: Starting Shorts as WR3. Got T Rich in the flex, but Im likin’ Miles’s match-up. Start Miles, or Wilson in the flex over T Rich? Thanks!

    • If it’s PPR I’d feel ok with going Miles.

  • Tough decision for title week.
    In a PPR I can start 3 of these 4.
    Cobb, Dez, Amendola, Decker.
    I can’t put one at flex because I would have to bench either Martin, Moreno or Sproles. Good problem to have I guess

    • I’d bench Decker. Yep, looks pretty good.

  • Moreno or cj2k? Nicks or Austin?

    • Moreno and Austin for me.

  • Hey Chet -

    QB – Talk me down here. I have Big Ben, Kaep, and R. Wilson but don’t like any of their matchups or weather. Am I overthinking and crazy for considering picking up Henne/Tannehilll or Foles and starting 1 while dropping/benching my current QB’s?

    D/ST – Seattle (with your help) has taken me places this year… to the Superbowl even. I’m considering going with Green Bay though.

    Overall am I getting too crazy just because of the weather (potential rain in Seattle, Cold and Snowy in Pitt) and the matchups, and should I just stick with Big Ben and SEA or should I look for a decent performance from a Sunny Henne/Tannehill or even Foles and also swap SEA for GB?

    Thanks!
    Justin

    • Tough call. I’d still lean Ben, especially if Adam Jones can’t go. It’s hard for me to sit Seattle at home. They bring it in Seattle.

  • Does your Seattle DST ranking include the news of Jason Jones on IR, Browner suspended and the possibility of Sherman also missing the game due to suspension? SD DST is available to me in my championship and I’m giving serious thought to making the switch despite SEA’s strong play this year.

    • it looks like Sherman will play and they are tough at home. I’m leaning them, but the Chargers probably have a little more upside, but I could see Rivers getting his defense into bad spots.

  • wow all my choices are neck and neck for you! PPR Garcon or Shorts? My Opp has RG3 so,

    Also Texans or Pats?

    THANKS!

    • I’d lean Shorts and Patriots

  • WR issues for Super Bowl. Started season with Harvin and Jordy. Options now are Garcon, Nicks, Alexander, and just added Amendola. Leaning Garcon and Nicks but I see you have Amendola ranked higher. Both with very nice matchups. Why do you go Amendola higher? Thanks.

    • Sorry… Standard league

    • Nicks seems to be hurting still and Eli continues to be inconsistent. Amendola looks to be back and with a great matchup.

  • I have AP, T rich, j charles, and v ballard…I can start 3 in PPR league….i am really thinking about starting ballard over T rich because of their matchups..i have been riding T rich but if he didnt make it into the endzone his point totals over the past few weeks would be horrendous..i think Denver shuts him down…thoughts?

    • I agree about the matchup. He gets enough work that I think it’s hard to keep him from scoring, but Ballard probably has a higher ceiling. Go with your gut.

  • QB: Big Ben, Freeman, or Wilson
    WR: Britt, or Maclin
    TE: Pitta, or Rudolph

    • Ben, Maclin and Pitta bread

  • You have been a great help all season through your articles and your twitter account. I figured Id ask this question even after reading your rankings because I have 4 top RB’s in a PPR championship and its pain to decide each week. Pick 2. Forte, Morris, Ridley,or Richardson. Tough matchups this week and Im having trouble deciding. Thanks for all your help Chet.

    • In ppr I’m leaning forte and Morris. I like Ridley quite a bit as well but ppr has me lean Forte.

  • Standard league
    Pick 1: DX, D Wilson, Lance Moore. or Hank off waiver
    Thank you!

    • Would lean Moore unless Bradshaw sits.

  • @Doc: two questions. First, ppr flex help, who do you like between decker, amendola and McCoy? Second, same ppr league, bottom of the barrel TE options – Clark, Watson, celek or Lewis?

    Thanks for the help all season.

    • Amendola and Celek. Close with Lewis but I like Celeks matchup.

  • Nice article, it should be a fun 2 weeks.
    WDIS- standard scoring- pick 2 from: Ballard, Sproles, James Jones, Torrey Smith , DX, or DWilliams. Thanks!

    • DeAngelo and Sproles. Ballard is close, but I think the other 2 have more upside.

      • Do you still feel the same about this even after the injury updates about JStew probable and Torrey Smith probable?

        @Vcapri
        December 21, 2012
        1:28:59 am
        Nice article, it should be a fun 2 weeks.
        WDIS- standard scoring- pick 2 from: Ballard, Sproles, James Jones, Torrey Smith , DX, or DWilliams. Thanks!

        Reply

        Chet
        December 21, 2012
        1:34:30 am
        DeAngelo and Sproles. Ballard is close, but I think the other 2 have more upside.

      • If Stew suits up I’d go with Ballard for sure.

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