Buy Low/Sell High: Week 9
November 3, 2016 | Matt Terelle
Welcome to our weekly edition of Buy Low/Sell High. The skilled fantasy owner should be using trades to his or her advantage on a weekly basis. One way to do this is to acquire players coming off of slow performances who you think have a good chance at bouncing back. At the same time, you should be looking to deal away players coming off of big performances that you think were a fluke and unlikely to continue throughout the season. At this point of the season, I usually like to try to consolidate some bench depth and go after a big time star who has been underperforming. Let’s get going with whom we should be looking to buy and sell for Week 9!
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Spencer Ware (RB) – Kansas City Chiefs
Ware was on my radar before the unfortunate Jamaal Charles injury news, but now he’s a full-on buy who I am aggressively targeting in my leagues. With Charles being placed on injured reserve, Ware should be the clear-cut lead back going forward. The only issue here, and the main reason for a buy-low window, is that Ware suffered a concussion in Week 8 and is looking unlikely to be ready for Week 9’s action. The concussion scare could possibly have lowered Ware’s value enough that you can get him for less than RB1 prices, which is what he will be the rest of the year. The ideal situation would be for Charcandrick West to have a big game against the Jaguars. That could be enough to get the Ware owner in your league worried. I don’t consider West as much of a threat to Ware when he’s fully healthy. West was barely involved earlier in the year, even when Charles was sidelined and there’s no reason to think that would change in the second half. Acquiring Ware could be a league-winning move at this point of the year.
Stefon Diggs (WR) – Minnesota Vikings
Expect the Vikings offense to undergo an overhaul under Pat Shurmur following the resignation of previous offensive coordinator Norv Turner. I expect Diggs to be one of the primary beneficiaries of the coordinator change. Turner was using Diggs to stretch the field, which was not exactly working considering that is not one of Sam Bradford’s strengths. Shurmur likes to run a west coast offense, which leans on short throws, something which is much better suited to Bradford’s skill set. Look for Diggs to be peppered with targets, which will raise his weekly floor, especially in PPR leagues. Diggs is probably being valued as a mid-range WR3 by his owner at this point of the season, but he should become a strong WR2 going forward.
Jimmy Graham (TE) – Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks’ skill players remain some of my favorite players to target as buy lows. Russell Wilson has appeared in this column a few times as has Doug Baldwin. Graham is another interesting name who could be attainable for less than his worth. He’s coming off a disappointing game against his former team, the Saints. That was a game in which basically everyone thought he was going to get one last slam dunk in the Superdome in a classic #revengegame narrative. It didn’t come to pass as Graham posted just three catches for 34 yards. Last week aside, Graham has emerged as Russell Wilson’s favorite target as the season has gone on. On the year, Graham has 46 targets, good for second on the team and an 18% share of the pie. He leads the team with 41 targets since Week 3 while also being tied for the team lead with six red zone targets. He only has one touchdown this season, so you can expect some positive regression in that category going forward. If you have been streaming tight end this season, Graham could be your TE1 in the latter part of the year.
DeMarco Murray (RB) – Tennessee Titans
To be clear, Murray is putting together a fantastic season, but the injury-prone back may be starting to show some signs of the wheels coming off. He injured his toe last Thursday night, but was able to return to action. As of now it appears his owners avoided a serious injury, but it remains to be seen just how long Murray is able to hold up. At the halfway point of the season, Murray already has 160 carries and 28 receptions. That puts him on pace for close to 400 touches for the season. With the running back position being in the state it is in, there’s a good chance you could get a huge haul for Murray. Don’t go giving Murray away for anything, but it would be worth seeing how he’s valued around the league.
Frank Gore (RB) – Indianapolis Colts
Gore has been solid this year and has managed to score a receiving touchdown in two straight weeks. That being said, his receiving score in Week 8 salvaged what would have been a disappointing fantasy day otherwise as he carried the ball just nine times for 37 yards and had just two catches. The Colts had to abandon the run against the Chiefs after Kansas City built up a big lead against them. With the Colts defense as bad as it has been, expect this to be the case more often as the season grinds on. Furthermore, banking on running backs to score receiving touchdowns on a regular basis is not something I normally like to do. Gore has a brutal matchup against a Packers run defense that is one of the best in the league before going on bye in Week 10. Now is the time to sell the veteran back as his value could be at a season high.
Rob Kelley (RB) – Washington Redskins
Kelley filled in for the injured Matt Jones in Week 8, piling up 87 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in London. If you snagged Kelley off waivers last week, now’s the time to cash in on him. The Redskins have a brutal string of run defenses coming up, including Green Bay, Dallas, Carolina, and Arizona. Add in the ambiguity of the backfield workload when Jones returns to action and keeping Kelley around can be a risky move. At best this could develop into a three-way running back committee with Jones and Kelley splitting early down work while Chris Thompson works as the third-down back. Target the running back-desperate owner in your league and see what happens.
Thanks for reading, be sure to reach out in the comments section below or @supermt on Twitter with your trade questions or comments.