2012 Fantasy Football

Ξ 25 comments

Buy Low/Sell High: Week 6

posted by Asher Molk

Hello Fake Footballers! My name is Asher Molk, and I am really looking forward to helping you win your fake football leagues via smart and savvy trading. “Buying Low” and “Selling High” is quite a simple economic principal: give away commodities while their perceived value is greater than their actual value, and try to acquire commodities while their perceived value is lower than their actual value. In other words, trade bad players after good games for good players after bad games! Here are a few trends and nuggets of wisdom I encourage you to follow whilst trading:

-Smart owners look beyond the box score. The naïve owner will look at Shonn Greene’s Week One fantasy score and see 94 yards and a touchdown- a very solid 15.4 fantasy points! The smart owner is able to dig deeper and see that he averaged under 3.5 yards per carry, fumbled twice, didn’t catch a pass, and carried the ball 27 times because the Jets were up 20 at halftime and 27 by the 4th quarter. Are the Jets likely to be up by that many points most games to give enough carries to a below-averagely talented runner? The answer is no. Take a look at what he has done since then. If this sounds time-consuming, don’t fret- I am here to do the work for you and help you look beyond the box score!

-A major trend in my articles (and hopefully on your fantasy teams) will be getting rid of averagely-talented players: plodding running backs who don’t make anyone miss or contribute in the passing game (see Turner, Michael), or wide receivers who offer nothing after the catch (see Bess, Davone), etc. More importantly, you will be trying to acquire explosive, dynamic talents who are capable of changing the game every time they touch the ball (see Harvin, Percy). TALENT IS MOST IMPORTANT!

-Trading away two decent/good players for one great player is almost always a great idea. Usually, the person getting the one better player wins the deal.

-From Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL on Twitter, give him a follow) of Rotoworld.com: Think in terms of draft value and ADP when you trade. If you are thinking of trading away Lesean McCoy for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Vernon Davis, think about if you would trade a top 5 pick for a 4th and 5th rounder. This practice should help give clarity to your trades!

-NEVER lead with your best or final trade offer! Instead, start small, even offer deals they probably won’t accept to start with. This doesn’t mean offer Mason Crosby for Lesean McCoy, but you never know what a person may say yes to, it’s often quite surprising. If you lead with your best offer, you have nowhere to go but down. Start by being a little optimistic…

-If there are quality players on your waiver wire that you want but you do not know whom to drop, let go of your kicker and/or defense for that player. You can always make a trade to make roster space, or make a game-time decision on whom you want to drop. A lot can happen in a week, and you don’t want to miss out on the next Victor Cruz or Antonio Brown just because you think Sebastian Janikowski will average 1 more point per game than Garrett Hartley.

-Target owners who are close to the bottom of the standings – they are probably the most willing to do a desperation move in order to shake up their team. Also, make sure to target players the owner is likely frustrated with.

 

This week, I’ve decided to do a little bit of “theme-grouping” for the buy lows- lots of ‘em I like right now. Let me know what you think! Give me a follow and ask questions on Twitter: @AsherMolk

 

BUY LOW

 

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI, and Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS- Here we have two wide receivers coming off of injuries. Obviously Garcon missed more time, but both have been relatively quiet save for one big game each. Not counting their “big games”, they have combined for 10 catches for a mere 113 yards in 5 games- not exactly the WR2 production we have expected from both of them. You know I am a believer in talent, and these guys have it in spades as the best receiver on their respective teams. RGIII seems ok from his concussion scare, and Vick is showing signs of settling down. I think these guys can be had for a bargain and pay nice dividends.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE, Antonio Gates, TE, SD, and Jimmy Graham, TE, NO- This trio of tight ends were taken as the top 3 guys at their position in many drafts- top 4-5 at worst. Gates has been on this list before, and I’m here to tell you I’m still buying. He looks just fine on the field, and was a bad offensive PI call away from a very solid game. Gronkowski has been scoring TDs, but has cleared over 75 yards receiving just once, and has had dud games two of the past three weeks. Graham has also been scoring touchdowns, but hasn’t gotten the yardage totals that his owners have been used to. I’m slightly concerned about his ankle injury, but the Saints have a bye week and it doesn’t appear to be of the dreaded “high ankle” variety. Why am I not concerned about these tight ends? Three reasons: they all have above average quarterbacks (Graham and Gronk have elite ones), they are all at worst the second option on every passing play, and they are all the top options in the red zone. Buy, buy, buy.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN, and Matt Forte, RB, CHI- These players have three things in common: they are both coming off of considerate lower leg injuries, both are elite players at their position, and both have NOT been scoring touchdowns. Since Week One, these players have a combined two 100-yard rushing performances and a grand total of 0 touchdowns. Week-to-week, touchdowns are by far the hardest statistic to predict- they ebb and flow. The scores have been ebbing for a bit too long now, and these trends tend to reverse themselves. Most importantly, they are the centerpieces of their offenses and both look close to 100% healthy. Fantasy owners tend to get frustrated when their players aren’t scoring touchdowns, so this is the perfect time to buy on these RB1s.

 

SELL HIGH

 

Robert Meachem, WR, SD- After an offseason of hope and “puff pieces” from coach Norv Turner, Meachem was projected to be a 65-1000-7 type of guy by many- or at worst a decent WR3. But “should or could” and “actually is/are” rarely ever meet, as evidenced by Meachem’s performances from Weeks 1-4. In those weeks, he combined for 6 catches for 92 yards, AKA waiver wire fodder. But a first half explosion against arguably the NFL’s worst defense made for a solid 3-67-2 statline, and brought back memories of Meachem’s days as a productive deep threat in New Orleans. Don’t buy it for a second. Rivers and Meachem clearly haven’t been on the same page the entire year, and one fluky game doesn’t change that. Floyd, Gates, and Mathews are the primary receivers on this team, and with talented youngster Vincent Brown due back soon, Meachem may somehow become less productive. I’d sell him for almost anything.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG- Bradshaw has been on the “sell high” list before, but he is here again to show you that I am still selling. He looked pretty good last week, but keep in mind that he was running against the 26th ranked run defense that lost its nose tackle and best linebacker in the middle of the game. I’m not a believer in “injury prone”, but there is a difference between random injuries and players wearing down due to chronic conditions. Bradshaw has had a plethora of surgery on his feet and ankles- I’m not trusting him to hold up for another 10+ games with the talented David Wilson slowly getting back into the mix. He still has value, but throw him onto the end of your trading fishing rod and see what you can reel in for him.

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF- I will never stop emphasizing the following- we want explosive playmakers on our team who can make people miss and break a game open in one play. Crabtree does not come close to fitting that bill. As a slant/short route specialist in a game-managed run heavy offense, its more of a fluke when he catches a long touchdown. In fact, it was his first touchdown and first game over 76 yards the entire season. I simply do not see the upside when analyzing his talent and offensive situation. Vernon Davis is the best passing option on this team. I think Crabtree can be an okay WR3, more so in PPR leagues, but there isn’t much to hope for here.

 

 

Asher Molk

Loves: Buying Low and Selling High, the "Two Minute Countdown" on NFL RedZone, Julio Jones, and gummy candy.

Hates: Selecting Defenses and Kickers before the last two rounds and Skip Bayless. Also, Skip Bayless and Skip Bayless.

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25 Comments

  • in a ppr league:

    flex spot: F.Davis(was)
    V.Ballard(ind)

    • Ballard.

  • I got this offer in my PPR, PPRush league. Give Gonzalez and Bradshaw. Get Graham and Welker. What do you think? I like this trade, but it would hamstring me at running back next week as 2/3 of my remaining RB (Charles and Mathews) are on BYEs in week 7. The only way this trade works for me is if Best comes off of the PUP list and plays in week 7. Here’s my squad right now.
    QB Stafford
    WR Harvin, Lloyd, Cribbs(it’s also a ret. yrd. league)
    RB Lynch, Charles
    TE Gonzalez
    Q/W/R/T Carson Palmer
    BN Mathews, Bradshaw, Best, G Jennings, E Sanders, Pettigrew

    Thanks.

    • Very interesting team and situation. I don’t have a ton of experience in points per rush leagues to be honest, but I would be totally fine with the trade you are doing. Its not a slam-dunk, but I think its worth it. I’d say it comes down to this- if you have a great record and can maybe afford a loss, then maybe do it. If you are in the middle or bottom of the standings, I say you either need to get another RB to fill in that week or just stand pat.

  • Avaiable players I think I can get Gronk, White, AJ green, Vernon Davis..

    • Love that idea. I would be trying to sell Leshoure. All those guys are great targets.

  • I have Rice, McCoy, Martin, Leshoure, and Ballard @ Wr Marshall, Harvin, D. Thomas, and Stevie Johnson..I. Think I can package Stevie and a running back For a better WR what. Running back do I get rid of?

  • Trade Ridley for forte? Non ppr

    • Close, but probably not.

  • Got offered Aaron Rodgers and BenJarvus Green-Ellis for Mike Vick and Stevan Ridley. Should I pull the trigger? Ridley is a backup for me because I have Ray Rice and MJD.

    • In that case, I’d pull the trigger.

  • Sorry for posting a bunch. I have greg jennings on my bench too

  • 12 team league, standard points, 2rb, 3wr, 2flex

  • Would you trade reggie bush and steve johnson for mcfadden? Ive got colston floyd rice and lafell, so I think this could help mybtean a lot (assuming mcfadden can get it goin)

    • Its close. Depends on how many WRs you start, but Sidney Rice and Lafell arent viable starters. If Steve Johnson is your WR3 starter, I’d stay put. I’ve come around on Reggie Bush this year.

  • Who should I use as flex this week Nate Washington or DHB? 12 team nonppr

  • I’m thinking about packaging Vick Ballard with Reggie Wayne or Percy Harvin for either AJ green or Cruz. I was also thinking of packaging him with Bradshaw for a RB. What receiver trade do you like and is that better than the RB trade?

    • I don’t see the upside in trading away guys like Wayne and Harvin for Green or Cruz. They MAY be better, but those guys are pretty close. Harvin may in fact be the best out of all of them. I recommend you package him with Bradshaw to an RB-needy team. Don’t trade away Wayne or Harvin.

  • Thanks. 10 team league – QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, DEF (no flex). His team is sooo bad, that it’s hard to formulate a trade like Murray & Ponder for Stafford & a RB because other than Gore he doesn’t have anyone. I could offer LeShoure and Romo for Stafford & Benson and then toss Benson on our IR and pick up another FA RB like Best or something.

    My team:
    QB: Romo / Ponder
    RB: McCoy, T. Rich, LeShoure, Murray
    WR: Harvin, Bowe, D. Moore, L. Moore, Britt
    TE: Graham / Chandler (bye pickup)
    His:
    
QB: Brady / Stafford

    RB: Gore, Tate, Pierre Thomas, Benson(IR)
    
WR: Welker, DJax, N. Washington, Burleson, L. Robinson
    TE: Finley / Cook


    • I think you hit the nail on the head. I’d be totally fine with that trade, and you have the depth to pull it off. See if he does that trade and go get Best.

    • Thanks Asher. Although, the more I stare at their ROS schedules, the more I question whether Stafford is much of an upgrade over Romo at all. I assume Stafford we’ll be in more shootouts, but Romo’s schedule is pretty good.

  • Asher, I am getting offered Doug Martin for Andrew Luck. My QB is Ryan. My RBs are Foster, Murray, Ballard, Jennings, Hillis. I am currently 4-1.

    Though I like Doug Martin, I think Blount will steal all goal line carries. Personally love Luck as my QB2. Is it reasonable enough of me to think that the Falcons could start shutting it down during fantasy playoffs (if they stay hot)? In that case, I will have Luck who could be a top 5 QB to fill in. Thoughts? Thanks man.

    • I really like Luck as well. But I see no reason the Falcons would shut it down toward the fantasy playoffs…they would have to be close to undefeated to do that, and even then it would be shaky. I don’t think they are good enough to only have 2 losses by Week 15. My advice would be not to worry at all about it. Back to the trade- I think you should do it. RB depth is what wins fantasy leagues, and looks like you need a bit more of it. Martin may lose goal line carries, but he is still good for 15 touches per game I think. If you are feeling daring, you could see what a combination of Murray and Luck will get you. But I would be more than fine with dealing Luck for Martin. Even if Martin ends up as only flex value, you need the RB depth.

  • Asher, thoughts on buying low on Stafford. I’ve currently got Romo & Ponder. The worst team in my league has Brady & Stafford. Brady is a 3rd round keeper, but Stafford might be available. League is 6pt TDs, 1pt 25 yards and bonuses at 250(2), 300(4), 350(6).

    • I’d be for it. Just depends on what you would have to give up. Any preliminary thoughts? Also, what does the rest of your team and starter settings look like?

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