2013 Fantasy Football

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Buy Low, Sell High: Post Week Four

posted by Asher Molk

Hello Fake Footballers! Asher Molk here, and I’m back for another wonderful year of helping you win your fake football leagues via smart and savvy trading. “Buying Low” and “Selling High” is quite a simple economic principal: give away commodities while their perceived value is greater than their actual value, and try to acquire commodities while their perceived value is lower than their actual value. In other words, trade bad players after good games for good players after bad games! Here are a few trends and nuggets of wisdom I encourage you to follow whilst trading:

-Look beyond the box score! Investigate why a mediocrely talented player did so well, or why a superstar did so poorly. Then ask yourself- are the scenarios that caused those outcomes likely to continue on a game-to-game basis? What is the long-term impact here? Statistics CAN LIE, so think long-term.

-A major trend in my articles (and hopefully on your fantasy teams) will be getting rid of averagely-talented players: plodding running backs who don’t make anyone miss or contribute in the passing game (see Green-Ellis, BenJarvus), or wide receivers who offer nothing after the catch (see Hartline, Brian), etc. More importantly, you will be trying to acquire explosive, dynamic talents who are capable of changing the game every time they touch the ball (see Spiller, C.J.). TALENT IS MOST IMPORTANT!

-Trading away two decent/good players for one great player is almost always a great idea. Usually, the person getting the one better player wins the deal.

-From Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL on Twitter, give him a follow) of Rotoworld.com: Think in terms of draft value and ADP when you trade. If you are thinking of trading away Lesean McCoy for Darren McFadden and Tony Gonzalez, think about if you would trade a top 5 pick for a 4th and 6th rounder. This practice should help give clarity to your trades!

-NEVER lead with your best or final trade offer! Instead, start small, even offer deals they probably won’t accept to start with. This doesn’t mean offer Mason Crosby for Jamaal Charles, but you never know what a person may say yes to, it’s often quite surprising. If you lead with your best offer, you have nowhere to go but down. Start by being a little optimistic…

-If there are quality players on your waiver wire that you want but you do not know whom to drop, let go of your kicker and/or defense for that player. You can always make a trade to make roster space, or make a game-time decision on whom you want to drop. A lot can happen in a week, and you don’t want to miss out on the next Victor Cruz or Alfred Morris just because you think Sebastian Janikowski will average 1 more point per game than Garrett Hartley.

-Target owners who are close to the bottom of the standings – they are probably the most willing to do a desperation move in order to shake up their team. Also, make sure to target players the owner is likely frustrated with.

 

BUY LOW

 

Desean Jackson, WR, PHI- After bursting out of the gate as the best-scoring fantasy WR for the first two weeks, Jackson has come back to Earth with a combined 5 catches for 96 scoreless yards in his past two games. I see many grumblings of people wishing they had “sold high” after the first two weeks, but I think a simple readjustment of expectations should ease D-Jax owners. After Week Two, many thought he was a top-five WR for the rest of the way- a big conclusion to draw from such a small sample size. Instead, think of him as a very good WR2, with some obvious bust games coming because he is still mostly a deep threat who defenses will focus on because he is the Eagles’ only receiving threat. Don’t trade for him expecting him to be on par with the Julio Jones’ and AJ Greens’ of the world. But I still consider him an every-week difference maker who owners may already be questioning.

 

Jason Witten, TE, DAL- This one is mostly for PPR leaguers. Similar to Tony Gonzalez and Marques Colston, we know who Jason Witten is at this stage of his career. We know what statistics and style of play we will get from them- there is no huge change coming. For example, Witten owners may be disappointed that he hasn’t scored since Week One. Newsflash: Jason Witten doesn’t usually score touchdowns- he’s scored more than 5 just once since the start of the 2008 season. You draft him with the expectation of 90+ catches, 950-1090 yards and a handful of scores. People wrote him off last year after his slow start, and he finished as the TE on many championship PPR teams. Miles Austin’s looming absence only makes things more similar to 2012, and will force Tony Romo to look to ol’ reliable number 82 during the instances where Dez can’t beat bracket coverage.

 

Ray Rice, RB, BAL- It has been an absolutely dreadful start for RBs not named McCoy, Charles, Forte, Bush and Peterson. Players taken in the top two rounds such as Spiller, Richardson, Rice, Wilson, Ridley, and Jackson have headlined the “2013 All-Bust Team” so far. After receiving a paltry 25 carries in his first two games, Rice nearly flatlined owners when he pulled up lame while holding his leg. Upon his return, he “rewarded” owners with a catchless 5 carries for 17 scoreless yards. The good news? He played the vast majority of the snaps and emerged no worse for wear. The Ravens simply have no choice but to force-feed Rice the rock. As demonstrated by their trade for Eugene Monroe, they know reinforcing the offensive line and getting the run game going are absolutely vital to their offensive success. I bet you could get Ray Rice incredibly cheap right now, and I’d still consider him a top-12 RB for the rest of the season.

 

 

SELL HIGH

 

Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT- I have to preface this “sell high” by saying that I think Le’Veon Bell has at least borderline RB2 value the rest of the year, and imploring you not to trade him away ASAP for bye-week depth. But I do think this could be his highest scoring fantasy day of the 2013 season, all things considered. Bell is a very technically sound running back with quick feet and excellent pass-game chops, but he is NOT an explosive runner who can create his own space. When you are not that type of runner, you need your offensive line to make space for you. How is the Steelers’ offensive line doing? They just traded for Levi Brown. Think about that for just a second. I’ll wait. “In shambles” doesn’t begin to describe what’s going on with the big uglies up from in Pittsburgh, and without good blocking I don’t see Bell having any semblance of consistency or efficiency. He carries plenty of value due to his volume, but see if you can flip him for Ray Rice or in a deal with Trent Richardson.

 

Nate Washington, WR, TEN- Nate Washington has made some fantasy owners very happy in the last few weeks: you go in expecting some lumps of coal, and you emerge with an absolute box-score diamond. He always seems to make an outstanding play or two every few games, but has always struggled for consistency, especially now competing with Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright in a ball-control offense. With noodle-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over for an injured Jake Locker and the Titans facing the defenses of the Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers the next three weeks, Washington is going to struggle to put up WR3 numbers.

 

Jerome Simpson, WR, MIN- Almost everyone has had that type of ex-girlfriend/boyfriend: Incredible charm and good-looks attracted you to them, only to find that they are a vindictive succubus. But after you break up, they start showing signs of coming around and you think “Man, she/he has really changed! I’ll give them another shot.” Invariably, your trust gets violated once again. Jerome Simpson is the fantasy football example of this special brand of ex: a fast, athletic wideout who literally lands flips over defenders into the end-zone and seems capable of putting up chunk yardage at will. After a truly terrible 2012, maybe he’s “really changed” after putting up 7 catches for 124+ yards in half of his games so far this year. I’m here to save you some heartbreak: don’t trust him again! This is who Jerome Simpson is: 2-3 games of huge production, 10+ of utter disappointment. It simply can’t continue with either trigger-shy Christian Ponder or arm strength-deficient Matt Cassel throwing him the ball on a team with Adrian Peterson and Greg Jennings. He IS NOT a WR3 solution, no matter how charming he may seem.

 

Keep buying low: David Wilson, Trent Richardson, Steve Smith

 

Keep selling high: Owen Daniels, Brian Hartline, Steve Johnson, Eddie Royal, DeAngelo Williams, Sidney Rice

 

Asher Molk

Loves: Buying Low and Selling High, the "Two Minute Countdown" on NFL RedZone, Julio Jones, and gummy candy.

Hates: Selecting Defenses and Kickers before the last two rounds and Skip Bayless. Also, Skip Bayless and Skip Bayless.

Latest posts by Asher Molk (see all)

20 Comments

  • My Squad : ALuck/MStaff/RRice/RBush/TRich/AMorris/TorreyS/DAmend/KThompk/JCameron/
    DJax/JGordon/TYHilton

  • My Squad : ALuck/MStaff/RRice/RBush/TRich/AMorris/TorreyS/DAmend/KThompk/JCameron/DJax/JGordon/TYHilton

    1. What’s a good trade or who are the players to trade from my team now?
    2. I was thinkin of multiple trades, how do they look?
    a. I offered Bush + thompkins for Welker + DMartin? He countered with Wayne+Martin. He also has MEgatron. What should I do?
    b. AlfMorris for Blackmon + CJSpiller/SJax. He is ready to give SJax or GBernard, but not CJ. Thoughts? He also has Garcon/Bryant/Decker/Nelson. WHats a good trade here ?
    c. How about Stafford + Bush + DJax for JCharles/AFoster + JThomas + BMarshall ? He also has SRidely. WHat’s a good offer?

    Can you help me decide, please?
    Thanks

    • 1. You have a really solid team. I wouldn’t mind if you dangled Hilton and Gordon for an elite WR1.
      2a. I’d say I’d lean toward the Wayne/Martin side, but if your gut tells you to keep Bush then I don’t have a problem with it- he’s a stud. Try to get Megatron.
      2b. Id want Alf and Blackmon. Try to trade one of your RBs for Nelson or Garcon and an RB or maybe for Bryant straight up.
      2c. I absolutely love that offer for you- get Charles. I like the idea of trading one of your QBs.

  • Our league has a 3 RB max so there’s a few good undrafted pickups available.

    I have: Ray Rice, Bilal Powell, Run DMC
    Available: David Wilson, Le’Veon Bell, Pierre Thomas, Jacquizz, Mcgahee, BJGE, Joique, Mendenhall, R.Hillman

    With McFadden hurt and Bilal now in a timeshare, do recommend I swap for anybody?

  • Should I send Julius Thomas for Alfred Morris? Roster is;

    Qb: rivers, Wilson
    Rb: bush, lynch, Wilson, deangelo Williams
    Wr: Julio jones, welker, roddy white, colston, amendola
    Te: graham, j Thomas
    K: haushka
    Def: Carolina

    Thanks!

  • HEY LOVE THE WEBSITE BTW, KEEP IT UP

    Im trying to make a move for David Wilson before he blows up. His owner mentioned possible packaging TY hilton and Willis Mcgahee to start negotiations. What sort of deal would you seek? 12 team ppr

    My team

    QB- Cam, Vick
    RB- Mccoy, Forte, tate, pead, mcgahee, snelling, vereen
    WR- Cobb, R White, Shorts, Hilton, K Wright,
    Te- Cammeron, Miller
    Def- Stream
    K- stream
    and one open bench spot i am trying to use wisely…

    Thank you in advanced!

    • I would definitely give Hilton and McGahee for David Wilson- giving mediocrity (McGahee) and inconsistency (Hilton on a run-first team, although I love him as a player) for a possible RB1. I’d do that trade and see if you can pick up a decent bye-week filler at WR, just in case. That’s the kind of move that could win you a ‘ship. Thanks for reading!

  • What about selling high on Reggie Bush? I just traded him, Brandon Bolden, and Tannehill for Fred Jackson (I have Spiller), Mike Vick (RG3 is my other QB), and Stevan Ridley. Thoughts?

    • Ooh, I think you made a mistake there. I couldn’t bring myself to trade Reggie Bush- he’s easily top-5 PPR back and an elite RB1 in standard too. Getting rid of Bolden and Tannehill shouldn’t hurt you and it was good you got FJax, but I don’t think you got enough in return for such an elite commodity.

  • Hi,

    Should i give Lacy for Desean in 0.5 PPR ?!

    Im quite loaded at RB an thin at WR.

    RBs: Martin/Spiller/Gio/Lacy/Wilson/Tate/Bryce Brown/Mcgee/Helu/Vereen

    WRs: AJ/Gordon/James Jones

    Start 2 WR, 2RB and 1 Flex (0.5 PPR)

    Tks!

    • In your case, absolutely do it.

  • I just did this deal, wondering your opinion on it.

    His: Spiller/FJax for
    My: Moreno/Mathews

    Here’s my team:

    QB: Stafford
    WR: AJGreen
    WR: Bryant
    WR: Decker
    RB: Forte
    RB: Moreno
    TE: Graham
    W/R: Gio
    W/R/T: Gordon
    BN: R.Wilson
    BN: Garcon
    BN: D.Wilson
    BN: CJ no K
    BN: Mathews
    BN: Bennett
    IR: A.Brown

    0.5 PPR, 6 points per TD, 3 point bonus at 85 yards receiving/100 yards rushing, 6 point bonus at 135 yards receiving/150 yards rushing

    • Since you got Spiller and FJax, pat yourself on the back. Well done, you robbed him.

  • 12 team 1ppr(wr/te)/ .5 (rb) bonus league fair trade?

    I give up spiller/f-jax/colston/fleener I get Green/Orange Julius/Matthews

    Current Roster
    QB – Romo
    WR – Bryant
    WR -Colston
    RB – Gore
    RB – Spiller
    TE – Fleener/H.Miller
    Flex – Gordon
    Bench L. Miller, F-Jax, K.Hunter, Bradshaw, Thompkins, Woods, Pryor

    After trade
    QB- Romo
    WR – Bryant
    WR – Green
    RB – Gore
    RB – Miller
    TE – Thomas
    Flex – Gordon
    Bench – Matthews, Hunter, bradshaw, Thompkins, Woods, h.miller, pryor

    Do it?

    • I think you should stay put, but its REALLY close. RB depth is incredibly important, and I find it hard to believe Spiller is going to continue his inconsistency. I think you have a great team either way, so if your gut says do it, then I’m not against it.

  • Asher — nice article as always. 2 questions. Thinking about making a buy low bid for Ray Rice (as recommended), should I trade away Ridley or LeVeon Bell (ie who do you think has the most value for ROY)? Also, got the Falcons DST this week, but thinking about picking up the Browns because Spiller is a GTD and FJax sprained his MCL. Would you go for it, or stick with the Falcons (or does it even matter)? Thanks!

    • Sorry for the late response. I think Bell has more value ONLY because he has a monopoly on that backfield- I like Ridley’s talent and situation more though, and he could easily turn it around. Congrats if you played the Browns D- if I’m being honest, I would’ve told you to start the Falcons D before that game. But you’re in great shape either way.

  • Love the article each week!

    Keep buying low on Stevan Ridley too? Been offered Ridley for Ryan Mathews in a PPR league…good deal right?

    • Thanks!

      I’m a little more wary about Ridley, especially with his injury. Hang tight for this week, and see if you can get him for even cheaper. But I wouldn’t say pulling the trigger is a *bad* move.

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