Buy Low, Sell High: Post Week 6
October 17, 2014 | Asher Molk
Check out The Fake Football Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Hello Fake Footballers! Asher Molk here, and I’m back for another wonderful year of helping you win your fake football leagues via smart and savvy trading. “Buying Low” and “Selling High” is quite a simple economic principal: give away commodities while their perceived value is greater than their actual value, and try to acquire commodities while their perceived value is lower than their actual value. In other words, trade bad players after good games for good players after bad games! Here are a few trends and nuggets of wisdom I encourage you to follow whilst trading:
– Look beyond the box score! Investigate why a mediocrely talented player did so well, or why a superstar did so poorly. Then ask yourself- are the scenarios that caused those outcomes likely to continue on a game-to-game basis? What is the long-term impact here? Statistics CAN LIE, so think long-term.
– A major trend in my articles (and hopefully on your fantasy teams) will be getting rid of averagely-talented players: plodding running backs who don’t make anyone miss or contribute in the passing game, or wide receivers who offer nothing after the catch, etc. More importantly, you will be trying to acquire explosive, dynamic talents who are capable of changing the game every time they touch the ball. TALENT IS MOST IMPORTANT!
– Trading away two decent/good players for one great player is almost always a great idea. Usually, the person getting the one better player wins the deal.
– From Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL on Twitter, give him a follow) of Rotoworld.com: Think in terms of draft value and ADP when you trade. If you are thinking of trading away Jamaal Charles for Alfred Morris and Kelvin Benjamin, think about if you would trade a top 2 pick for a 4th and 6th rounder. This practice should help give clarity to your trades!
– NEVER lead with your best or final trade offer! Instead, start small, even offer deals they probably won’t accept to start with. This doesn’t mean offer Mason Crosby for DeMarco Murray , but you never know what a person may say yes to, it’s often quite surprising. If you lead with your best offer, you have nowhere to go but down. Start by being a little optimistic…
– If there are quality players on your waiver wire that you want but you do not know whom to drop, let go of your kicker and/or defense for that player. You can always make a trade to make roster space, or make a game-time decision on whom you want to drop. A lot can happen in a week, and you don’t want to miss out on the next Victor Cruz or Alfred Morris just because you think Sebastian Janikowski will average 1 more point per game than Nick Novak.
– Target owners who are close to the bottom of the standings – they are probably the most willing to do a desperation move in order to shake up their team. Also, make sure to target players the owner is likely frustrated with.
Drew Brees: Most of us at the Fake Football and in the fantasy football Twitterverse were “late round QB” people- I cannot imagine very many of us used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Drew Brees, and for good reason: a 9:6 TD:INT ratio and a meager (for Brees) 8th in quarterback PPG scoring. I imagine that unless they drafted very well otherwise, many teams with Brees are on the bottom of the standings, desperate to climb their way up. I especially recommend this buy low to owners who are currently at the top of the standings and have QBs with unfavorable playoff matchups. His elite level of play for an extended period of time grants him the benefit of the doubt, and his upcoming schedule will give even more reason for hope. In Weeks 13-16, he gets Pittsburgh, Carolina, Chicago and Atlanta. He could win you playoff games on his own.
Jeremy Maclin: After starting the season out red-hot, Maclin has cooled down the past three games to the tune of 11 catches for 149 yards and just one score- an average of under 4 catches, 50 yards and a third of a TD per game. To be honest, I don’t think the Eagles can get much worse on the offensive side of the ball. Nick Foles has looked like maybe 60% of his 2013 self, the offensive line has been decimated by injuries, and only in their last game against the shell-shocked Giants did he finally look like “the real McCoy.” Despite all of this, Maclin has been the 9th best PPR wide receiver in the league this far (4th in targets) even though he has a ridiculously low catch percentage. Once the offense gets more efficient and healthy (the bye week will help both of these prospects), Maclin’s own efficiency will begin to catch up with his targets- a very scary prospect if you do not own him. I’m willing to bet Chip Kelly is going to fix a thing or two in their week off, and you don’t want to miss out on the aftermath.
Michael Floyd: It’s been incredibly difficult to come to a conclusion about Michael Floyd. First he posts over 100 yards with Palmer. Then a dud with Stanton. Then 100+ yards with Stanton. Then an even worse dud with Stanton/Thomas. And finally, he found the end zone on a mere 4 catches for 47 yards with Palmer finally back in the saddle. I’m still a huge believer in his talent and situation, and Palmer has shown he can really get Floyd the ball. It is abundantly clear that Floyd is probably the best offensive player on the Cardinals, and can dominate at every level of the field. I’d bet all of my fantasy winnings (however little that may be) that he’ll lead the Cardinals in targets the rest of the way. With an ever-improving Palmer and a finally competent offensive line, I’d consider him a top-16 option for the rest of the way.
Jason Witten: At first, I wanted to buy low on Jason Witten- I was convinced he was another version of Tony Gonzalez, an ageless wonder whose safety-blanket qualities would lead to a pretty decent PPR TE1. Instead, he’s 10th targets among tight ends, 14th in receptions, 16th in yards, and has 1 touchdown on the year- all without even having his bye week yet. With the Cowboys playing ball-control offense and running their passing game through Dez Bryant and deep shots to Terrance Williams, Witten is at best the 3rd option in this passing game. And this passing game? The one that was supposed to lead the league in attempts? It’s turned into the DeMarco Murray show…and it’s working. Witten is probably a decent bet for 3-4 catches per week and 40-60 yards, but you want more upside than that. You could argue he isn’t even a TE1 anymore- sell him after he scored a touchdown last week. Never a prolific touchdown scorer, we don’t know when that will happen again.
Torrey Smith: Torrey Smith fooled mostly everyone. Seemingly locked into the X position on a Kubiak offense, Flacco predicted 100 receptions for him. Steve Smith even admitted Torrey was the man, comparing his own role to Kevin Walter. And then…insanity. You know the rest of the story. But last week, it seemed as if the tide may be changing, and Torrey may be the featured one. While the fantasy points dictate that’s the case, further analysis will negate this notion. He only actually saw 5 targets on Sunday (one less than Steve, who had more catches and yards as well), and has had 3 other games with 8 targets. Simply put, his usage was the same as it’s always been this year. It just took the Buccaneers’ “defense” to have him take advantage. I do think the tide can still turn for Torrey, but if you can sell him high, I’d love to get rid of the headache.
Andre Holmes: He’s big. He’s fast. He’s strong. And he plays for….the Raiders. With a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball. What does that mean? You guessed it: inconsistency. I’m not saying Holmes isn’t going to be the featured player in the Oakland passing game- he is- but that is akin to saying you are the fastest runner in the nursing home. It’s not exactly a daunting feat. What makes him a prime sell-high candidate is not only his stats, but his hype before he exploded. Once a talented yet underutilized player is “freed”, his perceived value often soars past his actual value. I think that’s the case with Andre Holmes, and I bet there are people willing to give Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, and even package him for Jeremy Maclin or Calvin Johnson. I’m not one to rely on rookie quarterbacks, small sample sizes, and garbage-time for fantasy consistency. If you want to consistently win championships, you shouldn’t either.
Keep Buying: Marques Colston, Keenan Allen, Jordan Cameron, Reggie Bush, Isaiah Crowell, Fred Jackson
Keep Selling: Matt Asiata, Jordan Matthews, Brian Hartline, LeGarrette Blount, Eddie Royal, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steve Smith, Kendall Wright