2015 Strength of Schedule August 30, 2015  |  Chet


Strength of schedule is more than difficult to predict, but doesn’t need to be thrown out completely. There are plenty of anecdotal tales that have been woven that dismiss or encourage SOS, but in the end, it’s still a reference point that you can apply projection to. You don’t always have to throw out everything just because broad changes occur yearly. Within reason, there are elements of using it effectively for your draft planning as long as it’s not a crutch of that planning.

First, apply what you yourself project. The Jets were a poor pass defense in 2014, but accounting for their personnel moves this offseason, we’ll likely be avoiding quarterbacks and receivers against them this season. But because the strength of their defense is stopping the run while having high end cornerback play, they are also weak at the linebacker and safety position so I anticipate them to be a great matchup again for tight ends.

Inherently, we’re aware that the NFL is fluid to a higher degree than other sports because the season is so short and volatile. That said, I still put stock in some early season outlooks. As an example, I often build a stable of late round quarterback options. In that case, early season outlooks can have an impact when faced with the decision to grab Jay Cutler or Carson Palmer if those are my presented options.

Another way is if a skill guy has what I project to be a favorable opening slate which could inflate his stock, allowing me to make a trade up on investment early in the season. A player like LeSean McCoy may start out hot, but drastically cool down over the back half of the season. A guy like Joseph Randle could be a supreme value early, but fade late, tipping you off on selling him highly while he’s hot. You can also flip that scenario on its head as a guy like Golden Tate may not meet his high investment early on but may peak later in the season.

Below we have conveniently provided you a one stop reference point for all of your schedule panning. There are position by position tables and charts provided with last season’s results per game allowed (PPR scoring) for the opposing defense. You can sort and filter the tables as you please per week or use the heat maps provided to paint a picture for weak points or rough patches. At the very bottom is a team by team key and also a the full schedule for the NFL season that can used with the tables and charts. Again, SOS doesn’t need to be and shouldn’t be a crutch in your future planning; but you don’t always have to throw the baby out with the bathwater regarding SOS.

 

In the charts the numbers correspond to the ranking of the defense that team is playing. So if your team is playing a 32/Green team, that should be an easier game for that position player than if he was playing 1/Orange. So — 1 = Orange and 32 = Green. 1/Orange = Tough D, 32/Green = Weak D

 

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Quarterbacks

TM12345678910111213141516Wk1-8Wk8-16Wk14-16WK1-16
TB202981715BYE3221261830142129103120.322.223.321.4
WAS9102630212823BYE11291726183123021.020.521.020.7
CAR1582923BYE13014132032182921262117.121.622.720.0
DAL2630212911BYE2613023917321328220.617.214.319.9
PHI21182832292617BYE189236112223224.415.418.719.6
NO22231718302114262032BYE8172361521.418.414.719.5
ATL3026188322920237BYE14122317151723.316.016.319.4
NYG182132273018292311BYE32289171219.620.112.719.3
NE27215BYE18142893226224308202816.119.918.718.9
MIA3215228BYE2081123018281626191416.618.219.717.9
IND2282015811291724BYE212327158916.318.010.717.1
JAX17911142382BYE281620192014212912.020.921.316.7
OAK31653124BYE19282712620424131918.017.018.716.7
MIN761924BYE463110251321122312613.920.026.316.4
BUF141192620515BYE928114830321814.317.526.716.0
NYJ514309BYE321125152892620181118.014.916.315.7
KC8241333112276BYE24192251916515.514.513.315.6
GB311471019BYE241761231618252213.717.921.715.5
TEN23514BYE2921829171525152811811.717.315.715.3
HOU41723211415920BYE32829211142015.415.915.015.3
DEN1646122518BYE131443111192527313.416.318.315.2
CLE2820251916241022327BYE16371420.510.44.015.0
DET1912241223124BYE132530131029712.116.415.314.9
CHI132212546BYE1219102413732122311.916.922.314.9
STL132272213BYE57123116322623115.313.410.014.7
SD631252713251631BYE41524492513.416.012.714.6
SEA1013316331718BYE22727121651014.914.610.314.5
SF12272213261611021BYE1223153615.912.44.714.4
ARI2931710627165BYE1371012301316.410.118.313.8
BAL2425327572219BYE151059142716.511.310.713.5
CIN251916412BYE2758221052772413.415.019.313.5
PIT1171016192243255BYE1143241611.511.414.312.0

 

(QB SOS) CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

 

 

Running Backs

TM12345678910111213141516Wk1-8Wk8-16Wk14-16WK1-16
TB2728111830BYE532241623213228102221.623.120.021.8
CAR30112826BYE9232114275162832243221.122.129.321.7
HOU218263221301927BYE29428717212721.920.021.720.5
TEN262021BYE719321128183031304171119.420.010.720.3
ATL2324161152827266BYE21252618301820.021.322.020.3
WAS1910242332426BYE17281824162272319.719.417.319.5
NO326181623322124275BYE11182683020.418.621.319.2
NYJ20212319BYE5173130711192427161719.420.220.019.1
IND7427301117281813BYE32261230111917.820.120.019.0
JAX1819172126117BYE4127152721322817.019.427.018.3
DAL2423322817BYE249232619185144722.413.98.318.2
SD8292520121431122BYE230132193117.515.017.317.3
BUF21171924272030BYE194172112351622.612.114.717.0
NYG16325762316282617BYE5419182516.617.820.716.5
DET1525139329252BYE143123141028615.116.014.716.5
DEN128253116BYE1421222171531122913.918.124.016.4
KC111314292225128BYE13157311512016.813.812.015.7
BAL13312912206315BYE30102019921216.114.67.715.4
PHI321645282418BYE16192681773518.112.65.015.2
ARI2822610812120BYE92961025231413.417.020.714.9
NE12730BYE1621419524713231127415.614.814.014.9
SF251231424191032BYE93222029812.316.619.014.7
OAK291202213BYE1541225827213141514.913.314.014.7
MIN681513BYE28221031143293222410.618.616.314.6
MIA53074BYE271117723164124152114.414.220.014.1
GB229261015BYE13188252281631311.016.016.713.9
PIT1761011532293120BYE9212913110.419.114.313.8
CHI14393128BYE251510131465252613.115.418.713.7
SEA10142282922616BYE3612251201015.911.610.313.6
CLE42731151131032912BYE12969213.011.45.712.8
STL9512314BYE2062522129382699.914.314.312.8
CIN31151297BYE122011310201261311.011.910.311.5

 

Screen Shot 2015-07-24 at 7.02.59 PM

(RB SOS) CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

 

 

Wide Receivers

TM12345678910111213141516Wk1-8Wk8-16Wk14-16WK1-16
TB1627292017BYE31261373252627252423.720.625.321.7
CAR17292730BYE132523163172726132620.119.321.720.7
NO183020732265131631BYE292030101718.920.819.020.3
ATL32137293127163015BYE5113020172023.118.519.020.2
WAS21251332261930BYE427201372483223.716.921.320.1
DAL133226274BYE13132302120312319816.620.616.720.0
NYG7263181532727304BYE311921201119.120.417.319.3
IND819161729427202BYE26302217292117.520.922.319.1
ARI2724152510222814BYE13152511322320.615.522.018.3
TEN30145BYE82126292720176171942919.018.717.318.1
PHI2671931271320BYE721301048183120.416.119.018.1
JAX20214530298BYE19281612165262716.718.619.317.7
SEA25232410324157BYE1815221128142516.417.522.317.6
NE22817BYE7519213113823229161914.119.021.316.6
STL131221823BYE14151124283181030117.715.613.716.6
MIA3117819BYE16294832719281312517.714.210.016.5
BUF542113161417BYE211949293231712.919.023.316.1
SF11221823132812526BYE118241431017.615.19.015.8
NYJ1453221BYE3146178292113167416.113.49.015.2
CHI231816910BYE1112252231531113011.117.824.015.1
HOU92030265172116BYE319278451618.012.38.315.1
CIN61228918BYE2214291825142215212.317.913.015.0
MIN1510122BYE910242562326118241311.717.818.314.5
DET121121183119BYE23632232527158.420.022.314.5
CLE19166122822518322BYE283151915.812.48.313.8
OAK32814242BYE12192211101692231214.613.812.313.8
KC29223324112210BYE2128612281415.511.518.013.7
SD1031114222362824BYE9172921614.614.512.013.7
BAL2632214151812BYE17251421192211.515.110.713.4
GB2419152512BYE22010112410761812.612.010.312.9
DEN289101167BYE235924412622313.412.010.311.9
PIT4152528121893614BYE15322814.37.811.011.5
Screen Shot 2015-07-24 at 7.23.08 PM

(WR SOS) CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

 

Tight Ends

TM12345678910111213141516Wk1-8Wk8-16Wk14-16WK1-16
PHI932272862212BYE3282017241292819.419.919.319.7
STL1628192913BYE1023113114152917201619.719.617.719.4
GB311672354BYE30121711311732212916.622.227.319.1
SEA513311715312332BYE292319111410520.917.99.718.5
NO292012323926222528BYE21220171819.118.018.318.3
MIN2317430BYE717315211391629312218.419.727.318.3
NE19118BYE3226278282213032252718.716.218.017.9
BUF2624822251018BYE82724723283219.016.421.017.6
CLE272521414305291519BYE14152316719.417.315.317.6
NYG3292812333262024BYE28278121116.817.010.317.6
DEN14717112132BYE132673124421191516.417.818.317.5
ATL322322286252023BYE26112012181217.317.814.017.3
OAK1514103130BYE4271911172573013418.717.015.717.1
SF1119291322141659BYE16293110151716.116.514.017.1
MIA2818127BYE25224133227142242617.917.017.316.9
PIT24235144297152110BYE162615301415.118.419.716.9
NYJ102638BYE282421181282225322417.117.027.016.8
HOU7122092618825BYE15276124262515.618.625.016.6
CHI13291621717BYE114530132328112016.316.119.716.5
SD171511101913211431BYE71830782115.017.012.016.1
CAR182620BYE16326132528326922913.018.913.315.7
TB25621218BYE28922323269653114.315.914.015.6
BAL302115191023294BYE1851081671918.910.914.015.6
JAX12824262021BYE271425425269613.317.013.715.3
WAS8522392720BYE246122232311313.416.411.715.0
KC230131531111917BYE3041214141017.312.69.314.8
IND127251822461230BYE92019182814.414.89.314.7
DAL2239624BYE2216320812281327114.614.213.714.3
ARI63123517191410BYE16152351131315.612.09.014.1
CIN214147161BYE191022951019233011.716.324.014.0
DET41130162915117BYE1321313562315.411.411.313.8
TEN201026BYE18926121821182724210.914.417.713.6
Screen Shot 2015-07-24 at 7.31.02 PM

(TE SOS) CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

 

 

Key

(the higher the number, the easier the defense against that position)

Screen Shot 2015-07-24 at 7.09.20 PM

 

2015 NFL Schedule Grid

Screen Shot 2015-07-24 at 7.13.27 PM

8 Responses

  1. Lover of ALL things HRIBAR says:

    RICH, I LOVE YOU!

  2. Mike says:

    Great work Rich. Thanks for posting. I wanted to ask if I’m following the data correctly? For RB, you indicate in the sortable table that HOU has the third easiest schedule at 20.5 but in the Key color coded table near the bottom, it shows Houston as having the 11th hardest RB schedule? Thanks for clarifying. Mike

    • Chet says:

      Hi Mike,

      The Key is actually where the defenses rank against each position. So Houston ranked 11th against running backs last season instead of them having the 11th toughest schedule against RBs. So for weeks 1-16 Houston has the third easiest schedule with an average opponent ranking 20.5th against the run.

  3. TSmith says:

    Great analysis and will bookmark this in hopes it gets updated throughout the season.

    I love using stuff like this to settle tie-breakers between players in the same tier. And it’s a big reason why I seem to not be finding Leveon Bell on any of my teams…Between the suspension and schedule I’m just not seeing much to like about him.

  4. Ehab sukkar says:

    Hey quick question how does the rank represent? 1 is the best and 32 is the worst? Thanks and great work!

  5. Craig says:

    Incredible work – not just the amount of information, but the thoughtful approach to visual representation. Do you update these heat maps during the season? Would be great to see these re-ranked around midseason to help us gear up for the trade deadline and fantasy playoffs. Thanks again!

    • Rich Hribar says:

      Now that we know how to attack presenting this, I believe we can make quarterly updates to this in season. Weekly would be slight overkill, but we’ll definitely stick a pin in the idea of updating it.

  6. Andy says:

    Thanks to you and all thefakefootball crew for your great insights!

Leave a Reply

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