2013 Fantasy Football

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2013 Week 3 NFL Picks

posted by Neil Parker

Here are our 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks. To start the season, we’ve been awful, but after poking around the inter-ma-net I noticed that there hasn’t been a lot of success anywhere. On CBS only Jamey Eisenberg has a winning record against the spread. Obviously, he is my opponent in my FSWA matchup this week too.

Lovely.

Jason Willan has already outlined his Survivor Picks and Adam Cook has his weekly Lock, Toss Up and Underdog Set below. Jon “Mr. Checkdown” has the skinny on going to big on the Seahawks spread and I’ve scoured the lines and have a couple more picks.

I’m wishing you all the Fantasy Football success this week and some fun with our 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks.

 

Neil’s Three and Out

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

Cleveland has packed it in, apparently. So you should back the Vikings in what should be an easy victory.

However, the Browns’ defense is no joke and it isn’t like the Vikings are an offensive juggernaut. Adrian Peterson aside, of course. So don’t expect things to get ridiculous. The Browns might be able to find a way to post a few points, which might place anything beyond a 7 point win in risky territory.

All being said, the Browns have a cast of unproven and unheralded players on offense and even the mighty Willis McGahee and reinstated Josh Gordon aren’t capable of helping enough to win.

Adrian Peterson and the Vikings by 7 or more.

 

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals

I expect this to be among the best games of the weekend. The Bengals were a favorite early season pick of mine, to both make the playoffs and win 9 games, but I knew their schedule wasn’t favorable in the early going. Green Bay will be the ultimate test.

The Packers have been explosive on offense aren’t going to be stopped often. The Bengals defense is good and could be great when it counts the most, but limited Aaron Rodgers and the Packers doesn’t look probable. The Packers’ Wide Receivers are in tune with Rodgers and they can put up 30 points against anyone in the league.

The Benagls’ offense is what scares me. I expect them to slow down the Packers to a degree, but can they put up 24 or 27 points to win? I haven’t seen enough from anyone not named A.J. Green to suggest they can win in a shootout. Giovani Bernard is special too, but it’ll take a few more games before I fully believe in him.

Packers by 4, but straight up is the safest option.

 

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on the decline and with two checks in the loss column you’d have to expect a huge effort from the Steelers. But, will that be enough to slow down the Bears on offense firstly and secondly, can they score enough to win?

Chicago has fought hard to be 2-0 and certainly haven’t been a force, but they are undefeated and have all the pieces to strong together a strong season. They’re averaging 3 turnovers a game already and are posting over 27 points per game. The Steelers have scored 9 and 10, with only the Giants being worse on the ground.

This is a different Steelers team than we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. The jury is still out on how good Chicago is, but they’re good enough to pass this test.

Da Bears are in a class above the Steelers, get them by 3 before the line moves.

 

Adam’s ‘Real’ ‘Fake’ Football Predictions – LTU Style

Lock of the Week : Minnesota Vikings over the Cleveland Browns

The Seahawks over the Jaguars would be too easy and I’m sure everyone is tired of hearing how lopsided this game really is. The Browns trading away Trent Richardson this week was their latest move to try and get the #1 pick in the NFL Draft. Brian Hoyer is starting for the first time in a long time so I am not expecting the Browns to put over 17 points. The Browns defense can keep them in the game, but there is no way this team can pull it out in the end. This could be one of those Adrian Peterson games when he goes bananas and rushes for 200 plus.

Toss Up of the Week: Detriot Lions at the Washington Redskins

The Lions are the better team so far in 2013, but I don’t see the Redskins starting out 0-3 and losing two straight home games. This game could be really fun to watch with Matt Stafford and RG3 lighting up the scoreboard. Reggie Bush could be the X-factor. If Reggie Bush plays then he could push the Lions over the top. Let’s toss a coin: Heads = Redskins, Tails = Lions. The result is….tails! The Lions by a field goal.

Upset of the Week: San Diego Chargers over the Tennessee Titans

The Chargers and Phillip Rivers have looked surprisingly good this year. The Titans have as well though. They both narrowly lost to the Texans. However, the Titans win over the Steelers doesn’t look that impressive now and the Chargers beating the Eagles was shocking. The Titans are favored at home by about a field goal, so give me San Diego this week. Stay hot Phillip!

Have a Beef with Adam’s picks? Let him know on Twitter.

 

Jon’s Set the Spread

In my days as an NFL degenerate I’ve never seen anything quite like the spread on Seattle vs. Jacksonville this week. For Pick ‘Em and Survivor pools things are quite simple, you’re all over the Seahawks at home, write it in pen, don’t blink, move on.

When setting your own spread, though, things get complicated. This is an easy game to overbet. The excitement is there, the Seahawks just thrashed the 49ers at home, you’re worried about losing ground to your fellow poolies if you don’t take the home team by some kind of an absurd number… but it may not be the best play.
Vegas has the line, depending on your book, at around -19. Last year, Seattle won three home games by more than 20 points. Averaging a dismal 5.5 points per contest Jacksonville is an easy target. They’re facing a Seahawks D who has given up just 5 points on the year. They won’t score many this week, that much is known. However, given Seattle’s general desire to run more than throw at home and the fact that they may not go pedal to the floor in this game, a safer spread lies in the 14-17 range rather than playing on the wrong side of the betting line.
As bad as Jacksonville has looked, and as tough as it is to play in Seattle true trouncings of an opponent are rare and difficult to predict. Take Seattle by the two score plus and rest easy on game day, rather than sweating out a last minute, nonsense touchdown.

 

Good luck friends, have fun and please, feel free to let us know your 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks in the comments below.

Neil Parker

Loyal Leafs, Cubs, and Cowboys fan for decades. I wear the C for The Fake Hockey, in addition to contributing to The Fake Baseball and The Fake Football in more of a Timmy Try Hard role.

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1 Comment

  • Hey Neil, good article. Need a little help. I need to figure out who to hang on to for the rest of the season and would like you to rank the following players 1-3 in terms of ROY value. Mike Williams, Greg Jennings, Emmanuel Sanders. Thanks

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