Julio Jones The Marginal Sleeper
Finding a, “Sleeper,” in your fantasy football draft is not necessarily uncovering some diamond-in-the-rough player that goes from relative unknown to superstar between seasons (i.e. Cam Newton). You can also find players who make a smaller jump in statistical relevance, but still out-perform their projected draft slot (i.e. Lesean McCoy). Owners can even find sleepers in players who are already expected to progress, or, “Marginal Sleepers.” For instance, Julio Jones performed well enough in his rookie season (56 catches, 959 yards, and 8TDs) to warrant a draft projection somewhere between the 4th and 6th rounds this coming year. I see him as a potential sleeper regardless of that high draft expectation. Looking at his metrics and the situation surrounding his usage, I can see lots of room for improvement from 2011. Let’s take a closer look at him:
He posted a catch-rate of 56%, which is quite low. At Alabama he had a 72% rate in that department. Expecting an increase of 5%-10% seems reasonable in his second season with Matt Ryan and the offensive playbook. He had 96 targets in 2011 compared to a league-leading 181 for Roddy White, and, “The Ageless Wonder,” Tony Gonzalez ringing up 116. I find it doubtful that Roddy White leads the league again, and surely at SOME point Gonzalez will realize he is old. With both of those guys on the decline (perhaps not a steep decline, but a decline nonetheless) I think Julio stands to absorb some of their targets.
On top of all of this, Julio Jones only played in 13 games during the season, and in those 13 games he out-performed Roddy White from a fantasy perspective in 6 of them. He WILL progress in his second season due to a handful of factors such as natural maturation, developing a more solid rapport with Matt Ryan, having continuity in his offensive system, and the stagnation or decline in the talent levels of White and Gonzalez.
***Important Note*** - When I evaluate a player for fantasy, I think it is important not to get too caught up in the statistics. Making your draft selections purely on quantifiable aspects can be dodgy at best. You’ve got to use your, “gut,” to feel the player out. Now, to do that successfully you need to have knowledge of the player’s stats as well, so both methods go hand in hand. Everyone can accomplish this differently, but for me, I study all the statistical specifics for the players I’m interested in leading up to the draft, but to ensure I use my, “gut,” in the process I only take a list of names (along with an internet connection in case of an emergency) to the draft itself. This method has worked out quite well every year I’ve done it. – ***
So, once we have established that there is a decent statistical backing to suggest Julio Jones could perform at a higher level than he is currently expected (granted not by a ton, but by a margin wide enough to warrant your interest), and we have a pretty good, “gut,” feeling about him, we can take a look at the latest we would be willing to take him. Now, obviously at this early stage in the Fantasy Football offseason nobody knows who will go where, strength of schedule ratings mean generally nothing, and Free-Agency combined with the draft will certainly change the landscape of the NFL. In other words, you shouldn’t be overly concerned with the specifics just yet. As of now, just begin compiling a list of, “intriguing,” players, and in half a year when you are preparing for your draft, you can whip out that list and investigate what you think then.
