Scoring Settings Analysis – RB
Welcome to the final Scoring Settings Analysis piece for the 2011 season. Like a motley bunch of linebackers, we’ll be tackling the running backs this time around. Our constant scoring settings will be the same as those we used for wide receivers:
• 25 passing yards = 1 point
• Passing TD = 5 points
• Interception = -2 points
• 10 rushing yards = 1 point
• Rushing TD = 6 points
• 10 receiving yards = 1 point
• Receiving TD = 6 points
• Return TD = 6 points
• 2-pt conversion = 2 points
• Fumble lost = -2 points
Again, we’ll be looking out how the final running back rankings change based on the fantasy point value of a reception, whether it’s 1, 0.5, or 0 points. As with the wide receivers, we’ll also take a quick look to see which RBs benefited most in leagues using kick and punt return yardage as a stat category.
The following spreadsheet shows the total and per-game points scored by RBs for each reception point value in 2011.
Scoring Settings Analysis – RB
Some quick notes on navigating the spreadsheet:
1. The first tab amasses all the statistics and then calculates total fantasy points and fantasy points per game, but does not order or rank the players based on these numbers.
2. The second tab ranks the players by fantasy points per game under each possible scoring setup.
3. The third tab ranks the players by total fantasy points under each possible scoring setup.
4. The fourth tab is the same as the second tab, except the players are color-coded for easier identification of trends between scoring setups.
Fantasy Points per Game Trends:
• The top tier of running backs is pretty unsurprising, with Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy finishing the season as the top-3 RBs, regardless of scoring format. Meanwhile, in Tier 1A, Fred Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew rank #4 and #5 in all formats, respectively. MJD’s performance is particularly impressive considering his supporting cast of stiffs on the Jaguars.
• Despite his reputation as a pass-catching back, McCoy actually dropped from #2 to #3 in leagues awarding points for receptions, but that probably has more to do with the dominance of Foster and Rice than Shady’s lack of catches. More concerning for the Eagles’ ball carrier is the fact that he scored 20 total TDs in 2011 – a number very likely to regress in 2012.
• Fred Jackson’s universal #4 ranking is a bit of an enigma. On one hand, he was on pace for an excellent fantasy season before going down in week 11. If we disregard the game where he got hurt, his #4 ranking doesn’t change, but he gets a lot closer in PPG to the #3 player in all formats. On the other hand, C.J. Spiller performed well in Jackson’s absence and we have to assume that the Bills’ backfield will be more of a timeshare next season, which is bad news for F-Jax going forward.
• Speaking of timeshares, the Detroit backfield is going to be a hot mess in 2012. In a small sample size (six games), Jahvid Best finished inside the top 10 among running backs for all scoring setups in points per game. He was the #6 RB in 0.5 PPR and PPR. With that said, Kevin Smith was hot on his heals in points per game, finishing at #11 in non-PPR and #12 in both 0.5-PPR and PPR. Let’s not forget that Mikel LeShoure should be back next season after missing all of 2011 with a torn ACL. The safe play is to avoid drafting any Lions RBs in 2012, wait for the injury bug to find them all again, and pick up Maurice Morris off the waiver wire.
• From the ship’s log of Captain Obvious, Darren Sproles was a PPR tyrant in 2011. In non-PPR leagues, he ranked as the #16 rusher – impressive for a player of his hobbit-esque stature – but his 17.331 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues were good enough for the #9 rank and put him ahead of players like Adrian Peterson, Ryan Mathews, Marshawn Lynch, and Michael Turner. I’ll get to what he did in leagues using return yardage soon enough, but here’s a little teaser: the dude went bananas.
• A note on the limitations of ranking players based on points per game: games played can be a deceiving statistic. For example, Roy Helu played 15 games, but only had more than 10 carries in 4 games and only topped 15 touches in 5 games. After Tim Hightower tore his ACL in week 7, fantasy owners were treated to a classic Shanahan production starring Ryan Torain in weeks 8-11 before the team committed to Helu as the feature back in week 12. In his four weeks as the undisputed starter for the Redskins, Helu averaged 15.125 PPG in non-PPR, 17.125 PPG in 0.5-PPR, and 19.125 PPG in PPR. Assuming Helu returns as the featured runner for Washington, he will be a top-20 or even top-15 RB in 2012 despite finishing no better than 29th in fantasy points per game this past season.
• Despite DeAngelo Williams’ huge contract coming into the season, Jonathan Stewart was the Panthers running back to own in 2011, especially in PPR formats.
• Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall were first-round fantasy picks in virtually every league. Both players failed to deliver on those expectations, with Mendy finishing at #21 in standard scoring leagues and CJ2K coming in at #22. For leagues counting receptions, they trended in different directions, though. Mendenhall droped to #24 in 0.5-PPR and #26 in PPR, while Johnson climbed to #19 in 0.5-PPR and #18 in PPR. Now I understand there’s a pretty big difference between taking CJ with the #4 overall pick and getting Mendy with a pick in the 9-12 range, but Mendenhall should be considered as much of a bust as Johnson.
• Ryan Grant and James Starks: equally worthless.
• Here’s a list of some other RBs whose PPR value was significantly higher than their non-PPR value: Matt Forte, Mike Tolbert, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Roy Helu, C.J. Spiller, Felix Jones, LaDanian Tomlinson, Marcel Reese, Maurice Morris, and Javon Ringer. Of those players, Marcel Reese is the most interesting potential sleeper for 2012, considering Darren McFadden’s fragility and the fact that Michael Bush is heading into free agency.
• Turning things around, here are some RBs who were more valuable in standard scoring leagues than PPR leagues: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Turner, Beanie Wells, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Willis McGahee, Cedric Benson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory, Marion Barber, and Daniel Thomas. The majority of these names are pretty unexciting, but if I had to pick some potential values from that list for 2012, I’d lean towards the young guys. Mark Ingram and Daniel Thomas both disappointed this season, but with a year of reps under their belts and their platoon-mates a year older, they each possess potential for a breakout next season.
As a bonus, if you’re in a league that uses kick and punt return yardage as a stat category, you can mine a small amount of extra knowledge from the spreadsheet. On the “Data” tab, the players are ranked for a 0.5-PPR league that also awards 1 point for every 30 return yards. I’ve pasted the generic 0.5-PPR total-points rankings to the right of the data grid and highlighted the players that gain value when using return yardage. Here’s a brief breakdown:
• With the return yardage bonus, Darren Sproles only moves up one spot in the total points rankings, from #5 to #4. However, if we average out his 1383 return yards over 16 games, it translates to an extra 2.881 fantasy points per game. Adding that to his 0.5-PPR average of 14.644 bumps his points per game up to 17.525, which moves him from #13 in the 0.5-PPR average points rankings up to #6, right behind MJD. In the average rankings for PPR, Sproles jumps from #9 to #5 with his extra return yardage points, putting him ahead of MJD.
• All of the running backs in the top-60 who benefit from return yardage points only do so marginally. Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Dexter McCluster, Felix Jones, and Danny Woodhead each end up within four spots of their ranking in leagues without return yards. In my wide receivers piece, I noted how McCluster’s value was helped by Jamaal Charles going down early in the season. The late-season injury to DeMarco Murray similarly inflated Felix Jones stats. Then again, it’s possible that the emergence of Murray will relegate Felix Jones to more return duty in addition to being the Cowboys 3rd-down back. Keep an eye on his role in 2012, as he may still have value in PPR leagues with return yardage.
• The running backs who made big jumps in the rankings for return yardage leagues were LaRod Stephens-Howling, Leon Washington, Deji Karim, and Joe McKnight. Stephens-Howling and Washington both cracked the top-50 and McKnight came close (#55), but in the end, their production simply isn’t consistent enough to rely upon, even if your league uses return yards. Ultimately, most of the relevant return men are wide receivers (or DBs if you play in an IDP league with return yards).
Here are my generic top-30 running backs for 2012:
1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Matt Forte
5. Darren McFadden
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. Jamaal Charles
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Ryan Mathews
10. Fred Jackson
11. DeMarco Murray
12. Roy Helu
13. Darren Sproles
14. Chris Johnson
15. Michael Turner
16. Ahmad Bradshaw
17. Frank Gore
18. Rashard Mendenhall
19. Steven Jackson
20. Reggie Bush
21. Beanie Wells
22. Jahvid Best
23. Shonn Greene
24. Jonathan Stewart
25. Michael Bush
26. LeGarrette Blount
27. Cedric Benson
28. Toby Gerhart
29. Mike Tolbert
30. Mark Ingram
That does it for the Scoring Settings Analysis series as well as regular fantasy football content from yours truly. I’ll be back periodically during the offseason, but with baseball season looming, I’ll be doing most of my fantasy writing for the TheFakeBaseball.com. If you like the content you’ve found here in the football wing of our fake online mansion, take the fake elevator down to the baseball basement, where we’ll be crunching all the numbers necessary to get you to the top of your fantasy baseball league. Until next time, thanks for reading and feel free to post any questions or feedback for me in the comments or on Twitter @gregsauce.
About gregsauce
Greg Smith writes for TheFakeFootball.com and TheFakeBaseball.com. He can be found on Twitter @gregsauce.
