How Commitment Issues Might Shape Your 2012 Fantasy Football Teams
So it’s the end of another regular season in the NFL. The playoffs will keep us riveted for another month, then we’ll limp through the rest of winter using basketball and especially the NCAA tournament as crutches until the draft, a brief highlight. Eventually the NBA playoffs will take us to free agency and the beginning of summer will distract us up until the 2012 pre-season. There’s a lot to reflect on and tons of good stuff to read about the 2011 season. I keep coming back to the idea of commitment between teams, players, and coaches and how that might affect your fantasy team next year.
Personally, I suck at commitment. Football is my favorite sport, but I don’t have one team I always root for. People hate this about me, of course, but I like keeping my options open. I watch all of the games anyway, don’t have to deal with any fantasy-reality conflicts, and get on and off as many bandwagons as I want. Sometimes I think I enjoy the game more than a lot of my friends for this reason. However I do live in Upstate NY and a lot of them are Bills fans, so that’s not necessarily saying much. In the interest of full disclosure, I also can’t commit to an all-time favorite movie, song, band, color, book, food, or anything else you can think of (except a TV show—it’s The West Wing), and of course, I’m single. I’m perfect for fantasy football.
So when it comes to draft day, I’m very careful to avoid picking guys that I had the prior year. I’ve done it a couple of times, most recently with Mike Wallace, which worked out pretty well, but in general I aim to start with a brand new team each year. In contrast, there are always guys at my drafts talking up players they want specifically because they had them the previous year and they were so good. But I get a bad feeling about putting all my eggs in one basket, relying on the same guys to be productive, and missing out on what else is available. This is relevant for both fantasy and real football though—how much can you rely on the guys that were good last year?
Thanks to the 2011 CJ2K debacle, a lot has been said about how long to stick with your high draft picks in fantasy as far as starting or sitting week to week. I’m thinking about season-to-season reliability. Early rankings have CJ1K as a RB5-7 for 2012. I might actually jump on that. He was awful this year, so with all his raw talent and relative health, what are the chances he’s this bad again next year? I’ve also never owned him and that list is getting shorter and shorter… Contrast to LeSean McCoy, a probable RB1-3 in 2012 drafts who was outstanding this season but based on history, he probably can’t post those numbers a second straight year. He’s also never had a serious injury despite the heavy workload. (I had him last year so I have to justify not being interested). Whether you trust a solid player for another year (Rice, Foster, McCoy) or whether you were betrayed by a guy that still has potential (CJ1K, Finley), your own commitment issues will undoubtedly shape your team next year.
A related issue that I’ve typically overlooked when deciding between certain fantasy players is the status of the commitment between a player and his team. I mean things like did he just sign a huge contract? Is he going to be a free agent in 2013? I think we could learn something about these issues from the season that just ended. There were a couple of interesting guys who were hoping for new contracts at the beginning of this year; Fred Jackson and Matt Forte were both in line for a contract renewal/revision. Both started the year on fire, especially Jackson. He played 10 weeks and still finished just out of the top 10 fantasy scoring RBs. Forte was essentially the centerpiece of the Bears offense until he got hurt. We’d like not to think that players play differently depending on their contract status, but in reality, they’re playing for their future and that should matter to us fake footballers as much as it does to real owners and coaches.
Clearly, commitment can affect performance. When you want a commitment, you put forth your best effort, you try to impress in order to earn it. Case in point:
What’s the difference between a wife and a girlfriend? 45 pounds.
What’s the difference between a boyfriend and a husband? 45 minutes.
Once you have a commitment, it’s easy to reside in the comfort and security of that and it’s possible the level of play drops off. Again, I’d like not to believe this was the case in Buffalo this year, but what the hell happened after Fitzpatrick signed that huge deal? What a disappointment. Other big contracts this year-Adrian Peterson, A. Haynesworth, Andre Johnson. Not spectacular production based on the numbers; AP got $100 million over 7 years for example. After a very solid year in 2011 (until his injury), I’d bet All Day looks more like a half day next year or at some point over the next 6 years. I just feel like that money is for past performance, more so than future potential. Santonio Holmes had a pretty mediocre year—probably even worse in reality than in fantasy—after getting a 5-year, $50 million deal. Now that he’s shown his true colors, what’s going to happen with that situation? Nothing good, I bet. Based on some of this year’s results, I’d say it’s a much better strategy to choose the player looking for a new deal over the guy that just landed one.
Matt Flynn, Peyton Hillis, Reggie Wayne, Laurent Robinson, Vincent Jackson, Robert Meachem, and Marshawn Lynch are just a few interesting names that enter free agency this year. Lynch made his case for a big deal, but can he sustain Beast Mode? I’m probably not reaching for him but guarantee someone will. Flynn also put on a hell of a show in week 17, but is one game enough to make bank with one of the many struggling franchises? He deserves a shot at being the starter somewhere if he can avoid the franchise tag in GB. What about on your fantasy team? In my 2QB league, depending on the system he winds up in (hoping for SEA), I’d take him in the middle rounds. Another whole aspect that gets difficult to predict is the chemistry. A great system can make a player great, but if he lands a deal with a new team, will that chemistry follow him? Compatibility is a huge factor to consider when you’re trying to predict who will be worth their shiny new deal.
If I were to consider working on my commitment issue for 2012, I’d draft Drew Brees again. I’d tell people my favorite color is yellow (it almost is, except that I can’t wear it), and that my favorite band is The Gaslight Anthem (it could be, but it’s too soon to tell for sure). One thing I’m definitely committing to is finding out who’s due for a new contract AFTER the 2012 season. That’s the guy I’ll be reaching for this summer.
About Renee Miller
Renee M. Miller, Ph.D works at the Department of Brain and Cognitive Science at the University of Rochester and is a fan of real and fake sports.
