2012 Fantasy Football

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2012 NFL Strength Of Schedule: Running Backs

posted by Chet

Hello Mr. and Mrs. Fake Football player. The 2012 schedules are out and we shall begin analyzing them into the ground! For the most part I’m not a big strength of schedule guy but I’m going to do a few different things here to see how it goes.

This first stat attack looks at team defenses against the run for 2011.  I took a handful of stats, ranked them and then averaged them out for a total ranking. You can see that San Francisco dominated all categories and Tampa Bay did not. Does that mean we’ll see the exact same thing this season? No way. Do teams go from worst to first at a flip of a switch? In rare cases maybe, but so rare I’m not going to cry about it. I think these numbers could possibly be tie breakers for certain running backs or help you take fliers on others.  Like so:

I then took that number and matched it up for the 2012 schedule like so:

You can see that Atlanta has the easiest schedule in theory. Michael Turner is your goal line back and will get you points. This may make him a little safer in my mind but also give Jacquizz Rodgers a little boost. The combo of the two on your team could be a nice balance between safe if healthy and safe if healthy’s back up.

Chris Johnson has the worst schedule but at this side of the spectrum I don’t get as worried. If your running back is good enough I think they can overcome a tough schedule. Is Chris Johnson good enough? Well, that’s a different question. I’m wary, but not predicated on his schedule.

So this tool is suspect, but not as suspect as calculating strength of schedule by inane things like records. So take it for what it is.

After I do this I will look at just the defensive stats from the last half of the 2011 season and see how that compares to a full season of stats.

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Chet

Chet has written for the N.Y. Times: Fifth Down Blog, Rotoworld, Fanduel Insider and Razzball. He is extremely/obsessively active on Twitter and likes cottage cheese.
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1 Comment

  • Love all these stats, I think this helps strategy for sure…one thing I noticed was you were off on Seattle, listing them going up against the 49ers D in weeks 7 & 16 as playing the #11 Defense, instead of #1

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